露のシリア空爆 「イスラム国」掃討は名目か

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Are Russian airstrikes in Syria targeting ISIL in name only?
露のシリア空爆　「イスラム国」掃討は名目か

Russia’s full-scale use of military force in Syria has heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington, and the standoff is becoming increasingly entrenched.
　ロシアのシリアでの本格的な武力行使が、ロシアと米国の緊張を高め、固定化させつつある。

Russia has started expanding its military operations against armed antigovernment forces opposed to the administration of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Russian attacks were conducted based on a request from Assad’s government.
　ロシアが、シリアのアサド政権と敵対する反体制派武装勢力への軍事行動を拡大し始めた。攻撃はアサド政権の要請に基づくものだ。

Since the end of September, in addition to conducting airstrikes for more than one week, Moscow also has fired cruise missiles from vessels stationed about 1,500 kilometers away in the Caspian Sea.
　９月末以来、１週間以上の空爆に加え、約１５００キロ・メートル離れたカスピ海に展開する艦艇から巡航ミサイル攻撃も行った。

More than 90 percent of the Russian targets have reportedly been moderate, pro-U.S. and Europe rebel groups. These attacks have apparently killed and injured many civilians, including children.
　ロシアの標的の９割以上が、親米欧の穏健な反体制派だとされる。子供を含む民間人死傷者が多数出たという。

Russia has concentrated its airstrikes in western Syria near Tartus, home to Russia’s only naval port in the Middle East and a stronghold of the Assad government.
　アサド政権の地盤で、ロシアが中東唯一の軍港を持つタルトゥスに近い西部に空爆は集中する。

Russia claims the objective of its attacks is to wipe out the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant(ISIL) extremist group. However, it is obvious that this offensive aims to support the weakened Assad government and protect Russia’s own national interests. It is a self-serving action.
　ロシアは過激派組織「イスラム国」の掃討が目的だとしている。だが、弱体化したアサド政権を支え、自国の権益を守る狙いが明白で、利己的な行動と言えよう。

There have also been reports that Russia will send “volunteer soldiers” to Syria. Russia appears poised to fight against Syrian antigovernment forces by working closely with units from Iran — a sworn friend of Syria and Shiite groups from Iraq and other nations.
　ロシアが「義勇兵」を派遣するとの情報もある。シリアの盟友イランの部隊やイラクなどのシーア派勢力と連携し、シリア反体制派と戦う構想だろう。

This Shiite-oriented strategy will do nothing but whip up a backlash from Sunni groups and their backers, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and inflame the sectarian conflict. The risk that this civil war could develop into a proxy war between Russia and Syria’s neighboring nations cannot be overlooked.
　シーア派を偏重した作戦は、スンニ派勢力と、後ろ盾のサウジアラビアやトルコの反発を買い、宗派対立を煽あおるだけだ。内戦が、近隣国とロシアとの代理戦争に発展する危険も軽視できない。

Friction with U.S.

Russia’s predecessor, the Soviet Union, intervened in the nearby nation of Afghanistan. About nine years of fighting there battered Russia’s economy and was a factor in the Soviet Union’s collapse.
　ロシアの前身であるソ連は隣国のアフガニスタンに介入した。約９年の戦いで経済が疲弊し、体制崩壊の一因ともなった。

The United States and Europe have imposed sanctions on Russia in response to the problem concerning Ukraine, and Russia’s economy is on the decline. Russia’s strategy in the Middle East is certain to further sap its strength. We think this is a foolish move that disregards the lessons of its operations in Afghanistan.
　ウクライナ問題を巡りロシアは現在、米欧の制裁下にあり、経済は下降線をたどる。中東での作戦が、ロシアの体力を一層奪うのは確実だ。アフガンでの教訓を顧みない愚行ではないか。

U.S. President Barack Obama warned Russia that its offensive in Syria will suck Moscow into a “quagmire.”
　オバマ米大統領は、ロシアは「泥沼にはまる」と警告した。

The United States has stepped up its airstrikes against ISIL positions and is supplying weapons to moderate rebel forces as it seeks to retain leadership over the situation in Syria. However, the impact of these steps is unknown.
　米国は、シリア情勢での主導権を握るため、穏健反体制派への武器供与と「イスラム国」の拠点への空爆を強化するというが、効果は未知数だ。

The United States has been reluctant to get more involved in Syria and is flatly refusing to cooperate with Russia on this issue.
　シリアへの関与を逡巡しゅんじゅんしてきた米国は、ロシアとの協力を断固として拒否している。

Nevertheless, their interests coincide on the point of seeking to deplete the strength of ISIL. It would be significant if the United States and Russia could coordinate their strategies to prevent accidental clashes and narrow down the targets of their attacks.
　ただ、「イスラム国」の弱体化を目指す点では、利害は一致する。米露の偶発的衝突を避け、攻撃の標的を絞り込むためなら、作戦を調整する意義はあろう。

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stance of easily resorting to military means is becoming an element of instability in the international community.
　安易に軍事手段に訴えるプーチン大統領の姿勢は、国際社会の不安定要因になっている。

Hostility between Washington and Moscow is escalating and the world is sliding toward a situation that could be called a new kind of Cold War. This will unavoidably have implications for Japan’s diplomacy.
　米露の対立が深刻化し、世界は新型の「冷戦」とも呼ぶべき局面を迎えつつある。日本外交への影響も避けられまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 9, 2015)