中国株乱高下 強引な市場介入が招いた混迷

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Heavy-handed intervention behind turmoil roiling Chinese stock markets
中国株乱高下　強引な市場介入が招いた混迷

Recent events have reinforced just how difficult it is to steer the Chinese economy through the slowdown it is facing.
　景気減速に直面する中国経済のかじ取りの困難さを、改めて印象づけたと言えよう。

Chinese stock prices are continuing their wild fluctuations.
　中国株の乱高下が続いている。

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, China’s leading stock index, surged from the latter half of 2014. In June this year, the index reached about 2½ times its level a year earlier. However, after the index peaked, the market was swamped by a mood of selling. The Shanghai index has plunged as much as 30 percent in the past month.
　代表的な株価指数である上海総合指数は、昨年後半から急騰し、今年６月に１年前の２・５倍に跳ね上がった。ところが、ピークから一転して売り一色となり、ここ１か月で３割も急落した。

The panic on the Chinese stock market is having repercussions in markets around the globe. The Nikkei Stock Average in Tokyo has dipped below 20,000.
　東京市場の平均株価が２万円を割り込むなど、中国株の波乱は世界の市場にも飛び火している。

On Thursday, prices on the Shanghai exchange regained some ground as expectations rose regarding steps taken by Chinese authorities to push up share prices. However, doubts linger over the staying power of these measures. Investors will need to exercise caution over volatile share price movements for a while yet.
　９日の上海市場は、中国当局が打ち出した株価対策への期待を背景に上昇に転じたが、持続力には疑問がある。しばらくは、不安定な値動きに注意が必要だろう。

It should be recognized that the chaos on the Chinese stock market was brought about by failed policies of the authorities.
　認識すべきなのは、株式市場の混乱が、当局の失政によってもたらされたことである。

In an attempt to shore up the economy, which was losing steam due to the deterioration of real estate market conditions and other factors, China launched a string of policies to nudge up share prices and stimulate private consumption. The appetite to invest was whetted as interest rates were lowered several times and state-run media carried predictions that share prices would continue to rise.
　不動産市況の悪化などで低迷した景気の下支えを狙い、株価をつり上げ、個人消費を刺激する政策に乗り出した。利下げを繰り返した上に、国営メディアを通じて株高はまだ続くとの観測を流し、投資家心理をあおった。

The authorities bear a heavy responsibility for creating a “government-manufactured bubble” to prime the economic pump.
　景気対策のために「官製バブル」を生成させた責任は重い。

Hurt by short-term view

As the downward trend in share prices gathered strength, Chinese authorities rolled out a slew of policies for propping up stock prices, with little regard to how these actions might appear to the public. Major securities companies were even ordered to buy about ¥2.4 trillion of exchange-traded funds.
　株価が下げを強めると、当局は大手証券会社に総額約２・４兆円の上場投資信託の買い入れを求めるなど、なりふり構わない株価維持策に打って出た。

This spur-of-the-moment market intervention by the authorities has undeniably laid bare the peculiarities of the Chinese stock market.
　当局による場当たり的な市場介入が、中国の株式市場の特異性を際立たせた面は否めまい。

The immaturity of the Chinese market has also added to the confusion.
　中国市場の未熟さも、混乱に拍車をかけた要因だ。

Because the participation of overseas investors is restricted in the Chinese markets, about 80 percent of all transactions are conducted by individual domestic investors.
　海外投資家の参加が制限されているため、国内の個人投資家が取引の８割を占めている。

These individual investors have soared in number since the market began rising last year. They strongly tend to make buy and sell decisions based on short-term price movements and other data, and observers have said this is one reason share prices make such sudden, sweeping changes in direction.
　昨年来の上昇相場で急増した個人投資家は、目先の値動きなどで売買を判断する傾向が強く、株価が一方的に振れる原因になっていると指摘される。

One peculiar element of the Chinese market is the system that allows a company to decide to suspend trading of its shares. There are numerous problems with hampering the free purchase and sale of shares due to the circumstances of a given company.
　企業の判断で株式売買を停止できる制度も、中国市場に特有のものだ。企業の事情で自由な売買を阻害するのは問題が多い。

China is seeking to switch from a model of high economic growth centered on development investment, to a “new normal” that will allow a soft landing through stable growth driven by consumption.
　中国は、開発投資が中心の高成長から、消費主導の安定成長へ軟着陸させる「新常態」（ニューノーマル）を目指している。

However, Beijing has been unable to put the brakes on the slowdown in economic growth. The Chinese government has again started steps to prop up the economy through investment, including its decision to establish a new ¥6 trillion fund to be used for investment in infrastructure development.
　だが、成長減速に歯止めがかからず、中国政府は、インフラ投資に使う６兆円の新基金設立を決めるなど、再び投資による景気テコ入れに動き始めた。

Shifting to policies that could generate a new bubble will inhibit China’s mid- and long-term growth. This aberration in the world’s second-largest economic power must not be allowed to develop into a situation that shakes the global economy.
　新たなバブルを起こしかねない政策への転換は、中長期的な成長を阻害しよう。世界第２の経済大国の迷走が、世界経済を揺るがす事態は避けねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 10, 2015)