イラン制裁解除 合意履行を中東安定へ生かせ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Use implementation of Iran N-deal to build stability in Middle East
イラン制裁解除　合意履行を中東安定へ生かせ

How to draw Iran into the world community and bring stability to the Middle East, which has been thrown into an increasing state of confusion? A crucial moment lies ahead to tackle this challenge.
　イランを国際社会にいかに引き込み、混迷を深める中東情勢の安定につなげるか。これからが正念場である。

Iran and six other countries — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — have announced the implementation of a nuclear deal reached last July that called for lifting sanctions by the United States, the European Union and the U.N. Security Council in return for Iran’s downsizing of its nuclear facilities.
　米英仏独露中の６か国とイランは、イラン核施設の縮小と引き換えに、米国や欧州連合（ＥＵ）、国連安全保障理事会の制裁を解除する昨年７月の核合意の履行を発表した。

Iran has already transferred most of its stored low-enriched uranium to Russia and removed two-thirds of 19,000 centrifugal separators for enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed this in an on-site inspection.
　イランは既に、貯蔵していた低濃縮ウランの大半をロシアに搬出し、濃縮用の遠心分離器約１万９０００基の３分の２を撤去した。国際原子力機関（ＩＡＥＡ）の査察官が現地で確認した。

This would extend the period needed for Iran to complete the production of nuclear weapons from a range of “two to three months” to a range of “one year or more” if the country undertakes it. The IAEA maintains surveillance, and sanctions will be reimposed if violations are found. This can be lauded as a measure to put the brakes on nuclear development to a certain degree.
　イランが核兵器製造に着手しても、完成までの期間は「２～３か月」から「１年以上」に延びた。ＩＡＥＡが監視し、違反があれば制裁は再発動される。核開発への一定の歯止めと評価できよう。

U.S. President Barack Obama said the world would be “more secure.” To prevent Iran from moving to become a nuclear power after the 15-year period for implementation of the deal ends, it is essential for the United States and other related countries to support Iran’s moderate reform policy line.
　オバマ米大統領は「世界はより安全になった」と強調した。１５年間の合意履行期間終了後、イランが核保有に動き出さないよう、米国など関係国が穏健改革路線を後押しすることが欠かせない。

Given the release of U.S. citizens, including a reporter, who had been held by Iran, the channel between the two countries with no diplomatic relations has strengthened.
　イランが拘束していた米国人記者らが解放され、国交のない米国とイランのパイプは一層太くなった。

How to use this to end the civil war in Syria and wipe out the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militant group is now the question.
シリア内戦の終結や過激派組織「イスラム国」の掃討などにどう生かすかが問われる。

Rebuild alliance

Iran, a major Shiite-dominated Muslim country, supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and has been intensifying its confrontation with Saudi Arabia, a leading country of Sunni Muslims, which calls for the ouster of Assad. Israel is also nervous about ballistic missile development by Iran, a country which is hostile to it.
　イスラム教シーア派大国のイランはシリアのアサド政権を支援し、「アサド退陣」を求めるスンニ派の盟主サウジアラビアとの対立が先鋭化している。イスラエルは、敵対するイランの弾道ミサイル開発にも神経をとがらせる。

Washington has announced additional sanctions against Iran over its missile development, but Saudi Arabia and Israel have become deeply distrustful of the United States. Obama must push ahead with reestablishing the alliance with the two countries.
　米国はミサイル関連で対イラン追加制裁を発表したが、サウジとイスラエルの対米不信は根深い。オバマ氏は、両国との同盟関係の再構築も進めねばならない。

Iran will resume crude oil exports and expand transactions significantly with foreign financial institutions and businesses, which had been subject to a de facto ban due to sanctions imposed by the United States. Crude oil bills said to total $100 billion and other funds, which have been frozen in bank accounts of foreign countries, will become accessible.
　イランは原油輸出を再開し、米国の制裁で事実上禁じられていた外国金融機関、企業との取引が大幅に拡大する。計１０００億ドルとされる原油代金などの外国口座の資金も凍結が解除される。

Iran’s crude oil reserves rank fourth in the world, and its natural gas reserves rank first. Other countries place high expectations on the country’s market, sustained by its rich natural resources and population of nearly 80 million people.
　原油埋蔵量が世界４位、天然ガスは１位という豊富な資源と、８０００万人近い人口を抱える市場に対する各国の期待は大きい。

Japan, which has concluded an investment agreement with Iran, expects diversification of its sources for crude oil procurement, an increase in automobile exports and an entry into plant facilities construction and management. Efforts must be made to promote information gathering and realize participation in the Iranian market.
　投資協定締結で合意している日本は、原油調達先の多角化や自動車などの輸出増加、プラント進出を見込む。情報収集を進め、市場参入に結びつけたい。

Of concern is a scenario in which crude oil prices drop further with Iran producing more, thereby causing the worsening of economic conditions in oil-producing countries and global declines in stock prices. If Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a continued struggle for hegemony in the Middle East, neither the abatement of regional tensions nor the stability of the world economy can be expected.
　懸念されるのは、イランの増産で原油安が進み、産油国の経済悪化と世界的な株安を招く事態である。サウジとイランが覇権争いを続ければ、中東情勢の沈静化も、世界経済の安定も望めまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 19, 2016)