ギリシャ合意 危機回避へまだ楽観できない

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Agreement on Greek debt warrants no optimism that crisis has ended
ギリシャ合意　危機回避へまだ楽観できない

At a summit meeting, 19 eurozone countries within the European Union agreed in principle to resume support for Greece.
　欧州連合（ＥＵ）のユーロ圏１９か国の首脳会議が、ギリシャ支援の再開で原則合意した。

The key accord is to provide support of up to €86 billion (about ¥11.7 trillion) over a three-year period.
　今後３年間に最大８６０億ユーロ（１１・７兆円）の支援を実施することが柱だ。

It is laudable that after marathon negotiations lasting 17 hours they avoided a rupture that could have led to Greece’s financial collapse and its exit from the eurozone for the moment.
　１７時間に及ぶ「マラソン協議」の末、決裂によるギリシャの財政破綻やユーロ圏離脱を、ひとまず回避したことは評価できる。

However, as a condition for extending this support, Greece is required to legislate by Wednesday structural reforms to reduce pensions, raise taxes and other measures. There is no reason to be optimistic.
　ただし、支援の実施は、ギリシャが１５日までに年金削減や増税などの構造改革を法制化することが条件だ。楽観は禁物だろう。

The administration of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must make every possible effort for the legislation within the time limit so as not to rekindle the crisis.
　チプラス政権は、危機を再燃させないため、期限内の法制化に全力を挙げなければならない。

The main cause of the tortuous negotiations lies in Tsipras’ insincere and irresponsible attitude toward them.
　協議が迷走した最大の原因は、チプラス首相の不誠実かつ無責任な交渉姿勢にある。

In addition to continually putting off submission of draft proposals for reforms that the EU sought, Tsipras abruptly decided to hold a national referendum on whether to accept fiscal austerity. He called on the Greek public to vote “no” so he could be in a better position in negotiations.
　ＥＵ側が求めた改革案の提示を先送りし続けた揚げ句、唐突に緊縮財政の是非を問う国民投票に踏み切った。チプラス氏は、交渉を有利にできるとして、国民に「反対」を呼び掛けた。

Although more people voted “no” in the referendum than otherwise, the agreement this time has imposed stricter conditions on Greece, including the sale of state-owned assets worth €50 billion.
　投票の結果、反対派が勝利したものの、今回の合意では５００億ユーロ相当の国有財産売却など、一段と厳しい条件をつけられた。

It is the price that Greece has to pay for being too clever by half, resulting in increasing distrust from Germany and other countries.
　場当たり的に様々な策を弄し、ドイツをはじめ各国の不信感を増幅させたツケである。

Challenge for Tsipras

The referendum left Tsipras facing a heavy challenge domestically — how to explain an agreement containing austerity measures to people who opposed such measures, and then how to obtain their understanding.
　「反緊縮」の民意を示した国民に、緊縮策の受け入れを前提とした合意をどう説明し、理解を得るのか。国民投票は、ギリシャの内政にも重い課題を残した。

Even within the ruling party, there is a force that opposes the austerity measures. There is concern that Tsipras’ political foundation could be undermined and the government may not be able to implement the agreed fiscal reconstruction measures.
　与党内からも、緊縮策の受け入れに異を唱える造反勢力が現れている。チプラス氏の政権基盤が揺らぎ、合意した財政再建策を実行できなくなる懸念もあろう。

Due to three rounds of financial support from 2010, the debt incurred by Greece will exceed €300 billion. Unless Greece rebuilds its flagging economy, it will not be able to continue to repay its debts. The country must rapidly reform its ineffective industrial structure and achieve economic independence.
　２０１０年から今回まで３次にわたる金融支援で、ギリシャが負った債務は総額３０００億ユーロを超える。低迷する経済を立て直さないと、返済は継続できまい。非効率な産業構造を改革し、経済の自立を急がねばならない。

The Greek issue again shows in bold relief the contradiction of the euro system.
　ギリシャ問題は、ユーロ体制の矛盾も改めて浮き彫りにした。

Eurozone countries have adopted a concerted financial policy under the common euro, but engage in fiscal management independently. Therefore, they suffer from a structural problem — they cannot reduce the economic gap among member nations through fiscal policies, thereby widening the disparity.
　共通通貨の下、金融政策は一つだが、財政は各国が独自に運営している。このため、各国間の経済格差を財政政策で調整できず、さらに格差が広がるという、構造的な問題を抱えている。

Germany and northern European countries, which are healthy economically and fiscally, asked Greece for stern fiscal discipline, while France and southern European countries, such as Italy, which are economically and fiscally uncertain, showed a sympathetic attitude toward Greece.
　経済と財政の健全なドイツや北欧の国が、ギリシャに厳しい財政規律を求めたのに対し、自国も景気や財政に不安のあるフランスやイタリアなどの南欧諸国は、ギリシャに同情的だった。

To maintain eurozone unity, it is important not to exacerbate this “north-south problem.”
　ユーロ圏の結束を維持するには、この「南北問題」を先鋭化させないことが重要である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 15, 2015)