ＥＣＢ追加緩和 金融政策頼みだけでは危うい

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Eurozone economic recovery based just on monetary easing will be fragile
ＥＣＢ追加緩和　金融政策頼みだけでは危うい

Monetary easing alone will not be able to eradicate concerns about deflation and realize a full economic recovery in the eurozone. Other steps will be essential, including expanding public investment and undertaking structural reforms to boost the economy’s growth potential.
　デフレ懸念の払拭と景気の本格回復を実現するには、金融緩和だけでなく、成長力を高める構造改革や公共投資の拡大などが不可欠である。

The European Central Bank has decided on a comprehensive, additional monetary-easing policy that exceeded market expectations.
　欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）が、市場の予想を上回る包括的な追加金融緩和策を決定した。

The ECB will lower the rate of interest paid when private banks deposit surplus funds at the central bank from the current minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.4 percent.
　民間銀行がＥＣＢに余剰資金を預けた際に適用する金利を、今の「マイナス０・３％」から「マイナス０・４％」に引き下げる。

In addition, the ECB will expand its quantitative easing program, which pours capital into the markets. This program, which includes buying government bonds, will be boosted from €60 billion a month to €80 billion (about ¥10 trillion) a month.
　市中に資金を流し込む量的緩和策も拡充する。国債などの買い取りを現在の月６００億ユーロから８００億ユーロ（約１０兆円）に増やす。

The eurozone is on the brink of tumbling into deflation. Sluggish crude oil prices and other factors pushed the single-currency bloc’s February rate of consumer price increases into negative territory for the first time in five months.
　ユーロ圏は、デフレ転落の瀬戸際にある。原油価格の低迷などで、２月の消費者物価上昇率は５か月ぶりのマイナスになった。

Concerns are growing that the eurozone could see low economic growth over an extended period due to a decline in production and exports accompanying a slowdown in China and other emerging economies.
　中国など新興国経済の減速に伴う輸出や生産の減退で、低成長が長期化する不安もくすぶる。

The ECB’s aim of attempting to underpin the economy by launching another wave of monetary easing to dig up demand for capital among companies and individuals is appropriate.
　もう一段の金融緩和を敢行し、企業や個人の資金需要を掘り起こして、経済を下支えしようとするＥＣＢの狙いは適切である。

In the markets, the additional easing was welcomed in some quarters, which sent shares up and the euro down against the dollar. However, before long, share prices dipped and the euro strengthened again.
　ただ、市場では、いったんは追加緩和が好感され、株高・ユーロ安が進んだが、まもなく株安・ユーロ高に転じた。

Risks of easy money

At a press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi stated, “We don’t expect that it will be necessary to reduce rates further.” This comment was made to dash market expectations for further easing.
　ＥＣＢのドラギ総裁が記者会見で「更なる利下げは想定していない」と明言し、一層の緩和を期待する市場を失望させたためだ。

We think this symbolizes the extent to which the eurozone economy has become dependent on monetary easing.
　ユーロ圏経済が、いかに「金融緩和頼み」の状態にあるかを象徴していると言える。

If the ECB continues to push interest rates deeper into negative territory, it runs the risk of worsening side effects such as weakening banks’ earnings and causing real estate prices to soar as money freed up by the easing pours into this sector.
　マイナス金利を拡大し続ければ、銀行の収益悪化や、緩和マネーが流れ込む不動産の価格高騰など副作用が深刻化しかねない。

Germany and other nations that oppose purchasing massive volumes of government bonds may strengthen their opposition to the plan, leading to the unraveling of the unity among euro nations and heightening the risk of sparking turmoil in the markets.
　国債の大量購入に否定的なドイツなどが緩和策への反発を強め、ユーロ圏の結束が乱れて、市場を動揺させるリスクも高まろう。

A recovery of Europe’s economy that relies only on monetary policies will be fragile. As was confirmed during February’s meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 20 major economies, each European country should be using every policy at its disposal, such as devising growth strategies and fiscal stimulus packages.
　金融政策だけに依存する欧州経済の再生は危うい。２月の主要２０か国・地域（Ｇ２０）財務相・中央銀行総裁会議で確認したように、欧州各国は成長戦略や財政出動など他の政策も総動員すべきだ。

In southern European nations, where unemployment levels remain high, labor market reforms and other steps to improve mobility in employment will be vital.
　失業率が高止まりする南欧諸国では、雇用の流動性を高める労働市場改革などが重要となる。

We hope Germany, which has the financial wherewithal to do so, will embark on a program to increase government expenditures to stimulate the economy and pull growth along.
　財政余力のあるドイツは、景気を刺激する歳出拡大に乗り出し、成長を牽引けんいんしてもらいたい。

Another urgent task is restoring the health of the financial system by accelerating efforts by each bank in Europe to dispose of nonperforming loans.
　欧州の各銀行の不良債権処理を加速し、金融システムの健全性を取り戻すことも急務である。

While Europe and Japan continue their monetary easing, the United States is searching for an opportunity to raise interest rates again. Financial authorities in each nation must exercise great care to ensure sudden currency flows seeking to take advantage of differences in the direction of their policies do not throw the markets into confusion.
　欧州と日本が緩和を続ける一方で、米国は追加利上げの時機を探っている。政策の方向性の違いを突く急激な資金移動が市場を攪乱かくらんしないよう、各国の金融当局は細心の注意を払わねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 13, 2016)