米韓軍事演習 中国も「北」抑止の責任がある

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 28, 2010)
N. Korea a ticking bomb China must help defuse
米韓軍事演習　中国も「北」抑止の責任がある（11月27日付・読売社説）

South Korea and the United States plan to hold joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea, west of the Korean Peninsula, for four days beginning Sunday. The USS George Washington, a Japan-based nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of the U.S. Navy, also will take part in the exercises.
　韓国と米国が、朝鮮半島の西の黄海で、２８日から４日間、合同軍事演習を実施する。米海軍原子力空母「ジョージ・ワシントン」も参加する。

The recent artillery shelling by North Korea of Yeonpyeong Island, South Korea, killed four people and damaged military facilities and private homes. North Korea does not appear hesitant to launch a second or third round of attacks.
　北朝鮮が、民間人の住む韓国・延坪(ヨンピョン)島(ド)を砲撃した事件では、４人が死亡し、軍施設や民間の住宅などに少なからぬ被害が出た。北朝鮮は、第２、第３の攻撃も辞さない構えを見せている。

The planned joint military exercises by U.S. and South Korean forces under such circumstances are said to be aimed at deterring further military provocation by North Korea.
　その中で行われる米韓軍事演習は、北朝鮮のさらなる武力挑発を抑止するのが狙いとされる。

However, the target of these efforts is a nation whose actions are hard to predict by the standards of common sense. The military exercises will be effective to some extent, but nations concerned must not lower their guard. In fact, North Korea shelled the island as if to ridicule the joint U.S.-South Korean drills conducted twice after the sinking by North Korea of a South Korean patrol ship.
　何しろ相手は常識では計れない国だ。演習も一定の効果はあろうが、油断は禁物だ。事実、北朝鮮は、米韓が韓国哨戒艦の撃沈事件後、２度実施した合同軍事演習をあざ笑うように、砲撃した。

Japan must closely watch, with a strong sense of caution, how North Korea will act, a factor that will determine the degree to which tensions grow on the Korean Peninsula. It is a matter of course that Prime Minister Naoto Kan ordered Cabinet members to stay in Tokyo during the joint military exercises so they could quickly respond in the event of a contingency.
　日本も、朝鮮半島の緊張を高める北朝鮮の今後の出方を、強い警戒心を持って注視すべきだ。菅首相が閣僚に対し、米韓演習中、不測の事態に対応できるよう禁足令を出したのは当然である。

Succession-linked aggression

North Korea is undergoing a time of instability as its leader Kim Jong Il is transferring his power to his young son, Kim Jong Un. With the naming of the heir apparent to the key post of vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, there had been concerns that Pyongyang would rush to reckless adventurism in an attempt to show off the son's credentials.
　北朝鮮は、金正日総書記から年若い息子へと権力を移行する不安定な過程にある。後継者の正恩氏が党中央軍事委員会副委員長という要職に就き、実績誇示のため無謀な冒険主義に走るのでは、という懸念が強まっていた。

Such anxiety became reality as North Korea launched its first attack on South Korean soil since the armistice of the Korean War.
　今回、朝鮮戦争の休戦以降で初の陸地砲撃を強行したことで、その不安は現実のものとなった。

The international community must not allow North Korea to engage in any further reckless behavior.
　国際社会は、北朝鮮にこれ以上の暴走を許してはならない。

Japan, the United States and South Korea need to further strengthen trilateral cooperation to head off North Korea's threatened mass production and proliferation of nuclear weapons.
　日米韓は、連携をさらに強化して、核兵器量産や核拡散の脅しをはねのける必要がある。

China, which has close relations with North Korea, expressed strong opposition to the participation of the U.S aircraft carrier in joint military exercises that South Korea and the United States had conducted earlier. Beijing thus signaled it does not intend to allow U.S. forces to act freely in waters in its vicinity.
　北朝鮮と関係が深い中国は、先に米韓が黄海で合同軍事演習をした際には、米空母の参加に「断固反対」を表明した。眼前の海域では、米軍に自由な行動は取らせない、という意思表示だった。

On Friday night, a deputy director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Information Department issued a statement that China "opposes any party taking any military acts in its exclusive economic zone without permission."
　今回も２６日夜、外務省副報道局長が「中国の排他的経済水域（ＥＥＺ）では、どの国であれ、許可なく軍事行動をとることに反対する」と、反発した。

Beijing's unhelpful stance

China is not in step with Japan, the United States and South Korea, which are pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear aspirations, but rather sides with Pyongyang by backing its hereditary regime, now heading for its third generation, through increased economic assistance. China likely calculates that the collapse of the current regime in the neighboring nation would seriously affect its own stability.
　中国は、圧力をかけて北朝鮮に核廃棄を迫ろうとする日米韓には同調せず、むしろ経済支援の強化によって３代世襲体制を支える立場だ。隣国の北朝鮮で体制が崩壊すれば、中国の安定も損なわれるという計算があるのだろう。

But it is North Korea that is threatening the peace and stability of the region. In our view, China's indulgence of North Korea has emboldened Pyongyang to the extent seen in recent developments.
　だが、地域の平和と安定を脅かしているのは、北朝鮮である。甘やかしてきたことが、ここまで増長させたのではないか。

If China tacitly approves North Korea's status quo, the degree of instability in the region will only grow. China must be well aware of the reality that a time bomb is ticking.
　北朝鮮の現状を黙認するなら、地域情勢は不安定さを増すばかりだ。時限爆弾を抱える現実を、中国は認識しなければならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 27, 2010)
（2010年11月27日01時40分 読売新聞）