量的緩和終了 米国の景気減速に警戒解けぬ

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The Yomiuri Shimbun(Jun. 25, 2011)
U.S. economy still ailing as QE2 nears its end
量的緩和終了　米国の景気減速に警戒解けぬ（6月24日付・読売社説）

The U.S. economy is limping along and its future looks uncertain.
　米国の景気がもたつき先行きは不透明だ。

The steering of financial policy is becoming increasingly difficult.
金融政策の舵(かじ)取りは、一段と難しくなっている。

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board decided to end, as scheduled at the end of June, the second round of its quantitative easing policy, known as QE2, which has been implemented on an unprecedented scale since November.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）は、昨年１１月から異例の規模で実施した量的な金融緩和策第２弾（ＱＥ２）を６月末で終了することを決めた。

The Fed's program has purchased 600 billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds and increased the supply of funds to the financial market.
　ＦＲＢは６０００億ドル（約４８兆円）もの米国債を買い入れ、市場への資金供給を増やした。

It was a last-ditch measure aimed at shoring up the economy and containing deflationary concerns at the same time.
景気下支えを狙うとともに、デフレ懸念を封じ込める苦肉の策だった。

As a result, long-term interest rates have gone down, encouraging companies to increase capital investment.
　その結果、長期金利が低下して、企業の設備投資の呼び水になった。

As U.S. stock market prices have gone up, personal spending has increased.
米株式相場の上昇に伴い、個人消費も持ち直してきた。

Deflationary concerns are subsiding.
デフレ懸念も後退している。

However, the negative side effects were significant.
　一方で、副作用も大きかった。

A huge amount of money from the United States filled markets around the world, raising crude oil and crop prices.
米国発の巨額マネーが市場にあふれ、原油や穀物などの価格を押し上げた。

Inflation has become conspicuous, especially in emerging countries.
新興国などのインフレも目立つ。

We agree with the Fed's judgment that the quantitative easing policy has fulfilled its role for the time being.
　ＦＲＢが、ひとまず、量的緩和策の役割は終わったと判断したのは妥当だろう。

===

Fed keeps zero-interest policy

The Fed has indicated its resolve to maintain a policy of virtually zero percent interest rates and to keep the federal funds rate, which is a target for short-term interest rates, at its current level.
　今回、ＦＲＢは、短期金利の誘導目標であるフェデラル・ファンド（ＦＦ）金利については、事実上のゼロ金利政策を据え置き、当面維持する方針を示した。

If the Fed hurriedly adopts an "exit policy" such as a measure to return interest rates to their levels before the global financial crisis, it will cool the business climate and harm the global economy.
　金利水準を金融危機前に戻すような「出口戦略」を急げば、景気を冷え込ませ、世界経済に悪影響を及ぼす。

The Fed should be very careful in deciding the timing of a transition to a tighter monetary policy.
金融引き締めのタイミングは慎重に見極めるべきだ。

However, one problem is that the momentum of the economic recovery is still weak.
　問題は、景気回復の勢いが弱いことである。

The U.S. real economic growth rate in the January-March quarter dropped to 1.8 percent on an annually adjusted basis from the previous quarter.
　米国の今年１～３月期の実質経済成長率は、前期比年率で１・８％に低下した。

U.S. manufacturers were forced to reduce production because the supply of parts from Japan became bogged down as a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
　東日本大震災の影響で、日本からの部品供給が滞り、米製造業は減産に追い込まれた。

Economic stagnation has continued in the April-June quarter.
４～６月期も景気低迷が続く。

Unemployment remains high at the 9 percent level.
失業率は９％台に高止まりしている。

If the economy slows down further, can the Fed take any additional effective measures?
　景気が一段と減速した場合、ＦＲＢが有効な追加策を打ち出せるかどうか。

Interest rates in the United States are certain to remain extremely low for a long time.
米国の超低金利の長期化は必至だろう。

===

Stop overly strong yen

However, Japan must be cautious about the fact that the yen has been growing stronger against the dollar in connection with the low U.S. interest rates.
　だが、これに関連して、円高・ドル安が進んでいることに日本は警戒しなければならない。

U.S. authorities apparently have approved the weakening of the dollar, which is an advantage in exporting U.S. products abroad.
米当局も輸出に有利なドル安を容認しているようだ。

Stricken by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the Japanese economy has fallen into negative growth.
　大震災に直撃された日本経済はマイナス成長に陥っている。

The earnings of Japanese automobile and other export-oriented companies will decrease if dollar-selling based on the U.S. situation leads to excessive appreciation of the yen.
米側の事情によるドル売りで、過度に円高が進めば、自動車などの輸出企業の収益が落ち込む。

It will eventually lead to serious circumstances in which efforts to repair damage from the disaster will be hindered.
震災からの復興に冷や水を浴びせる深刻な事態となろう。

When the yen's appreciation skyrocketed in mid-March, Japan, the United States and some European countries undertook a coordinated intervention and succeeded in putting a brake on the soaring yen.
　３月中旬に円が急騰した際、日米欧の協調介入で円高に歯止めをかけた。

Likewise, the government and the Bank of Japan should take decisive action to hold the market in check and prevent the yen's excessive appreciation.
政府・日銀は、市場をけん制し、円高阻止に断固とした姿勢で臨むべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 24, 2011)
（2011年6月24日01時22分 読売新聞）