（社説）衆院選 首相の増税先送り 「いきなり解散」の短絡

二年前民主党に見切りをつけて自民党に乗り換えたのは正解だったと思います。
ただ見込み違いがひとつだけありました。
自民党にもたくさん派閥があります。
リフレ派が自民党の主導権をにぎったのが悲劇の始まりなんです。

どこまでも円安思考の、大企業と富裕層向けのスキームで、庶民が輸入物価高でどんなに苦しくなろうと、それは日本経済のためになるとうそぶき知らん顔（売国奴黒田日銀総裁）。
これでは国民の大多数を占める庶民はたまったものではありません。

未曾有の少子高齢化社会に突入している日本です。
なぜ毎年毎年2%の物価高をめざすのでしょうか？
それよりも為替レートの安定、ひいては輸入物価の安定を願います。
多くの国民の願いではないでしょうか。

日本はアメリカ式の金融緩和政策を輸入しているわけですが、その規模はGDP比率でアメリカをしのぎます。
アメリカ株式市場はやっと景気回復を果たしていますが、100年に一度とも称される貧富の差を生んでしまいました。

お金がすべて。
そんなつまらない世の中、社会構造を造りだすアベノミクスに反対します。
アベノミクスは欧米ではバンザイノミクスという蔑称をもらっています。
おろかな政策なんです。
（スラチャイ）

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 19
EDITORIAL: Abe's patently self-serving, short-circuited election move
（社説）衆院選　首相の増税先送り　「いきなり解散」の短絡

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Nov. 18 announced he will postpone the additional consumption tax hike scheduled for October next year and dissolve the Lower House on Nov. 21.
　安倍首相が、来年１０月に予定されていた消費税率再引き上げの先送りと、２１日の衆院解散を表明した。

The latest economic figures, released on Nov. 17, showed Japan’s real gross domestic product had shrunk by 1.6 percent in annualized terms, which was a lot worse than what private-sector analysts had projected.
　おととい発表された直近の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の実質成長率は、年率換算で１・６％の減。事前の民間予測を大きく下回った。

“After 15 years of struggling with deflation, we cannot possibly let go of our chances of overcoming it,” Abe said. But, referring to the 18-month delay, he stated unequivocally that this will be the last time the consumption tax hike will be postponed, and that the public will be the judge of his policy change in the upcoming snap election.
　首相はこれを受け「１５年間苦しんできたデフレから脱却するチャンスを手放すわけにはいかない」と判断。ただ、１８カ月間の先送り後の再延期はないと断言し、その政策変更の是非を総選挙で問うという。

The GDP decline for the second consecutive quarter was certainly shocking. But if the consumption tax hike has to be delayed because of the economic downturn, all that needs to be done is to amend the consumption tax hike law, and this has the support of the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan.
　確かに２期連続のマイナス成長はショッキングだ。ただ、もとより景気悪化による増税の先送りは消費増税法を改正すれば認められるし、民主党もその判断は受け入れている。

Right now, the Abe administration ought to be focused entirely on revising the law through Diet deliberations and finessing his Abenomics package of growth policies to correct its inherent flaws.
　国会審議をへて法改正し、アベノミクスの足らざる部分を補う。安倍政権がまず全力で取り組むべきことである。

But without doing any of that, the administration has abruptly decided to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election. We can only conclude that the administration has some hidden political motive of its own.
　その努力をする前のいきなりの衆院解散は、短絡に過ぎる。別の政治的打算が隠されていると考えざるを得ない。

JUSTIFICATION FOR SNAP ELECTION?
　●解散に理はあるか

Stressing the rationale for dissolving the Lower House, Abe noted at a news conference on Nov. 18: “Why was the DPJ routed (in the election) two years ago? That was because the party decided to raise the consumption tax without holding an election, despite having never mentioned (the tax hike) in its campaign statement.”
　首相はきのうの記者会見で、「なぜ２年前、民主党が大敗したのか。マニフェストに書いてない消費税引き上げを、国民の信を問うことなく行ったからだ」と解散の意義を強調した。

In the 2009 Lower House election campaign, the DPJ promised not to raise the consumption tax, and came into power. But failing to generate new revenue sources, the DPJ was forced to switch policies, which caused the party to implode and be trounced in the last Lower House election.
　民主党は０９年の衆院選で消費増税はしないと訴え、政権を奪った。ところが新たな財源を生み出せずに政策転換に追い込まれ、党の分裂と前回衆院選での大敗を招いた。

Abe was correct in his analysis of the DPJ’s blunder. But this is irrelevant to his decision to hold an election.
　民主党の失敗についての首相の見方はその通りだろう。だが、今回の首相の姿勢とは同列には論じられない。

In what situations is the prime minister justified to exercise his prerogative to dissolve the Lower House? The general understanding is that in one such case, an issue that was a nonissue during the election campaign suddenly emerges as a contentious topic.
　首相の解散権行使が理にかなうのはどういう場合か。前の選挙では意識されなかった争点が浮上した時、

Another is when a confrontation between the prime minister and the Diet is beyond remedy.
または首相と国会との対立が抜き差しならなくなった時というのが、一般的な考え方だ。

Does either of these cases apply now?
　今回はどうか。

The consumption tax hike law, which is based on an agreement in summer 2012 among the DPJ, the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito on the so-called integrated social security and tax reforms, provides for tax hikes in two stages as well as for a postponement of an increase in the event of an economic downturn.
１２年夏の「社会保障と税の一体改革」の民主、自民、公明の３党合意に基づく消費増税法は、２段階の消費税率引き上げを定めつつ、景気が悪化した時の先送り条項も設けている。

