景気の行方―攻めの機運をそぐなかれ

2011/02/16
--The Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 15
EDITORIAL: Japanese economy
景気の行方―攻めの機運をそぐなかれ

Concerns about a double-dip recession--sliding back into recession after a short-lived recovery--have mostly dissipated.
　景気回復が失速する「二番底」の懸念は、杞憂（きゆう）だったようである。

As widely expected, Japan's gross domestic product contracted in the October-December quarter from the previous three months, according to preliminary government data released Monday. The decline was blamed mainly on the wearing-off of the effects of the government's economic stimulus measures, such as the eco-point program to promote sales of energy-efficient home electric appliances.
　きのう発表された昨年１０～１２月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）統計の１次速報は、家電のエコポイントなど政策効果が縮小したため、大方の予想通り前期比マイナスだった。

But key economic indicators, like industrial output, clearly suggested that the economy remains on a recovery path.
だが鉱工業生産など指標の動きをよく見れば、回復軌道にあることは明らかだ。

Japan's rebound has been supported primarily by economic growth in emerging countries.
　復調を支えているのは、まず何より新興国の成長だ。

Aggressive efforts by Japanese companies to capitalize on swelling demand in these countries, such as developing new products tailored to the fast-growing markets and ramping up investment for expansion, are beginning to pay off.
発展する市場向けの新製品開発や投資拡大など民間企業の攻めの姿勢が、外需を着実に取り込み、結果を出し始めている。

Another piece of good news for the Japanese economy is receding fears about a U.S. economic downturn. The Federal Reserve Board's second round of quantitative easing, called "QE2," and President Barack Obama's decision to extend Bush-era tax cuts in a bold compromise with the Republicans have combined to stoke consumer spending.
　米国の景気後退懸念が和らいだことも大きい。「ＱＥ２」と呼ばれている連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）による金融の量的緩和と、オバマ政権が共和党との大胆な妥協でブッシュ減税の継続に踏み切ったことが、消費意欲を刺激した。

The New York Stock Exchange is now on an upward trajectory.
ニューヨーク市場では株価が上昇気流に乗っている。

As a result, the yen has stopped climbing against the dollar, and the currency market has regained stability.
　その結果、円高ドル安の流れが止まり、為替相場が安定した。

Stock prices in Tokyo have bounced back to life as investors around the world have started returning to the stock market in droves.
世界的な株式市場の再評価の動きのなかで、東京市場も株価が息を吹き返した。

Immediately after the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered a global financial crisis in autumn 2008, Japanese companies were stupefied as their global business strategies based on traditional dependence on Western markets had suddenly become obsolete.
　２００８年秋のリーマン・ショックの直後、日本企業はそれまでの欧米先進国依存を前提にした世界戦略が崩壊して茫然（ぼうぜん）自失の体だった。

From 2009 through 2010, Japanese companies focused on pulling themselves together for the development of new broad-based strategies for the entire world, including emerging economies, and redistribution of management resources.
一昨年から昨年にかけては、新興国を含めた全世界に視野を広げた新しい戦略作りと、経営資源の再配分に向けた立て直しの時期だったといえるだろう。

This year, they are regaining self-confidence and making bold strategic moves to expand globally with renewed determination.
そして今年は、日本企業が腹をくくって全世界に打って出る。そんな自信回復と行動の年になりつつある。

The trend has been epitomized by a flurry of major strategic alliances, including an agreement between Nippon Steel Corp. and Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. to enter merger talks and NEC Corp's decision to set up a joint personal computer venture with China's Lenovo Group Ltd.
　新日鉄と住友金属工業との合併交渉入り、ＮＥＣによる中国レノボとのパソコン事業合弁など、大がかりな再編の動きがその象徴だ。

Japanese firms are also stepping up their efforts to globalize their management, as evidenced by Olympus Corp.'s decision to promote a British executive to the post of president.
オリンパスが社長に英国人を登用するなど、経営のグローバル化も本格化している。

A growing number of Japanese companies will start making such aggressive moves to expand their global presence in the coming months.
攻めの動きはさらに広がるだろう。

But there are still many causes for worry both at home and abroad.
　とはいえ、内外の不安材料は尽きない。

Excess liquidity sloshing around the world is driving up the prices of food and raw materials, raising concerns about inflation, especially in emerging countries.
世界にだぶつくマネーが食料や資源の相場を押し上げ、新興国を中心にインフレ懸念が募る。

In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis keeps shaking confidence in the euro.
欧州では財政危機がユーロを揺さぶり続けている。

Heightened jitters about the world economy could trigger a new round of the yen's appreciation.
世界経済に緊張感が高まれば、円高がさらに進む恐れもある。

At home, political momentum for fiscal rehabilitation remains alarmingly weak despite the recent downgrade of Japan's sovereign debt by a major credit rating agency.
　国内をみれば、国債格下げという世界市場からの「警告」とは裏腹に、財政再建に向けた政治の動きがおぼつかない。

In addition to the murky outlook of the budget for the new fiscal year, a Diet preoccupied with partisan bickering is arousing anxiety among the public.
新年度予算の行方だけでなく、政争本位の国会自体が国民の間に不安をかきたてている。

There is, fortunately, a positive mood in Japan's business community.
　日本の経済界の空気は前向きだ。

Signs of forward-looking politics would do a lot to help accelerate the expansionary trend among Japanese businesses.
攻めの動きを加速させるには、政治にも前向きな機運が生まれることが何よりだ。

Political leaders should at least make sensible efforts to avoid becoming a drag on the private sector.
民間の足を引っ張らないという見識と努力を示してほしい。

It has also been confirmed that China's GDP surpassed Japan's last year. The news should be taken by Japan as a signal to finally forget its past success and move ahead.
　昨年のＧＤＰで中国が日本を抜いたことも確認された。これも日本が過去にとらわれず、前に進むべきだという警鐘として受け止めたい。