ＧＤＰ減速 経済成長の持続力を高めたい

The Yomiuri Shimbun November 16, 2013
Bolster self-sustaining growth despite decelerated GDP pickup
ＧＤＰ減速　経済成長の持続力を高めたい（11月15日付・読売社説）

Although the pace of the nation’s economic growth since the beginning of the year has slowed, economic expansion remains in positive territory.
　年初から続いていた高成長にブレーキがかかったが、プラス成長は維持している。

The government, together with the Bank of Japan, should steadily push ahead with the Abenomics economic policy of the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to accelerate fresh economic growth.
　政府と日銀は、安倍政権の経済政策「アベノミクス」を着実に前進させ、成長の再加速を図ってもらいたい。

The nation’s preliminary real gross domestic product for the July-September period, announced by the Cabinet Office on Thursday, showed a 0.5 percent rise from the previous quarter, the fourth straight quarter of improvement.
　内閣府が発表した今年７～９月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は、前期比０・５％増と、４四半期連続でプラスになった。

On an annualized basis, however, the growth figure is 1.9 percent, half the previous quarter’s 3.8 percent.
だが、年率換算の成長率は１・９％で、前期の３・８％から半減した。

A major factor behind the decrease is the sluggish pace of personal spending, which has served as the engine for economic growth.
　成長を牽引(けんいん)してきた個人消費が低迷したことが響いた。

Exports, which were expected to increase on the strength of the weakening yen, turned to negative growth in the July-September period on declining demand from emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere.
円安の追い風が期待された輸出も、アジアなど新興国の景気減速を受けて、マイナスに転じた。

What shored up the growth despite weak domestic and external demand in such major categories was expenditures on public works projects, which increased through a set of emergency economic stimulus measures.
　内外需の柱が不振に陥る中で、成長を支えたのは、緊急経済対策で上積みした公共投資だった。

Commenting on the latest GDP figure, Akira Amari, state minister for economic and fiscal policy, expressed a bullish point of view, saying the government believes “domestic demand has remained firm, indicating the economy will continue picking up.” However, this is no time for the government to let its guard down.
　甘利経済財政相は「内需は底堅く、景気が引き続き上向いていると考える」と、強気の見方を示したが、油断は禁物だろう。

Higher growth achieved through public spending cannot last for long.
　財政出動による成長の押し上げは、持続力に限りがある。

Price markups looming

Any uptrend will level off sooner or later if public spending-led growth is not replaced with self-sustaining growth through increases in private demand such as consumer spending and capital investment.
消費や設備投資など民間需要が主導する自律的な成長に移行しないと、いずれ息切れは避けられまい。

What should be of particular concern is rising prices of imported goods such as food and fuel, in addition to increased electricity charges due to idle nuclear power stations.
　懸念されるのは、食品や燃料など輸入品の価格が上昇し、原子力発電所の停止で電力料金も値上がりしていることだ。

According to a survey by the Cabinet Office, 90 percent of households believe prices will be “higher than they are now” in the coming year. There are fears that consumer sentiment will ebb due to anxieties over increased prices.
　内閣府の調査で、９割の世帯が１年後の物価は「上がる」と答えた。物価高を警戒して、消費者の心理が冷え込みかねない。

Although consumption will likely become firmer from around the end of the year until the early months of next year due to a last-minute surge in demand ahead of a consumption tax increase on April 1, reactionary drops after the tax hike could be highly problematic.
　来年４月の消費税率引き上げをにらんだ「駆け込み需要」で、消費は年末から来年にかけて堅調さを取り戻すにしても、問題なのは増税後の反動減だ。

Should consumer spending run out of steam, the economic recovery could plunge into an alarming state, falling into a serious “consumption slump,” just before realizing the “virtuous economic cycle” the Abe administration has been seeking.
　消費が失速すれば、日本経済再生に黄信号がともる。安倍政権の目指す「経済の好循環」を実現するどころか、深刻な「消費不況」に沈む恐れがある。

The first-half aggregate profits of listed companies through September are likely to be double those of a year earlier. It is strongly hoped that firms enjoying good business performance will take the bold step of raising wages to help boost household purchasing power.
　上場企業の今年９月中間決算は、利益総額が前年の２倍に増える勢いだ。好業績の企業が賃上げに踏み切り、家計の購買力を底上げすることが望まれる。

Boosting income for both regular and nonregular employees of not only large companies, but also second-tier, medium- and small-sized businesses is certain to become a key task.
　大企業だけでなく、中堅・中小企業の従業員や非正規労働者を含めた、所得全体の向上も大きな課題となろう。

The current slow pace of capital investment by private businesses is also a matter of concern.
　民間企業の設備投資の回復が鈍いのも気がかりである。

Private-sector companies of course play a predominant role in realizing economic growth. All companies are urged to find a way out of being on the defensive, relying solely on cost curtailment, and instead draw up forward-looking business strategies.
　経済成長の主役は民間企業である。各社が前向きの経営戦略を描き、合理化頼みの「守りの経営」から脱することが求められる。

The government, for its part, must redouble efforts to support corporate strategies through such measures as bold deregulation and cuts in effective corporate tax rates, which are significantly higher than those in other advanced economies.
　政府は、大胆な規制改革や主要国より高い法人税実効税率の引き下げなど、企業戦略を後押しする施策を加速させるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 15, 2013)
（2013年11月15日01時36分  読売新聞）