サウジＶＳイラン 断交は中東の混迷深めないか

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Middle East troubles deepen as rift between Saudi Arabia, Iran grows
サウジＶＳイラン　断交は中東の混迷深めないか

The action poured cold water on the efforts of the international community to end the Syrian civil war.
　シリア内戦終結を目指す国際社会の努力に水を差す行為と言えよう。

Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunni Muslim world, broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, a major Shiite power. Bahrain and Sudan followed Saudi Arabia in severing diplomatic ties with Iran, and Kuwait and other countries recalled their ambassadors from Tehran.
　イスラム教スンニ派の盟主サウジアラビアが、シーア派大国イランとの国交を断絶した。バーレーンやスーダンはサウジに追随してイランと断交し、クウェートなども駐イラン大使を召還した。

The Yemeni civil war also has been turned into a proxy war between the administration of Sunni President Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, and pro-Iranian Shiite armed forces. Iran lambasted Saudi Arabia, saying its embassy in Yemen had suffered damage in Saudi airstrikes.
　イエメン内戦も、サウジが支援するスンニ派のハディ政権と、親イランのシーア派武装勢力の代理戦争と化している。イランは、在イエメン大使館がサウジ軍の空爆で被害を受けた、と非難した。

If hostility deepens between Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of which are major oil-producing countries in the world, it is feared that their deteriorating relationship could influence the crude oil market and global economy. Both countries must restrain themselves and swiftly attempt to calm the situation.
　世界有数の産油国であるサウジとイランの確執が深まれば、原油市場や世界経済への影響も懸念される。両国は自制し、沈静化を急がねばならない。

Peace negotiations aimed at bringing about a ceasefire and transfer of power in Syria are expected to be held in late January. A situation should be avoided in which Iran, which supports the administration of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Saudi Arabia, which demands Assad’s resignation, intensify their invective, with the result that the negotiations merely spin around in circles.
　今月下旬には、シリアの停戦と政権移行に向けた和平協議が予定される。アサド政権を支援するイランと、「アサド退陣」を求めるサウジが反目を強め、協議を空転させてはならない。

The deepening of the Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict is causing further disarray in the Middle East. This is a serious situation.
　スンニ派とシーア派の宗派対立の拡大は、中東の一層の混迷につながる。憂慮すべき事態だ。

If the Syrian civil war is prolonged, the sweeping operation to eliminate the Sunni extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) will be delayed and the outflow of refugees to Europe will continue.
　シリア内戦が長引けば、スンニ派の過激派組織「イスラム国」の掃討が滞り、欧州への難民流出にも歯止めがかからなくなる。

Execution of cleric

Saudi Arabia cut its diplomatic relations with Iran because the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was attacked by rioting Iranians.
　サウジが断交した理由は、テヘランのサウジ大使館がイラン人暴徒に襲撃されたことである。

Ensuring the safety of foreign diplomatic missions is an obligation under international law. Iran’s security system, which could be regarded as conniving at the rioters’ intrusion into the embassy’s premises, is problematic.
　外国公館の安全確保は国際条約で義務付けられている。侵入を黙認したとも見なされるイランの警備体制には問題があろう。

However, the conflict was triggered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of a noted Shiite cleric for leading demonstrations criticizing the Saudi royal family.
　だが、対立の発端は、王家を批判するデモを主導したとして、著名なシーア派指導者をサウジが処刑したことにある。

Iran called for the cleric to be pardoned by Saudi Arabia and the United States also opposed the execution on humanitarian grounds, as it feared the situation would be aggravated. Saudi Arabia bears very heavy responsibility for executing the cleric in spite of these moves.
　イランは指導者の赦免を要求し、米国も人権問題や事態悪化の懸念から処刑に反対していた。それにもかかわらず、死刑を執行したサウジの責任も重い。

Saudi King Salman does not follow the traditional moderate line of the royal family but instead aggressively intervenes in conflicts. Behind this may be distrust toward the United States’ Middle East strategy, as the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama shifts its focus toward improving relations with Iran and downgrading the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
　サウジのサルマン国王は、王家の伝統的な穏健路線を踏襲せず、紛争への積極的な介入が目立つ。オバマ米大統領が中東戦略の軸足をイランとの関係改善に移し、米・サウジ同盟を軽視しているとの不信感が背景にあるのだろう。

Lifting of sanctions against Iran by the United States and European countries, based on the nuclear agreement, is expected to start as early as this month. Saudi Arabia’s hard-line policy is the result of urgent concern that if Iran resumes exporting crude oil, the current low oil prices could sink further and the deterioration of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal condition would accelerate.
　核合意に基づく米欧のイラン制裁解除は、今月にも始まる見込みだ。イランが原油輸出を再開すれば、原油安が一段と進み、サウジの財政悪化が加速するとの危機感も強硬策を後押ししている。

The United States, which plays a role in maintaining stability in the Middle East, can only exert a limited influence on Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the circumstances, will Russia, which is prepared to act as an intermediary in the Saudi-Iran conflict, be the only player to boost its presence in the region?
　中東の安定維持を担う米国がサウジとイランに限定的な影響力しか持てなくなっている。このまま、仲介の意向を示したロシアの存在感が高まるだけなのか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 8, 2016)