Coping with China

2011/01/05
--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 4
EDITORIAL: Coping with China
中国と向き合う―異質論を超えて道を開け

The South Korean island of Daeyeonpyeongdo remained desolate on New Year's Day, with most islanders having relocated temporarily to the mainland city of Incheon and elsewhere following North Korea's artillery assault in November.
　北朝鮮による砲撃を受けた韓国の大延坪島（テヨンピョンド）。島民の多くが本土の仁川市などに一時転居して、火が消えたような正月になった。

That was the first time since the signing of the Korean War Armistice Agreement in 1953 that South Korean civilians were killed in a direct attack from North Korea.
　約６０年前に朝鮮戦争が休戦となった後、北朝鮮からの直接の軍事攻撃で韓国内の民間人が犠牲になったのは初めてだ。

Naturally, the shock and outrage of the islanders were immense, especially as their island had remained unscathed during the war.
戦争中もこの島では被害がなかったという。島民が受けた衝撃は計りしれないし、怒りは収まらない。

The people of South Korea are also deeply offended by China's stance of continuing to support aberrant North Korea.
　韓国では、常軌を逸した北朝鮮を支え続ける中国への不満も大きい。

Beijing did not condemn Pyongyang for the artillery assault, just as it hadn't over the sinking of a South Korean Navy ship last spring. Moreover, China effectively blocked the United Nations Security Council from issuing a declaration to condemn North Korea. The South Korean people's frustration with China is all too understandable.
　昨春の哨戒艦沈没事件と同様に、砲撃事件でも、中国政府は北朝鮮を批判しなかった。それどころか、中国が同意せず、国連安全保障理事会は北朝鮮への非難声明を出せなかった。韓国民の中国へのいらだちは当然だ。

On the other hand, South Korea's political community and mass media are now urging the public to get reacquainted with China.
　その一方で、「中国を本格的に学び直そう」という提言が、韓国のメディアや政界をにぎわす。

South Korea and China established diplomatic relations in 1992. At the time, China had yet to emerge completely from its isolation after being blasted by the international community over the Tiananmen Square crackdown of 1989.
　韓国が、中国と国交を結んだのは１９９２年。このころ、中国は８９年の天安門事件による国際的な孤立から完全には抜け出せていなかった。

Reacquainting with a neighbor
■隣国を改めて学ぶ

Today, nearly 60 percent of foreign students in South Korea are Chinese nationals, while one in three foreign students in China are South Korean. Bilateral exchanges have expanded faster than expected.
　今、韓国にいる留学生の６割近くが中国人で、中国で学ぶ外国人学生の３分の１が韓国人というように、交流は予想を超えて幅広くなった。

China has come a long way since 1992, having now become a major power and closing in on the United States. Its military capabilities have grown rapidly, especially at sea. China, in fact, is even transforming East Asia's security environment.
　中国も国交樹立時とは様変わりし、米国に迫る大国になった。軍事力は急速に強大になり、なかでも海軍力の増強が目覚ましい。中国は東アジアの安全保障環境さえ変えつつある。

China's relationship with the United States is becoming the most important bilateral relationship for the stability of the world. Yet, it is hard to read Chinese politics and diplomacy.
　そして、米中関係は世界の安定に最も重要な二国間関係になりつつある。それなのに、中国の政治や外交は読み切れない。

This is why South Korea feels it must "study" China closely while maintaining its alliance with the United States. The same applies to Japan, as well.
　米国との関係を基軸としつつ、中国を深く研究しなければならない理由である。それは日本も同じだ。

China being a communist state, the process of policy-making there reminds us of a black box. But we cannot simply dismiss China as "different" and keep our distance, especially in light of our turbulent relations.
　中国は共産党体制で、政策の決定過程はブラックボックスのようだ。しかし、「異質」と決めつけるだけで、手をこまねいているわけにはいかない。
　波乱続きの日中関係を振り返ると、なおさらそうだ。

It's a shame, really, because a good relationship between Japan and China should help stabilize China's relationship with the United States and contribute to peace in the Asia-Pacific region.
日中関係の発展は米中関係の安定や、アジア太平洋地域の平和に寄与できるだけに残念だった。

Deng Xiaoping, who led China's open-door reformist policy, once noted to the effect: "The more developed a country becomes, the more humble it must become and learn not to criticize others thoughtlessly. The country must not say or do anything which cannot be handled by its means."
　「発展すればするほど謙虚であるべきで、無思慮に他人を批判してはならない。分を越えたことは言わず、分を越えたことはしてはならない」
　中国を改革開放に導いたトウ（トウ＝登におおざと）小平氏の言葉だ。

China appears to have abandoned Deng's "taoguangyanghui" (hide one's talents and bide one's time) policy. But Deng also said, "China will never let anyone interfere in its domestic policy, and China will never compromise on that score."
才能を覆い隠し目立たせないというこの「韜光養晦（とうこうようかい）」路線は放棄したとしか見えぬ中国だが、トウ氏は次のようにも述べている。
　「内政にはいかなる者の干渉も決して許すことができないし、中国は一切譲歩できない」

