（社説）政治と増税 解散に大義はあるか

今回の騒動、安倍首相の指導力を根幹から問われるような事件であると思います。
もしも安倍首相が、内々で消費税再増税延期と衆院解散総選挙を内定していたとなれば、彼は相当は悪人ということになります。
金儲けをするためにはどんなこともやる自民党の手法にはうんざりしています。
庶民のささやかな幸せのことなど眼中にないようです。
その証拠に急激な円安に対する目配りだって、約束したのに、実態は野放しでなんです。
もしも解散総選挙がなされれば自民党には絶対入れません。
（スラチャイ）

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 12
EDITORIAL: No good rationale for calling a snap election
（社説）政治と増税　解散に大義はあるか

First, there were just low whispers that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was considering dissolving the Lower House for a snap election. But before we knew it, the powerful winds of dissolution started whipping up in Japanese political circles.
　「安倍首相が衆院解散を検討している」。こんなささやきが、あれよあれよという間に解散風という突風になって吹き荒れている。

Toshihiro Nikai, chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s General Council, has pledged to “make all necessary preparations (for an election).” Natsuo Yamaguchi, chief representative of Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, has ordered senior party officials to start preparing for a poll.
　自民党の二階総務会長は「万全の態勢を整えていく」と語り、公明党の山口代表も選挙準備に入るよう党幹部に指示した。

Banri Kaieda, president of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, has assumed a brave attitude, saying, “We are ready to take up the gauntlet.”
民主党の海江田代表も「受けて立つ」と勇ましい。

According to one rumored game plan, Abe will postpone the consumption tax rate hike to 10 percent that is slated for October next year following the Nov. 17 release of preliminary gross domestic product data for the July-September quarter. He will then announce his intention to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election to seek a popular mandate for his tax policy decision.
　語られているシナリオのひとつは、こうだ。１７日に発表される７～９月の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の速報値を受け、首相は来年１０月に予定されている消費税率の１０％への引き上げの先送りを決断、その是非を問うために衆院の解散を表明する。

Abe, who is currently on an overseas tour, has stressed he has made no decision on when he will dissolve the Lower House. He brushed aside news reports about his intention to call an election, saying they are simply based on speculation.
　外遊中の安倍首相は、「解散のタイミングは何ら決めていない。臆測に基づく報道だ」と強調する。

But now the stormy winds of election appear unlikely to die down.
それでも、いったん吹き始めた風はどうにも止まりそうにない。

It is unsettling to see how things are panning out in this nation’s political arena.
　こんな政治のありように、強い違和感を覚える。

The scheduled consumption tax increase, intended as a key component of integrated tax and social security reform, is based on an agreement among the DPJ, the LDP and Komeito that was reached in June 2012 when the DPJ was in power. The agreement has since been enshrined into law.
　消費税率の引き上げは、民主党政権下の１２年６月、社会保障と税の一体改革として民主、自民、公明の３党で合意され、法にも明記された。

But a supplementary provision in the law says the final decision on the tax hike should depend on economic conditions.
ただ、法の付則には、経済状況によって最終判断する趣旨の規定がある。

The three-party agreement calls for a measure that will inevitably cause pain to taxpayers. It represents a sort of transpartisan political effort to tackle head-on the grim reality of swelling social security spending amid a serious revenue shortage. It is a painful but important step.
　３党合意は、国民に痛みを強いる内容だ。社会保障費の増大と財源不足という現実に、与野党を超えて政治が正面から向き合うという、苦いけれど重たい意味があった。

At first glance, there seems to be good justification for calling an election to seek a public mandate for the decision to postpone the tax increase, which effectively breaches the three-party accord.
　その合意を破棄する形になる以上、総選挙で信を問うというのはひとつの理屈かも知れない。

But we find it hard to accept this argument at face value.
だが、額面通りにはとても受け取れない。

The Abe administration has said the GDP data for the July-September quarter will be a crucial factor for the tax decision. This has become a common understanding in both the ruling and opposition camps.
　政権は７～９月のＧＤＰを判断のよりどころにすると言い、それが与野党の共通認識となってきた。

But all this talk about an election is happening before the GDP figures come out.
その数字が明らかになる前のこの騒ぎである。

It is hard not to suspect that the ruling camp is moving toward an election based purely on political motives driven by the fear that raising the consumption tax again in the face of strong public opposition could prove a political disaster.
増税に反対の世論が強い中、これに逆らうことは難しいという政局的な判断が先に立ったのかと疑わざるを得ない。

This view is further supported by certain remarks made by senior ruling party officials.
　加えて、与党幹部から聞こえてくるのはこんな声だ。

A Lower House election next year will be an uphill battle for the ruling party because offline nuclear reactors will restart and Diet debate on bills to legalize Japan’s use of its right to collective self-defense will start, according to one such official.
　「原発再稼働や集団的自衛権の関連法整備が控える来年に衆院選を戦うのは厳しい」

“We are in a strong political position now (to face an election) because opposition parties are not prepared,” said another.
「野党の選挙準備がととのっていない今が有利だ」

This is a picture of purely partisan political theater.
　まさに党利党略。

The tax increase, which puts an additional monetary burden on the public, is designed to secure the long-term financial sustainability of social security.
国民に負担増を求めることになっても、社会保障を将来にわたって持続可能にする――。

The remarks made by senior ruling party officials indicate they think it is more important to ensure that they remain in power than to achieve this vital policy goal.
こうした政策目標よりも、政権の座を持続可能にすることの方が大切だと言わんばかりではないか。

It is not yet clear what Abe really thinks.
　安倍首相の本心はまだ不明である。

But democracy is not a game.
だが、民主主義はゲームではない。

There is no rationale for dissolving the Lower House now.
こんな解散に大義があるとは思えない。