ＧＤＰマイナス 足踏みからの着実な回復図れ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Feb. 16, 2011)
Aim for steady economic recovery
ＧＤＰマイナス　足踏みからの着実な回復図れ（2月15日付・読売社説）

Although the margin of Japan's negative economic growth in the fourth quarter last year was smaller than anticipated, we remain concerned about this nation's economic prospects.
　予想よりマイナス成長の幅は小さかったとはいえ、景気の先行きに対する不安はぬぐえない。

In a preliminary report released Monday by the Cabinet Office, the nation's gross domestic product for the October-December period in real terms fell by a seasonally adjusted, annualized 1.1 percent from the previous quarter. This figure backed up previous observations that the economic recovery paused in the second half of last year.
　昨年１０～１２月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）が発表され、前期比年率で１・１％減となった。昨年後半に景気回復が足踏みしたことを、数字が裏付けた。

On a more positive note, consumer spending and production appear to have gradually improved since the beginning of this year. Many private research institutes have projected a moderate recovery for the January-March quarter.
　今年に入って、消費や生産は持ち直しつつあるようだ。このため、民間調査機関の多くは、１～３月期は緩やかなプラス成長を回復すると見ている。

However, there are still many reasons to feel uneasy. To put the economy firmly on the recovery track, it will be vital for the government and the Bank of Japan to continue implementing policies that prioritize economic growth, such as maintaining an easy-money policy.
　だが、懸念材料は少なくない。政府・日銀は、金融緩和を維持するなど成長優先の政策運営を続け、景気をしっかりと回復軌道に乗せることが肝要だ。

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A mix of good and bad

In the fourth quarter last year, domestic demand shrank for the first time in five quarters due to a temporary lull in consumer spending resulting partly from a fall in vehicle sales after the government subsidy program for eco-friendly car purchases ended in September.
　１０～１２月期は、内需が５四半期ぶりにマイナスを記録した。エコカー補助金の打ち切りで自動車販売が急減するなど、消費が一時的に落ち込んだためだ。

A consumer buying spree for flat-screen TVs and other home electronic appliances before the government's eco-point program for energy-efficient appliances was scaled back in December helped make up for the sluggish car sales.
　ただ、１２月の家電エコポイントの縮小を前に、薄型テレビなどに対する駆け込み需要が起き、自動車販売の不振を補った。

Although overseas demand declined due to the prolonged rise in the yen's value and the global economic slowdown, Japan's exports to other Asian nations and the United States remained steady.
　外需も、円高や海外経済の減速でマイナスになったが、米国やアジア向けの輸出は底堅かった。

Consequently, Japan's GDP recorded a yearly increase for the first time in three years, in both real and nominal terms.
　この結果、２０１０年の１年間のＧＤＰは、実質、名目ともに３年ぶりにプラスに転じた。

The data in the report reconfirmed that Japan's economy has finally managed to emerge from the serious recession that started after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in autumn 2008.
　２００８年秋のリーマン・ショック以降の深刻な不況からの脱出が改めて確認された形である。

That being said, there is still little room for optimism on the country's economic prospects. Sharp rises in global prices of natural resources and grains, such as oil and wheat, are pushing up prices of raw materials, which is beginning to bite into corporate profits. Japan's employment situation remains severe; the unemployment rate has stayed stubbornly high.
　今後の景気動向については、予断を許さない。原油や小麦など、世界的な資源や穀物の高騰で、原材料の価格は上昇を続け、企業の収益を圧迫し始めている。失業率も高止まりしたままで、雇用は依然として厳しい。

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Overtaken by China

Despite these worrying circumstances, Diet deliberations on the fiscal 2011 budget and related bills--which are essential to support and boost the economy--have made little progress. The government must make more efforts to pass these bills through the Diet as soon as possible by reviewing the controversial child-rearing allowance program and other wasteful hand-out policies.
　こうした情勢の中、景気下支えに必要な２０１１年度予算案と関連法案は、国会審議が難航している。子ども手当などのバラマキ政策を見直したうえで、早期成立を図るべきだ。

The Cabinet Office also confirmed that China's GDP surpassed that of Japan in nominal terms on a U.S. dollar basis in 2010.
　今回の発表で、１０年の名目ＧＤＰは、中国が日本を追い抜いたことが確定した。

Japan was crowned the world's second-largest economy, behind the United States, when it eclipsed West Germany in 1968. After 42 years, Japan has relinquished this position to China.
　日本は１９６８年に、当時の西ドイツを抜いて米国に次ぐ経済大国となった。その地位を４２年間守り続けたが、ついに世界２位の座を明け渡した。

China's rapid economic growth has created a massive market that should provide plenty of lucrative opportunities for the Japanese economy.
　中国経済の急成長は、巨大な市場が生まれることを意味し、日本経済にとってもプラス材料だ。

Unfortunately, the scale of Japan's economy remains at about the same level as it was two decades ago. Although the government should not blindly aim to expand the scale of Japan's economy, it needs to steadily promote strategies that ensure society maintains a certain level of wealth.
　それにしても、日本の経済規模が約２０年前と同水準というのは情けない。やみくもに規模拡大を目指す必要はないが、一定の豊かさを維持するため、成長戦略を着実に進める必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 15, 2011)
（2011年2月15日00時04分 読売新聞）