One thing is clear: China has faithfully adhered to Deng's guiding principle that "the only truth is development," and it focused on economic development as the ultimate national interest.
　とはいえ、中国はこれまで「発展こそ確かな道理」といったトウ氏の教えに忠実に、経済発展に力を入れてきた。経済が最大の国益だったのだ。

Changes in national interest
■国益の変化に注目

A policy of putting priority on economic development above all seems to have restored China's self-confidence. And as nationalism grew along with the economy, issues of sovereignty and territory also became matters of vital national interest in Beijing's eyes. Unless Japan takes due note of this change, Japan could harm its own national interests.
　経済優先は、中国の自信をよみがえらせたようだ。発展とともに強まるナショナリズムを背景に、主権や領土も中国当局にとって、おろそかに出来ぬ国益となった。この変化を凝視しないと日本の国益を損ないかねない。

When Japan and China were at odds in September over the disputed Senkaku Islands, China and Russia held a summit and issued a joint statement to the effect that matters that pertain to their core interests, such as sovereignty, unification and territorial security, are the most important elements in their strategic partnership.
　日中が尖閣問題で対立していた昨年９月、中国とロシアの首脳会談が開かれ、次のような共同声明が出された。
　「主権や統一、領土保全などの核心利益にかかわる問題での互いの支持が戦略的協力の重要な中身だ」

The statement could be interpreted as a declaration by China and Russia that they were resolved to form a united front in their disputes with Japan over the Senkaku Islands and the Northern Territories held by Russia since the end of World War II.
　北方領土と尖閣諸島の問題での共闘宣言ともとれる。

Immediately after the joint declaration was issued, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a visit to one of the northern islands. China's foreign policy ought to be understood in a broader context.
この直後、メドベージェフ大統領が北方領土を訪れた。中国が繰り広げる外交を広い文脈から見なくてはならない。

Apparently, some members of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan believe it is impossible to establish personal ties with Beijing officials because China is a dictatorship. But these members are wrong. They need only to look at China's relations with the United States.
　独裁国の中国とは人脈など作れないと考える人が、民主党の一部にいるようだ。だが、それは考え違いである。米中関係を見ればわかる。

For a while, disputes over the renminbi and bilateral trade, as well as Washington's sale of weapons to Taiwan, kept China's relations with the United States stormier than those with Japan. But now, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is scheduled to visit Beijing shortly. Likewise, Chinese President Hu Jintao will visit Washington officially this month for the first time in five years.
　米国と中国は人民元や貿易、台湾への武器供与などで日中以上にぎくしゃくしてきたが、ゲーツ米国防長官が近く北京を訪れる。胡錦濤（フー・チンタオ）主席は今月、国賓として５年ぶりに訪米する。

These visits are part of superpower strategic diplomacy, but they are being made possible because the bilateral relationship also rests on extensive private-level exchanges.
　大国同士の戦略的外交の一環ではあるが、米中関係を支える下地としての幅広い民間交流があってのことだ。

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who unlocked the doors of China-U.S. relations, has visited China well over 100 times. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke has served for years as an adviser on business with China. The resilience of the China-U.S. relationship ultimately owes to personal relations.
　米中関係の扉を開いたキッシンジャー元国務長官の訪中は、１００回を大幅に上回る。ロック商務長官は長年、対中ビジネスのアドバイザーを務めていた。米中関係の復元力の強さの一因は、やはり人間関係なのだ。

The DPJ, whose contacts with China are notably scarcer than those established by the Liberal Democratic Party, needs to focus all its energy on building them up.
　自民党に比べて中国とのつながりが希薄な民主党は、中国とのパイプ構築に全力を注がなければならない。

Once that is done, the DPJ must make every use of intergovernmental and interparty channels of dialogue, as Washington and Beijing have done in advancing their strategic partnership and economic talks.
　そのうえで、政府間や政党間にある対話のチャンネルを、米中戦略・経済対話のように活性化させる。

Only then will our country be able to deal strategically with political, economic, security and environment issues.
そうやってこそ、政治や経済、安保、環境などの問題に、戦略的に取り組めるのだ。

Important role for netizens
■ネット世論を使う

To make the people of China understand who we really are, it is vital that we express ourselves to China's 400 million-plus Internet users, not only through government channels but also through private channels.
　中国側を理解、納得させ、行動に移させるために、その４億人を超すネチズン（ネット市民）に日本の考えを、政府だけでなく民間も発信していくことが重要だ。

According to Michael Anti, a prominent Chinese blogger and journalist, the established media are influenced by the government, but bloggers are free to express all sorts of opinions. In fact, Twitter, which Beijing is unable to monitor completely, has today become a forum that shapes public opinion in China.
　中国の有名なネット言論人の安替氏によれば、既成メディアは当局の考えに縛られるが、ネット上の議論は百花斉放である。中国政府の監視が及びにくいツイッターが今では世論を導く。

The U.S. Embassy in Beijing invites influential Chinese bloggers every month to exchange their opinions with the ambassador himself. This is said to be what President Barack Obama wants.
　北京の米国大使館はすでに毎月、影響のあるブロガーらを招き、大使との意見交換をしている。オバマ大統領の意向だという。

It would be good if Japan also were to explore this new path of diplomacy by which both the government and the private sector will reach out directly to the people of China.
　日本も官民で中国国民に直接働きかける外交を試みていきたい。