ＦＲＢ金融緩和 「出口戦略」への難しい舵取り

The Yomiuri Shimbun September 23, 2013
U.S. Federal Reserve Board faces long, difficult road to QE3 exit
ＦＲＢ金融緩和　「出口戦略」への難しい舵取り（9月22日付・読売社説）

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided not to scale down its monetary “QE3” quantitative easing policy implemented to deal with the financial crisis.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、金融危機対策として続けてきた量的緩和策第３弾（ＱＥ３）の縮小を見送った。

It was a surprise decision for the market as many observers expected the Fed to take the first step of its exit strategy for ending QE3.
　ＱＥ３の終了に向け、「出口戦略」の第一歩を踏み出すという観測が多かっただけに、サプライズと言える。

However, the path to the exit is not clear. The markets speculate the Fed would scale down its economic stimulus program in December. The central bank will face some difficult maneuvering from here on.
　出口への道は不透明である。市場では早くも「縮小は１２月」との見方が浮上しているが、ＦＲＢは難しい舵(かじ)取りを迫られよう。

The Fed held a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and decided to maintain the central bank’s $85 billion (¥8.4 trillion) monthly purchases of the U.S. government bonds, an unusual way to supply funds to the market.
　ＦＲＢは、連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）を開き、米国債などを毎月８５０億ドル（約８・４兆円）買い入れて資金を市場に供給する異例の対策を維持した。

The Fed said it would like to await conclusive evidence on improvement of the economy and employment before deciding to reduce its stimulus.
　「景気や雇用情勢の改善を確実に見届けるまで判断を待ちたい」との声明を発表した。

It has apparently chosen the safer option of ensuring lasting economic recovery rather than rushing for the exit. The U.S. economy has been showing signs of recovery since the annualized growth rate of its gross domestic product increased by 2.5 percent in April-June quarter compared to the previous quarter.
　あえて出口へ急がず、景気の持続的な回復を最優先する安全策を選択したのだろう。
　米国経済は、４～６月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の伸び率が前期比年率で２・５％増となり、景気回復基調が鮮明になってきた。

But the employment situation remains a concern. Though the jobless rate dropped to 7.3 percent in August, the number of workers in the nonagricultural sector is still increasing very slowly.
　しかし、気掛かりは雇用情勢である。８月の失業率は７・３％に低下したが、非農業部門の就業者数の増加ペースは緩慢だ。

Meanwhile, the central bank is wary of negative effects from the recent hike of long-term borrowing rates. Stymied negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties over the U.S. debt ceiling, which will be exceeded in mid-October, might cast a shadow over economic prospects.
　ＦＲＢは最近の長期金利の上昇による悪影響も警戒している。１０月半ばに迫った連邦債務上限を巡る与野党協議の難航は、景気の先行きに影を落としかねない。

Dialogue with market

New York stock prices soared right after the Fed’s decision to maintain the pace of its QE3 as many investors took heart from the development.
　ＱＥ３縮小の先送り直後、ニューヨーク株価が急騰したのは、安心感が広がったからだろう。

In light of expectations that the Fed would implement its exit strategy, speculative funds were flowing out of emerging economies but have been returning since the Fed’s decision, and fears of an economic slowdown have been alleviated.
　ＦＲＢの出口戦略を先取りする形で投機マネーが流出していた新興国でも、現地通貨が買い戻され景気減速懸念が少し和らいだ。

If the Fed had acted hastily, it would have had a great impact on the global economy and market, including Japan. The Fed’s wise decision to avoid confusion is praiseworthy.
　ＦＲＢが拙速に動けば、日本を含めて、世界景気や市場に多大な影響を与える。ひとまず混乱を回避できた点は歓迎したい。

Nevertheless, it cannot continue the large-scale quantitative easing for good because of such negative effects as excessive funds circulating around the globe, causing asset-inflated bubbles.
　ただし、ＦＲＢはいつまでも大規模な量的緩和策を続けることはできない。過剰マネーが世界を駆け巡り、資産バブルを引き起こす副作用も懸念される。

The central bank’s stated policy was to start scaling back QE3 by year-end and to terminate it around the middle of next year. Even if it follows this plan, the exit route remains long. The Fed needs to hold dialogues with the market to avoid causing confusion.
　ＦＲＢは「年内にＱＥ３縮小を開始し、来年半ばに終了する」との方針を示してきた。その通りに踏み出したとしても、出口までの道は長い。混乱を招かないよう、「市場との対話」が要る。

Now, attention is focused on who will succeed the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, whose term expires at the end of January. U.S. President Barack Obama has given up replacing Bernanke with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who had been considered the front-runner for the job.
　来年１月末に任期が切れるバーナンキＦＲＢ議長の後任人事も焦点だ。オバマ大統領は、最有力候補とみられたサマーズ元財務長官の指名断念を発表した。

The field has been narrowed to only a few candidates, including Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, now considered the favorite. We hope Obama will decide as soon as possible on a successor to Bernanke and try to stabilize U.S. financial policy.
　イエレンＦＲＢ副議長を軸に最終調整される見通しだが、大統領は早期に後任を指名し、金融政策の安定を目指してもらいたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 22, 2013)
（2013年9月22日01時13分  読売新聞）