リーマン５年 新たなリスクに問われる結束

The Yomiuri Shimbun September 8, 2013
G-20 unity needed to tackle new economic challenges
リーマン５年　新たなリスクに問われる結束（9月7日付・読売社説）

The worst is in the past for the world economy, but the recovery lacks vigor. Industrialized and newly emerging economies alike must strengthen cooperation to make economic growth compatible with fiscal reconstruction.
　世界経済は最悪期を脱したが、景気回復は力強さを欠く。経済成長と財政再建の両立へ、先進国と新興国は連携を強化する必要がある。

The declaration adopted after the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Russia stated, “Strengthening growth and creating jobs is our top priority and we are fully committed to taking decisive actions to return to a job-rich, strong, sustainable and balanced growth path.”
　Ｇ２０サミットが採択した首脳宣言は、「成長強化と雇用創出を最優先課題」とし、「持続的で均衡ある成長への回帰を目指して断固たる行動を取る」と強調した。

It has been almost exactly five years since the so-called Lehman Shock, triggered by the bankruptcy of major U.S. securities house Lehman Brothers, brought the world to the brink of depression.
　米大手証券リーマン・ブラザーズが経営破綻し、世界恐慌の寸前まで陥ったリーマン・ショックから、まもなく５年を迎える。

At the G-20 summit held in November 2008 in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Shock, Japan, the United States and Europe joined hands with China and other emerging economies and agreed to take all possible measures, such as large-scale stimulus programs and ultraloose monetary policy, to overcome the unprecedented shock.
　リーマン・ショック後のＧ２０サミットでは、日米欧と中国など新興国が結束し、大型景気対策や超金融緩和策などの総動員で空前のショックを乗り切った。

Now, however, the G-20 is suffering the aftereffects of those exceptional measures. It should be assumed that difficulties will continue.
　だが、Ｇ２０は今、危機克服のための異例の対策がもたらす後遺症に苦しめられている。試練がなお続いていると見るべきだ。

Attention will be focused for the moment on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to soon launch an “exit strategy” of scaling back quantitative monetary easing.
　当面の焦点は、米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が近く、量的緩和策を縮小する「出口戦略」に踏み出しそうなことである。

Investment funds have begun to flow back from emerging economies, including Brazil and India, into the U.S. market in anticipation of hikes in U.S. interest rates.
　米金利上昇を先取りする形でブラジル、インドなどの新興国から投機資金が流出し、米国市場に戻る動きがでている。

Inflationary trends have appeared in emerging economies, as their currencies have been rapidly weakening, which causes import prices to rise. Discontent has mounted due to the continued business slowdown. It is feared that deterioration of the business climate in emerging economies will adversely affect industrialized countries.
　新興国では急激に通貨安が進み、輸入物価上昇を引き金にしたインフレ傾向が目立つ。景気減速も続いており、不満は高まっている。新興国経済の変調が先進国にも悪影響を及ぼしかねない。

Ripple effects feared

The latest G-20 declaration stated that member nations would take note of negative knock-on effects. Behind this could be their stronger caution toward risks and consideration to emerging economies.
　首脳宣言が「負の波及効果に留意する」と明記したのは、こうしたリスクへの警戒感を強め、新興国に配慮したのだろう。

To prevent the world market from falling into chaos, countries must cooperate with each other and pay attention to excessive fund movements.
　世界の市場の混乱を回避するため、各国が連携し、行き過ぎた資金移動を注視すべきである。

The European financial crisis, which became more serious following the Lehman Shock, has begun to show signs of coming to a close. But a full-scale recovery is far from expected yet, and close watch still must be kept.
　リーマン・ショック後に深刻化した欧州危機は収束の兆しが出てきたが、景気の本格回復にはほど遠く、まだ警戒は怠れない。

Ballooning of fiscal deficits in the G-20 nations is another challenge to tackle. It is natural that the Leaders’ Declaration and the Action Plan emphasized the need to achieve economic growth and fiscal soundness in a balanced manner.
　各国の財政赤字拡大も課題といえる。首脳宣言と行動計画が、経済成長と財政健全化を両立させる必要性を強調したのは当然だ。

Attention was focused on Japan, which has the biggest fiscal deficit.
　注目されたのは、先進国最悪の財政赤字を抱える日本だった。

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed his determination to end deflation and revitalize the Japanese economy by implementing his Abenomics economic policies and explained about the country’s medium-term fiscal program.
　安倍首相は、経済政策「アベノミクス」によって、デフレ脱却と日本経済を再生させる決意を強調し、中期財政計画も説明した。

Other G-20 nations did not make any special requests of Japan, but the country is being tested as to whether it can put words into action.
　各国から日本に特に注文はなかったというものの、問われるのは日本の実行力だろう。

Abe will decide in early October whether to raise the consumption tax next spring as scheduled. Japan’s economic revival is largely expected to stimulate the global economy. He is urged to make a judgment while also taking into account the recently intensified Syrian situation.
　首相は１０月初めに予定通り来春に消費税率を引き上げるかどうかを決める。日本の経済再生が世界景気に弾みをつけることに期待は大きい。緊迫するシリア情勢も踏まえた判断が求められる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 7, 2013)
（2013年9月7日02時02分  読売新聞）