台湾総統選 対中急接近が生んだ蔡新政権

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Rapid rapprochement with China led to new administration in Taiwan
台湾総統選　対中急接近が生んだ蔡新政権

The people of Taiwan have applied the brakes to rapid rapprochement with China.
　中国への急接近に台湾住民がブレーキをかけたと言えよう。

In the presidential election in Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, chair of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — the biggest opposition party — won by a wide margin over her main rival, namely Chu Li-luan. Chu is chair of the ruling Nationalist Party, which has pursued a policy of bringing about reconciliation with China. The election marked the first change of government in eight years.
　台湾総統選で、「台湾独立」志向が強い最大野党・民進党の蔡英文主席が、対中融和を進めてきた与党・国民党の朱立倫主席らに大差をつけて、当選した。８年ぶりの政権交代である。

Concern that Taiwan might be swallowed up by China if Taiwan’s reconciliatory policy toward China continued at the current pace may have expanded public support for Tsai.
　このままのペースで対中融和が続けば、中国に呑のみ込まれてしまいかねない。そんな不安が、蔡氏の支持を拡大したのだろう。

In the previous presidential election held four years ago, Tsai asserted, “Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country” and was defeated by Taiwan’s current president, Ma Ying-jeou.
　蔡氏は、４年前の前回総統選で、「台湾は既に主権独立国家」と主張し、馬英九総統に敗れた。

As Taiwan has increasingly become economically dependent on China, concern over possible deterioration in relations between Taiwan and China has spread among business and other circles.
中国への経済依存が強まる中、経済界などで対中関係悪化への懸念が広がったからだ。

Tsai’s election strategy this time proved effective. She repeatedly reiterated her pledge to maintain the status quo in relations with China — not to seek independence or unification — while suppressing the pro-independence tone of the DPP.
　今回は、民進党の「独立」色を封印し、「独立」でも「統一」でもない「現状維持」の方針を繰り返し訴える戦術が奏功した。

Public opinion polls showed that the majority of people in Taiwan support maintaining the status quo.
世論調査によると、台湾住民の大半は、「現状維持」を望んでいる。

In her victory speech, Tsai said, “Our message to the international community is that democracy is deeply ingrained in Taiwan.”
　蔡氏は「台湾に民主主義が浸透していると、国際社会に伝えることができた」と勝利宣言した。

Imbalance spurs resentment

The Nationalist Party’s Chu has touted to voters the stability in Taiwan-China relations, in light of the first summit talks between Taiwan and China held in November. Yet there was deep resentment among the people that the fruits of closer economic ties with China have been felt only by the wealthy.
　国民党の朱氏は、昨年１１月の初の中台首脳会談を踏まえ、中台関係の安定をアピールしてきた。だが、住民には、経済緊密化の恩恵が一部の富裕層にしか及んでいないという反発が根強かった。

The Nationalist Party also suffered a major defeat in polls to elect legislators, held simultaneously with the presidential election. This has been attributed to a growing sense of “Taiwanese identity” among the young generation, the perception that China and Taiwan are separate.
　国民党は、総統選と同時に行われた立法委員（国会議員）選でも大敗した。中国と台湾は別だとする「台湾人意識」が若い世代の間で高まったためとみられる。

The DPP has won a majority in the legislature for the first time, which is expected to lead to a stable administration.
　民進党は初めて単独過半数を獲得し、安定政権へ道筋をつけた。

The New Power Party, led by young Taiwanese who opposed Taiwan’s policy toward China and unlawfully occupied the parliament in 2014, also won seats. This indicates that the new party has absorbed those who were dissatisfied with the Nationalist Party-led administration.
２０１４年、対中政策に反対し、立法院（国会）を占拠した若者ら中心の新党「時代力量」も議席を得た。国民党政権への不満の受け皿になったことを示している。

The urgent challenge for Tsai is to achieve economic development that will be felt among the Taiwanese people, while stabilizing Taiwan’s relations with China.
　蔡氏にとっては、対中関係を安定させつつ、経済発展を達成し、その成果を台湾住民に実感させられるかどうかが喫緊の課題だ。

It is worrisome that Tsai has not accepted the “1992 consensus,” under which both China and Taiwan recognized the “One China principle.” China’s administration under President Xi Jinping, which aims to eventually realize the unification of China and Taiwan, has indirectly warned that unless Tsai recognizes the 1992 consensus, there will be no “status quo.”
　蔡氏の不安要素は、中台双方が「一つの中国」の原則を認めたとされる「１９９２年合意」を受け入れていないことだ。
　将来的な「統一」を狙う習近平政権は間接的な表現ながら、９２年合意を認めなければ、「現状維持」はできないと警告している。

Should Tsai continue to refuse to endorse the 1992 consensus, China is likely to apply pressure by restricting cross-strait economic exchanges, thus rocking the new administration. China’s trump cards may include curbs on Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan and direct flights between China and Taiwan.
　蔡氏が９２年合意を拒否し続けるのなら、経済交流に圧力をかけ、新政権を揺さぶるつもりではないか。台湾を訪れる中国人観光客や旅客機の直行便の制限などもカードの一つだろう。

The future course of the cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan will affect the stability of East Asia. China must respond appropriately.
　台湾海峡の行方は、東アジアの安定に関わる。中国に求められるのは、責任ある対応である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 17, 2016)