After Abe became leader of the opposition LDP, he and then Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda promised that the three parties would commit themselves to “painful reforms,” such as reducing the number of Diet seats, in exchange for making the public bear a heavier cost burden. This was a focal issue in the 2012 Lower House election, which returned the LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, to power.
　３党がそろって国民に負担増を求める代わりに、定数削減などの「身を切る改革」を断行する――。安倍氏と当時の野田首相とのこの約束が問われた２年前の衆院選で、自公両党は政権に復帰した。

After the coalition gained control of both chambers of the Diet in the Upper House election last summer, the Abe administration has since enjoyed stable government, and Abe reshuffled his Cabinet only as recently as in September. And yet, he is “sacking” all the Lower House legislators, who still have more than half their term left, before reducing the seats.
　昨夏の参院選でねじれも解消し、首相の政権基盤は安定している。９月に内閣改造もしたばかりだ。それでも任期４年の折り返しにもいたらぬ衆院議員の身を切る前に「首を切る」。

The order is back-to-front.
あべこべではないか。

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF PEOPLE'S WILL
　●国民の思い逆手に

A tax hike is a painful option for the people as well as their elected representatives.
　増税は、政治家にも国民にもつらい選択である。

Revenues generated by the consumption tax hike will be used for social security spending on such things as child-care support and pension payments that are relevant to virtually all citizens. But even then, it is only natural for people not to want a tax hike.
　消費増税で得られる財源は、子育てや年金などほぼすべての国民に関係する社会保障関係費にあてられる。それがわかっていても、「増税はいや」というのは自然な感情だ。

In fact, an Asahi Shimbun opinion poll conducted earlier this month found 67 percent of the respondents against the tax hike scheduled for October 2015. At the same time, 66 percent of the respondents also said they were worried that not raising the tax would have negative consequences on the social security system. The numbers reveal the public’s conflicted feelings.
　実際、今月の朝日新聞の世論調査では、来年１０月の税率引き上げには６７％が反対と答えた。同時に、それで社会保障に悪影響が出ることを不安に感じると答えた人が６６％もいる。国民の複雑な思いを表した数字だ。

If the consumption tax is to be the sole focus of the snap election, voters will be less motivated to vote against the prime minister’s decision, and even less so if he promotes an economic improvement package at the same time.
　仮に消費税だけが問われる選挙なら、有権者が首相の判断を覆す一票を投じる動機は弱くなる。「景気対策」という名の付録がつけばなおさらだ。

If Abe is aware of all this and still wants the public to vote on whether to postpone the tax hike or not, he cannot escape being criticized as a populist.
　それを知りつつ、あえて先送りの是非を問うなら、ポピュリズムとの批判はまぬがれない。

Dissolving the Lower House for a snap election can be justified only when the forces demanding financial reconstruction make it impossible to revise the consumption tax hike law to delay the tax hike.
　財政再建を重視する勢力の反対で、増税先送りの法改正はできそうにないという状況になって、初めて衆院解散の理屈が立つというものだ。

ABE'S REAL MOTIVE
　●「信を問う」の本音は

In the process of deliberating the state secrets protection bill last year, as well as when Japan’s participation in collective self-defense was under discussion this past summer, Abe did not even pretend to seek the judgment of the people on these issues, even though these had everything to do with freedom of expression, pacifism and other values entrenched in the Constitution. Moreover, many citizens were vehemently opposed to the Abe administration’s position on these issues.
　首相は昨年の特定秘密保護法案の審議や今夏の集団的自衛権の容認をめぐる議論の過程では、国民の審判を仰ぐそぶりすら見せなかった。
　表現の自由や平和主義という憲法価値の根幹にかかわり、多くの国民が反対した問題であるにもかかわらずだ。

Having refused to let the people weigh in on these highly divisive issues, Abe now invites them to weigh in on whether to postpone the unpopular consumption tax hike. Politics always contains an element of power struggle, but what Abe is doing is patently self-serving.
　国論を二分する争点は素通りし、有権者の耳にやさしい「負担増の先送り」で信を問う。政治には権力闘争の側面があるにせよ、あまりに都合のよい使い分けではないか。

When changing the government's interpretation of the Constitution was the subject of debate during the last ordinary session of the Diet, Abe stated: “The ultimate responsibility lies with me. Based on this fact, we will let the public judge in an election.” These words revealed his pathetic misunderstanding of democracy, as if he thinks he can do anything so long as he wins an election.
　首相は先の通常国会で、憲法解釈の変更について「最高の責任者は私だ。そのうえで私たちは選挙で国民の審判を受ける」と答弁した。「選挙で勝てば何でもできる」と言わんばかりの乱暴な民主主義観である。

From now until next year, the Abe administration will be tackling even more divisive issues, such as restarting nuclear reactors and preparing laws to enable Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defense.
　来年にかけて安倍政権は、原発の再稼働や集団的自衛権の行使容認に伴う法整備など、賛否がより分かれる課題に取り組もうとしている。

Before starting debate on these highly sensitive issues, why not get an election over and done with to secure a new, four-year mandate that will give the administration free hand in governance.
　世論の抵抗がより強いこれらの議論に入る前に選挙をすませ、新たな４年の任期で「何でもできる」フリーハンドを確保しておきたい――。

This is what Abe has in mind--and voters must know it.
　そんな身勝手さに、有権者も気づいているにちがいない。