中国ＧＤＰ 景気減速をどう食い止める

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Oct. 22, 2012)
Can China rise to the challenge of stemming GDP slowdown?
中国ＧＤＰ　景気減速をどう食い止める（10月21日付・読売社説）

With the impact of the European debt crisis still being felt and Japan-China ties remaining chilled, there is little sign of a reversal in the slowdown of China's economy. All eyes are on what policies the Chinese government will hammer out to get its economy sizzling again.
　欧州危機の影響や、日中関係の冷え込みなどから、中国経済の減速に歯止めがかからない。中国政府の景気テコ入れ策が焦点になってきた。

China's gross domestic product slowed for a seventh straight quarter in the July to September period, growing 7.4 percent after inflation from a year earlier, according to preliminary government data. Growth for the July-September quarter fell below the government-set target of 7.5 percent for the full year.
　中国の２０１２年７～９月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の速報値は実質で前年同期比７・４％増となり、７四半期連続で減速した。政府が掲げてきた今年の成長目標７・５％を下回った。

Economists say 8 percent annual economic expansion is the "minimum requirement" for China to ensure its economic health and generate enough jobs for its workers. However, it is difficult to tell when China's falling growth will bottom out. Indications are that growth through 2012 will likely dip under 8 percent for the first time in 13 years.
　中国にとって、８％成長は経済や雇用を維持する「最低ライン」とされる。だが、景気底入れの見通しは立たず、１２年通年の成長率も１３年ぶりに８％を割る公算が大きくなったと言えよう。

The slowdown of China's economy, which has been a locomotive of the global economy as one of the world's key growth centers, must be closely watched because it could hurt the economies of Japan and other nations.
　成長センターとして世界経済を牽引(けんいん)してきた中国経済のもたつきで、日本などに悪影響が広がることを警戒しなければならない。

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Risk factors surging

China's downturn can be attributed mainly to falling exports to Europe, its biggest export market, where financial uncertainty has spread. Consequently, the output of China's export industries and related sectors has been sluggish.
　中国の景気減速は、最大の輸出相手である欧州の信用不安が拡大し、欧州向け輸出が不振だったことが主因だ。このため、輸出企業などの生産が停滞している。

The deterioration of ties between Tokyo and Beijing over the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture also has contributed to China's slowdown. Boycotts of Japanese-made products, including motor vehicles, spread across China, hitting sales of Japanese goods. In addition, personal consumption--an engine of China's growth--has been losing steam.
　沖縄県・尖閣諸島を巡って日中関係が悪化している影響もある。中国で自動車などの日本製品の不買運動が広がって販売が落ち込んだ。エンジン役である個人消費の勢いも鈍っている。

Due to the surge in such risk factors in China, many Japanese companies have decided to cut production there. Cracks have started to emerge in the production framework based on a division of labor in which Japan exports parts to China, where they are assembled into finished products.
　中国リスクの高まりで、多くの日本企業が中国での減産を決めた。日本から部品を輸出し、中国で完成品に組み立てるという分業体制にも支障が出始めている。

If these trends spread, in addition to the tepid production of Japanese firms in China, employment and income conditions of Chinese workers at Japanese factories and other places will deteriorate. This could spell even more bad news for China's economy.
　こうした動きが広がれば、生産低迷に加え、日系工場などで働く中国人の雇用や所得環境が悪化し、景気は一段と冷え込もう。

After Lehman Brothers collapsed four years ago, the Chinese government implemented a massive stimulus package that generated, albeit temporarily, a V-shaped recovery. The stimulus measures created several downsides, such as leading to a real estate bubble. As a result, Chinese authorities are reportedly circumspect about launching a similar large-scale package to deal with the latest slowdown.
　中国政府は４年前のリーマン・ショック後、大型景気対策でＶ字回復をいったん達成した。反面、不動産バブルなどの副作用を招いたため、当局は今回、同じような大型対策には慎重とされる。

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Boost Japan-China trade

Amid all this, China is in an unstable period as it prepares for a transition of power. Vice President Xi Jinping is set to take the helm of a new government in November. If the business slowdown cannot be halted, the very foundation of the government could be shaken.
　ただ、中国は来月、習近平国家副主席が最高指導部を率いる新体制に移行する不安定な時期にある。景気減速を食い止めないと、政府の基盤が揺らぎかねない。

Widening income disparities between urban and rural regions and increasing unemployment among young people have become serious social problems in China. Under these circumstances, maintaining China's stable growth could be the most urgent task for its leaders.
　都市と農村の経済格差や、若者の失業増大なども社会問題化している。安定成長を維持することが何よりも求められよう。

Specifically, front-loading and accelerating projects to improve infrastructure such as expressways, in tandem with steps to boost personal spending, will be indispensable.
　具体的には、すでに進めている高速道路などインフラ整備の前倒しを加速するとともに、個人消費の活性化策が欠かせない。

Additional monetary easing measures may be another option. We hope China promptly takes steps to lift its economic growth while preventing a reemergence of the bubble economy.
追加の金融緩和策も選択肢となる。成長とバブル再燃阻止を両にらみし、迅速に対応してもらいたい。

China needs to expand trade with Japan and encourage more investment by Japanese companies. Chinese authorities should change their hard-line policy toward Japan and quickly bring bilateral ties back to normal.
　日中貿易を拡大し、日本からの投資を呼び込むことが必要だ。中国当局は対日強硬姿勢を改め、関係正常化を急ぐべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 21, 2012)
（2012年10月21日01時30分  読売新聞）