中国全人代開幕 経済減速でも続く「強軍路線」

The Yomiuri Shimbun
China’s People’s Congress prioritizes military despite economic slowdown
中国全人代開幕　経済減速でも続く「強軍路線」

Can China bring its economy to a soft landing by comprehensively employing policies such as structural reforms and fiscal measures?
　構造改革や財政出動といった政策を総動員し、経済の軟着陸を図ることができるか。

China’s National People’s Congress has opened.
　中国の全国人民代表大会（全人代＝国会）が開幕した。

In his address to the congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the nation’s economic growth target will be set at “at least 6.5 percent” in the 13th five-year plan for economic and social policies from 2016 to 2020, down from an annual average of 7 percent in the previous plan. The figure was fixed in anticipation of such factors as a declining labor force.
　李克強首相は演説で、２０１６～２０年の経済・社会政策に関する「第１３次５か年計画」の成長率目標を、前計画の年平均７％から引き下げ、「６・５％以上」に設定すると表明した。労働人口の減少などを見込んだものだ。

Li also said the country would further strengthen active fiscal policies. China intends to raise the ratio of the fiscal deficit to the gross domestic product to 3 percent this year from 2.4 percent last year, and expand fiscal expenditure.
　李氏は「積極的な財政政策を一層強化する」とも述べた。今年は国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）に対する財政赤字の比率を前年の２・４％から３％に引き上げ、財政支出を拡大する方針だという。

The slowdown of the Chinese economy has triggered low crude oil prices and economic downturns in other emerging economies.
　中国経済の減速は、原油安や新興国の景気悪化を招いている。

The primary cause for confusion on world financial markets is suspicion whether China will be able to smoothly shift to consumption-oriented stable growth from the high-growth model that depends on investment and exports.
　投資や輸出に依存する高成長モデルから、消費主体の安定成長への転換が順調に進むかどうかを疑う見方が、世界の金融市場を混乱させた主因である。

The administration of President Xi Jinping must fulfill the responsibility of eliminating market concerns through appropriate management of the economy.
　習近平政権は、適切な経済運営で、市場の不安を払拭する責務を果たさねばならない。

The key will be painful reforms, including the selection of ballooning government-owned companies, and the merger and abolition of excessive production facilities, such as those for iron and steel production. It will also be necessary to foster advanced technology industries in robotics, medicine and other fields as a driving force for new economic growth.
　カギを握るのは、肥大化する国有企業の淘汰とうたや鉄鋼などの過剰生産設備の統廃合といった痛みを伴う改革だ。新たな成長の牽引けんいん役として、ロボットや医療などの先端技術産業の育成も必要だろう。

Defense spending grows

It is also important to narrow the income gap between urban and farming areas and create a middle class that can drive consumption-led growth.
　都市と農村の所得格差を縮め、消費主導の成長を担う中間層を創出していくことも大切となる。

Meanwhile, the expansion of China’s military power does not stop. China said at the congress that it would raise its military spending this year by 7.6 percent from the previous year. This is more than triple Japan’s defense-related spending. Although the increase is the first single-digit rise in six years, there is no change to the continuing growth of the country’s military budget.
　一方、中国の軍事力の膨張は止まらない。全人代で発表された今年の軍事予算は前年より７・６％増えた。日本の防衛関係費の３倍以上だ。６年ぶりに１桁の伸びになったものの、予算規模が一段と増大したことに変わりはない。

Li stressed in his address that China would proceed with preparations for military struggle. This reflects the Xi administration’s policy of maintaining a strong military to try to remove U.S. influence in Asia by force.
　李氏は演説で、「軍事闘争への備えを進める」と強調した。アジアから米国の影響力を力ずくで排除しようとする習政権の「強軍路線」を示したものと言えよう。

To cope readily with modern warfare, China implemented a military structural reform to establish joint operation of its air, sea and ground forces and a missile force. Budgets for the air and sea forces will receive priority.
　中国は、現代戦に即応するため、陸海空３軍とロケット軍の統合運用体制を整える軍の機構改革を実施した。海空軍に予算を重点投入するのだろう。

Specifically, the focus of the military buildup is expected to be the construction of submarines and a domestically produced aircraft carrier to support its ambitious maritime advances. China will also likely stress the development of a new type of stealth fighter and a nuclear and missile buildup.
　具体的には、野心的な海洋進出を支える潜水艦や国産空母などの建造が中心となる。新型ステルス戦闘機の開発、核・ミサイルの増強にも力を入れるとみられる。

Above all, China’s military spending is said to largely exceed what was announced. Beijing will not be able to eliminate concerns in the international community if it does not explain sufficiently about its spending to make artificial islands in the South China Sea into military strongholds and other developments. The opaque military expansion of the Xi administration only escalates regional tensions.
　中国の軍事費は、そもそも公表分を大きく上回るとされる。南シナ海の人工島を軍事拠点化する費用などについて十分な説明がなければ、国際社会の懸念は拭えまい。習政権の不透明な軍拡は、地域の緊張を高めるだけである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 6, 2016)