ギリシャ危機 国民投票は悲劇の幕開けか

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Does Greek national referendum mark beginning of a tragic drama?
ギリシャ危機　国民投票は悲劇の幕開けか

Did the Greek people raise the curtain on a tragic drama?
　ギリシャ国民は、自らの手で悲劇の幕を開けてしまったのだろうか。

In the national referendum held in Greece on Sunday on structural reform proposals demanded by the European Union, “no” votes accounted for more than 60 percent of the total, surpassing the affirmative votes by an overwhelming margin.
　欧州連合（ＥＵ）などが示した構造改革案の受け入れを巡るギリシャの国民投票で、反対が６割を超え、賛成を大差で上回った。

The rejection of the EU proposals, which were the conditions for resuming financial assistance, has made it more difficult to agree on a bailout package.
　金融支援再開の条件であるＥＵ案が退けられ、合意は一段と難しくなった。

Eurozone countries were to discuss how to respond in a meeting of their leaders Tuesday, but an easy compromise would lead to a backlash from their own peoples. Given the deadlock in negotiations, it has become more likely that Greece will fall into a full-scale default and be pressured to decide whether to leave the eurozone.
　ユーロ圏各国は７日の首脳会議で対応を協議するが、安易な妥協は自国民の反発を招きかねない。交渉の行き詰まりでギリシャが本格的な債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥り、ユーロ圏離脱を迫られるシナリオは現実味を増した。

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras characterized the outcome of the plebiscite as a “victory for democracy.” But he was utterly off the mark.
　チプラス首相が、国民投票の結果について「民主主義の勝利」と位置付けたのは、あまりに見当違いと言わざるを得ない。

In the first place, it was tremendously problematic that he had asked the people to decide the future course of complicated diplomatic negotiations.
　そもそも、複雑な外交交渉の決断を、国民投票に丸投げした手法に大きな問題がある。

The Tsipras administration abruptly decided to call the national referendum amid negotiations with the EU, allowing for about a week before the plebiscite was held. This was too short a period.
　チプラス政権はＥＵ側との交渉中に突如、国民投票を決めた。国民への周知期間は１週間ほどで、あまりに短かった。

It cannot be overlooked that Tsipras created false expectations among the people that Greece would gain a strong negotiating position to press for concessions from the EU with a “no” vote majority.
　反対票が多数を占めれば、ＥＵ側に譲歩を迫る強い交渉力が得られると唱え、国民に誤った期待を抱かせたことも看過できない。

Mutual concessions key

Greece has already restricted cash withdrawals from its banks. If the European Central Bank cuts off emergency financial aid, the country will be forced to walk a tightrope as it will face a deadlock in raising cash from banks.
　ギリシャでは既に、銀行預金の引き出しが制限されている。欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）が緊急支援を打ち切れば、銀行の資金繰りが行き詰まる綱渡りの状況にある。

It was irresponsible that Tsipras did not explain sufficiently to the people the possible adverse effects of raising the level of confrontation with the EU.
　ＥＵ側との対立が激化した際のマイナス面を、国民に十分に説明しなかったのは無責任だ。

Greece could seek to survive a fund shortage by issuing a currency of its own, but this would represent the first step toward an exit from the eurozone. It is feared that the value of a currency with less creditworthiness would plunge and drive the country into serious inflation because it relies on imports for many of its daily necessities.
　独自の通貨を発行し、資金不足をしのぐ選択肢もあるが、ユーロ圏離脱への第一歩を踏み出すことにつながる。信用力のない通貨が暴落し、生活必需品の多くを輸入に頼るギリシャが、深刻なインフレに見舞われる恐れもある。

The Greek people should not be driven into a further predicament. Without sticking to an anti-austerity stance, the Tsipras administration should seek to find realistic concessions by July 20, the deadline for redeeming €3.5 billion in government bonds.
　国民をさらなる苦境に追い込んではなるまい。チプラス政権は反緊縮に拘泥せず、３５億ユーロに上る国債の償還期限が来る７月２０日までに現実的な妥協を図るべきだ。

For its part, it would be unwise for the EU to shut down the channel for negotiations.
　ＥＵ側も、交渉の窓口を閉ざすことは得策ではない。

Financial markets continue to feel the adverse effects of the Greek financial crisis, with the Nikkei Stock Average, for example, plummeting more than 500 points momentarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday.
　東京市場の平均株価が一時５００円以上も急落するなど、金融市場に悪影響が広がっている。

There is concern that anti-EU political parties will gain strength in Spain and Italy and shake confidence in the euro. Another concern is whether Greece, which has a strategically important position in terms of security, will strengthen relations with Russia or China, thereby heightening geopolitical risk.
　スペインやイタリアで反ＥＵ政党が勢力を強め、ユーロの信認を揺さぶる懸念がある。安全保障上の要衝にあるギリシャがロシアや中国と関係を強め、地政学的なリスクが高まることも心配だ。

To avoid restoking a Europe-originated financial crisis and to prevent it from seriously affecting economic and political stability, the EU must do whatever it can to break the stalemate.
　欧州発の危機を再燃させ、経済や政治の安定に深刻な打撃を与えないよう、ＥＵ側も事態打開に最善を尽くさねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 7, 2015)