ＧＤＰ世界２位 「昇竜中国」にも課題は多い

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jan. 22, 2011)
Rising dragon, China faces many challenges
ＧＤＰ世界２位　「昇竜中国」にも課題は多い（1月21日付・読売社説）

It is now certain that China will overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy, as evidenced by China's gross domestic product in 2010.
　中国が２０１０年の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の規模で日本を抜き、世界２位の経済大国になることが確実になった。

China's economy grew 10.3 percent in real terms last year, with its GDP totaling 39.8 trillion yuan (about 5.88 trillion dollars) on a nominal basis, according to a preliminary report announced Thursday by the Chinese government.
　中国政府が２０日に発表した速報で、昨年の実質成長率が１０・３％を記録し、名目ＧＤＰが３９兆７９８３億元（約５兆８７９０億ドル）に達した。

Japan's nominal GDP in 2010 will be announced in February, but it is expected to total about 5.45 trillion dollars and is certain to fall below China's.
　日本の昨年の名目ＧＤＰは２月に公表されるが、５兆４５００億ドル程度にとどまる見通しで、中国を下回ることが確定的だ。

Japan has been the world's second-largest economy after the United States since 1968. As a result of the prolonged economic stagnation that followed the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, however, it will relinquish that status to China. This is indeed a historic switch in the two countries' rankings.
　日本は１９６８年以来、米国に次ぐ２位を４２年間守ってきた。しかし、バブル経済崩壊後の長期低迷が響き、ついにその座を明け渡すことになった。歴史的な日中逆転である。

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Significant income gaps

Despite its robust growth, however, China's economy faces a mountain of challenges. China's per capita GDP stands at about 4,000 dollars, or just one-tenth of Japan's, and there are large income gaps between people in urban and rural areas, and between people in coastal and inland areas.
　しかし、中国経済には問題が山積している。１人当たりＧＤＰは約４０００ドルと日本の１０分の１にとどまり、都市部と農村部、沿岸部と内陸部で所得格差も大きい。

The challenge lies in whether the country can rectify these disparities and achieve balanced growth.
格差を是正し、均衡ある発展を実現できるかどうかが課題だ。

The Chinese economy has grown fast, primarily because Beijing has used its ample supply of cheap labor to bring in foreign capital.
　中国経済が急成長した要因は、安価で豊富な労働力を武器に、外資を積極的に受け入れたことだろう。

With China seen as "the world's factory," meaning a leading manufacturer and exporter of consumer goods, foreign capital has flooded into the country, bringing about rapid economic growth driven by exports.
「世界の工場」として投資が急増し、輸出主導による経済成長に成功した。

Beijing quickly overcame the financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent global recession, thanks to its sizable economic stimulus measures. Events of great national significance, such as the Summer Olympics in Beijing in 2008 and the World Expo in Shanghai in 2010, appear to have provided a good tailwind for economic growth.
　０８年の金融危機とその後の世界不況も、大型の景気対策でいち早く克服した。北京五輪や上海万博などの国家的イベントも、経済成長の追い風になったようだ。

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Food, other prices climb

As a result of the overheated economy, the prices of food and other commodities have soared in recent years. The biggest cause of concern is the economic bubble that has developed in the real estate sector.
　ところが、最近では、景気の過熱に伴い、食料品などの物価が高騰し、不動産バブルが生じていることが最大の懸念材料だ。

Late last year Chinese authorities changed the country's monetary policy and tightened credit, raising interest rates twice. Although these were quite reasonable measures, they will only have a limited effect on holding down inflation.
　中国当局が昨年末、金融政策の方針を転換し、利上げを２回実施するなど、金融引き締めに動いている。これは当然の対応だが、インフレ抑制の効果は限定的だ。

There also are signs the economic bubble is expanding.
バブルが加速する気配もある。

How will Beijing cool down its overheated economy, while averting a downturn as a result of rapid credit tightening? Guiding the Chinese economy is very difficult, but its stability will influence the prospects for a full-fledged recovery in the world economy.
　急激な引き締めによる景気失速を避けつつ、景気過熱をどう沈静化するか。舵(かじ)取りは極めて難しい。中国経済の安定が、世界経済の本格回復の行方を左右しよう。

China's yuan currency also is still undergoing reform. Chinese authorities are limiting the yuan's appreciation by intervening in the exchange markets, which means surplus money is in circulation, bringing about price increases.
　人民元改革もまだ途上だ。為替介入で元高を抑制しているため、過剰マネーが市中にあふれ、物価上昇を招いている。

As a result of the currency market interventions, China's foreign reserves reached the unusually high figure of about 2.8 trillion dollars (about 236 trillion yen) at the end of last year. The yuan needs to be revaluated steadily, commensurate to the country's economic strength.
　為替介入の結果、昨年末の外貨準備高が約２・８兆ドル（約２３６兆円）に達したのも異常である。経済力に応じた元の切り上げを着実に実現すべきだ。

It is very important for China to bring about a structural shift to an economy that does not overly depend on exports but is fueled by domestic demand.
　中国にとって重要なのは、過度に輸出に頼らない、内需主導型経済への構造転換である。

The country has a large role to assume in such global issues as fighting global warming. China's international responsibilities as an economic powerhouse will continue to grow.
地球温暖化対策など、グローバルな課題で果たすべき役割も大きい。経済大国の責任はますます重くなる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 21, 2011)
（2011年1月21日01時14分 読売新聞）