高速鉄道戦略 中国との受注競争に備えよ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Japan must prepare strategically to beat China for overseas orders
高速鉄道戦略　中国との受注競争に備えよ

Japan must strategically prepare to compete for overseas orders with China, a country that mounts an export offensive even by offering virtually bargain prices.
　投げ売りに近い輸出攻勢をかける中国との受注競争に、日本は戦略的に備えねばならない。

In a fiercely contested race between Japan and China to build a high-speed railway in Indonesia, Japan lost. The project in question is to build a railway system connecting Jakarta and Bandung, a distance of 140 kilometers, with trains running at speeds over 300 kph.
　日中が争ってきたインドネシアの高速鉄道計画で、日本が敗れた。首都ジャカルタ―バンドン間の１４０キロを時速３００キロ以上で結ぶ構想だ。

The project proposed by Japan would have financed most of the estimated total project cost of about ¥540 billion with the use of yen loans, requiring a loan guarantee from the Indonesian government.
　日本案は総事業費約５４００億円の大半を円借款で賄うもので、インドネシアの政府保証が必要だった。

Japan had initially led China in bidding for the project by, for instance, conducting a feasibility study starting as early as around 2008.
日本は、２００８年頃から事業性を確認する調査を行うなど、中国よりも先行していた。

The actions taken by the Indonesian government were problematic. In early September, Jakarta announced it would review its railway project, and would not adopt either the Japanese or Chinese proposals.
　問題なのは、インドネシア政府の対応だ。９月初め、日中両案を採用せず、計画を見直すと公表した。

Yet, less than a month later, the government reversed its policy and adopted the Chinese proposal.
だが、１か月足らずで、その方針を覆し、中国案に決めた。

The Indonesian government chose the Chinese proposal as Beijing accepted Jakarta’s conditions that the government be free from any fiscal spending or loan guarantee for the project.
　政府支出も債務保証もしないというインドネシアの条件を、中国が受け入れたことが理由だ。

It was understandable for Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga to strongly express the Japanese government’s dissatisfaction, saying, “It’s important for a large-scale infrastructure project to be implemented in a transparent and fair manner.” It is vital to examine the decision-making process taken by the Indonesian government.
　菅官房長官が「大型インフラ計画は透明かつ公正に実施されることが重要だ」と強い不満を表明したのは、もっともである。決定プロセスの検証が欠かせない。

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson engaged in self-praise by saying China enjoys great superiority over Japan in regard to loan conditions and work periods.
　中国外務省は「中国には、融資条件や工期などの面で比較的大きな優位性がある」と自賛した。

China may have hinted at extending financial assistance to the project through the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund, a state-owned investment fund of the Chinese government.
中国主導のアジアインフラ投資銀行（ＡＩＩＢ）や自前の「シルクロード基金」を通じた資金援助をちらつかせたのではないか。

Fierce export drive

Many people are skeptical about the feasibility of the Chinese proposal, which promises to complete the construction of the railway system in three years. It is a matter of concern that the Indonesian government’s lax judgment over its adoption of the Chinese proposal may come into question again.
　３年での完工などを約束した中国案には、実現性を危ぶむ見方も多い。インドネシア政府の判断の甘さが改めて問われることにならないか、懸念されよう。

Behind China’s fierce export drive is the excessive production capacity of its high-speed railway industry. The country has built a 16,000-kilometer high-speed railway network in a matter of 10 years, more than six times longer than Japan’s Shinkansen bullet train network. A surplus of rolling stock, railway facilities and workers is likely to continue for some time.
　中国の輸出攻勢の背景には、高速鉄道産業の生産能力のだぶつきがある。国内の高速鉄道網はわずか１０年ほどで１万６０００キロに拡大し、日本の新幹線網の６倍を超えた。車両や設備、労働者などの過剰は続くだろう。

Japan should keep an eye on China in the days ahead, as it is a country that has to enter overseas markets regardless of whether it profits or not.
　採算を度外視してでも、国外市場に打って出ざるを得ない中国を今後も日本は警戒すべきだ。

The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe considers the export of infrastructure development as one of the central pillars of its growth strategy and has focused on marketing such projects through cooperation between the public and private sector.
　安倍政権はインフラ輸出を成長戦略の柱と位置づけ、官民で連携して売り込みに注力してきた。

In particular, railway projects are considered promising in this respect, with demand expected to grow worldwide. Japan hopes to win orders from such countries as Malaysia and the United States in the days ahead. On the basis of its defeat in its bidding for the Indonesian project, Japan will need to rebuild its export strategy urgently.
　中でも鉄道事業は、世界的に需要増が見込まれる有望分野で、これからもマレーシアや米国などで受注を目指す考えだ。今回の敗北を踏まえ、輸出戦略の早急な立て直しが求められよう。

Japan has conventionally promoted the safety and the technological prowess of its high-speed railway system, Japan’s strongpoints in this sector. In addition, it will also become important for Japan to understand, more precisely than before, what its trading partner needs.
　日本は従来、強みである安全性や技術力をアピールしてきた。加えて、相手国のニーズをより的確に把握することも重要になる。

If Japan wants to win orders, it will be necessary to put more effort into presenting proposals as a package that includes traffic control systems and maintenance and checkups, rather than merely undertaking the design and construction of projects. Extending cooperation in the fostering of technical personnel will also prove effective.
　設計や建設工事を請け負うだけでなく、運行管理や保守・点検などを一括して受託する提案に力を入れる必要がある。技術者育成に協力することも有効だろう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 7, 2015)