木語：原発事故政局を疑う＝金子秀敏

最近、毎日新聞がおもしろい。
火論、水説、木語と毎日を連続で掲載。
結構、面白い。良く書けていると思う。
読売や朝日も大切な情報源なので毎日かかさず読んでいる。
つまるところ、新聞記事というのは、いわば記者の魂。
読売や朝日の記事は、一人の記者ではなくて、社説グループで書いているのではないのか。
だから、あんまり面白くない。
それでも、各新聞社には感謝している。
大切な情報源なのだから。
（スラチャイ）

(Mainichi Japan) June 16, 2011
Game of chicken over Kan resignation threatens chaos during Japan's time of crisis
木語：原発事故政局を疑う＝金子秀敏
　＜ｍｏｋｕ－ｇｏ＞

The push to oust Prime Minister Naoto Kan has made me distinctly uncomfortable lately.
　昨今の菅降ろしが、どうも腑（ふ）に落ちない。

The opposition parties have been calling on Kan to step down -- and soon -- for his failure to handle the Fukushima nuclear crisis.
　菅直人首相では原発事故の処理ができないと野党が退陣を要求している。

Top figures in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) such as Secretary-General Katsuya Okada and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano have also spoken openly of Kan stepping down.
政権与党の岡田克也幹事長や枝野幸男官房長官まで任命権者である党代表・首相の退陣を口にする。

DPJ Acting President Yoshito Sengoku has even said Kan would be gone within the month while he was reportedly sharing his personal opinions with opposition party executives over who could be the next prime minister.
　仙谷由人官房副長官などは「月内退陣」を公言し、野党幹部と次の首相を私議したという。まさに乱世だ。

These are indeed troubled times -- but not just troubled.

Something about this whole situation is strange.
　だが変だ。

I have to ask: When and how did Naoto Kan fail to deal with the nuclear disaster?
菅首相はいつ、どのように事故処理に失敗したのか。

What measures could any other prime minister have implemented?
だれが首相なら、どのような対策ができるか。

No-one has yet to say anything on these questions.
だれも言わない。

For a short while, critics fixed on the alleged prime ministerial order to halt cooling operations at the crippled Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant in the turbulent hours after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.
一時、海水注入を中断させたと騒がれたが、

It turned out that there was never such an order.
事実ではなかった。

The only thing both the opposition and ruling parties are talking about is when: when Kan will vacate the prime minister's residence.
　与野党が論じているのはもっぱら退陣の時期である。

Even Kan himself, trying to fend off calls for an early exit, has sought to muddy the timetable for his exit by saying he would stay on "until a certain point in resolving the crisis has been reached."
菅首相も、事故処理に「一定のめどがつくまで」と、退陣時期をぼかして防戦している。

Perhaps the real reason for the attempts to oust Kan has nothing to do with how he dealt with the nuclear crisis. 　菅降ろしの理由は、ほんとうは原発事故対応の失敗ではないのではないか。

Let's have a look back to before the disaster, at the March 4 House of Councillors Budget Committee meeting, and the March 11 accounting committee meeting of the same chamber.
３月１１日の東日本大震災の前に戻ってみる。

At the March 4 committee, then Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, and Government Revitalization Minister Renho were assailed by members of the largest opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over alleged donations from a suspect in a tax evasion case.
３月４日の参院予算委、１１日の参院決算委員会だ。
　予算委では自民党議員が、前原誠司外相、野田佳彦財務相、蓮舫行政刷新担当相を脱税事件の容疑者から献金を受けたとして攻めた。

Maehara was also attacked for taking a donation from a foreign resident, and resigned from his portfolio two days later.
前原氏は在日外国人からの献金も突かれ、２日後に外相を辞任した。

At the March 11 accounting meeting, before the shaking of the Great East Japan Earthquake started, suspicion was also cast on Kan for taking donations from a foreign national -- forbidden under Japan's political funding laws.
　決算委では菅首相が外国人献金疑惑を追及された。

Kan opponents were beginning to craft a knock-out punch in the upper house that week, with dodgy political donations as its driving force.
参院で菅政権打倒の「献金政局」が始まった－－

And then the earthquake came, freezing speculation and suspicion in its tracks.
そのとたん大震災で疑惑追及は止まった。

During the June 3 upper house budget committee meeting, however, the LDP revived accusations of illicit donations to the prime minister, finance minister and revitalization minister.
　６月３日、自民党は参院予算委で首相、財務相、行政刷新相の献金追及を再開した。

The opposition apparently intends to pry deeper before the end of the session on June 22, including calling on witnesses to testify in the chamber.
２２日の会期末まで、参考人招致などで菅首相らを追及するらしい。

So, perhaps it is all this that really crippled the Kan Cabinet, not the nuclear crisis.
とすれば菅政権が追いつめられているのはこの問題ではないか。

If the LDP can confirm the illicit donations to the ministers, then a number of bills including a vital special law on public debt will not pass the upper house.
　自民党は、献金を認めなければ公債特例法案などを参院で通さない。

If the upper house votes to censure the ministers, then parliamentary business will grind to a halt.
問責決議なら国会は止まる。

Furthermore, if the prime minister admits to taking donations from a foreigner, he will be pushed to resign from the Diet entirely.
首相が献金を認めれば議員辞職を迫る。

Years ago, when a postal reform bill was rejected by the upper house while Junichiro Koizumi was prime minister, Koizumi dissolved the House of Representatives and held an election.
　かつて小泉純一郎首相は参院で郵政改革法案を否決されて衆院を解散した。

Dissolution of the Diet was his trump card, but one that's impossible to play now.
解散は切り札だ。

Northeast Japan remains a disaster zone and is incapable of carrying out an election.
だがいまは東北地方で選挙ができない。

If the Diet was dissolved today, Japan would descend into chaos.
解散したら日本は大混乱だ。

However, even with such terrible repercussions possible, if Kan and the LDP continue their game of chicken, dissolution is possible.
　しかし、そんなことはかまわずに自民党と菅首相がチキンゲームを続けるなら解散の可能性はある。

Both ruling and opposition party members of the lower house find the idea frightening.
衆院議員は与野党とも解散が怖い。

If the donations issue came to dominate the political situation, then Kan would have nowhere to run.
献金政局を表に出すと首相は逃げ場を失うので、

So, perhaps to avoid the dangers of Diet dissolution, the nuclear crisis is being used to give Kan the chance of an "honorable resignation."
原発処理を口実に辞任する「名誉ある撤退」でおさめようとしているのではないか。

However, Kan refuses to give up the game of chicken.
　ところが首相はチキンゲームをやめない。

Containing the leak of radioactive material from the Fukushima plant is priority No. 1, and no-one in Japan is applauding the LDP's muckraking over alleged illicit political donations in this time of national crisis.
原発から漏れる放射能を封じ込めるのが最優先の、こんな非常時に献金疑惑の追及をする自民党に国民は拍手しない。

Maybe that's what Kan is thinking as well as he clings to his post.
そう首相は考えているのかもしれない。

If this were indeed the case, I would feel more at ease.
　こう読めば腑に落ちる。

(By Hidetoshi Kaneko, Expert Senior Writer)
（専門編集委員）

毎日新聞　2011年6月16日　東京朝刊