エジプト大統領 イスラムと軍は共存できるか

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jun. 27, 2012)
Can an Islamist-led govt coexist with Egypt's military?
エジプト大統領　イスラムと軍は共存できるか（6月26日付・読売社説）

Mohammed Morsi, the candidate fielded by the Muslim Brotherhood, was declared the winner Sunday in the Egyptian presidential runoff election held earlier this month.
　エジプト大統領選で、イスラム主義組織「ムスリム同胞団」が擁立したモルシ氏が当選した。

Electing their own president in their first free election following the region's "Arab Spring" revolutionary democracy movements is a historic achievement for the people of Egypt, a great power in the Middle East and North Africa.
　中東・北アフリカ地域の大国エジプトの国民が「アラブの春」を経て、初めて自由選挙で大統領を選んだことは、歴史的な重みを持つ。

But it remains to be seen whether Egypt's democratization will prove successful. This is not only because there is no affinity between Islamism and democracy, but because the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the interim ruler of the country, may not relinquish power.
　だが、エジプトの民主化が成就するかどうかは依然、不透明だ。イスラム主義と民主主義に親和性がないだけではない。暫定統治にあたる軍最高評議会が、実権を手放そうとしていないからだ。

The extent to which Morsi will be able to advance democratization while avoiding confrontation with the military remains uncertain.
　モルシ氏が、軍との対立を回避し、どこまで民主化を進められるかについては、不安も大きい。

Morsi gained about 52 percent of the vote, just ahead of his rival, former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. The rise in the power of Islamism in the aftermath of the collapse of the former Egyptian regime led by Hosni Mubarak continued in the presidential election. But nearly half of Egyptians are still anxious about the Brotherhood.
　モルシ氏の得票率は約５２％で、対立候補のシャフィク元首相とは僅差の勝利だった。ムバラク前政権崩壊後のイスラム主義台頭の潮流は、大統領選でも変わらなかったが、国民の半数近くはなお同胞団への不安を持っている。

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Islamism vs secularism

After being declared the election winner, Morsi said, "I am a president for all Egyptians," thus emphasizing his stance of giving consideration to secular elements. He also said he has respect for the military.
　当選後、モルシ氏は「すべてのエジプト人のための大統領になる」と宣言して、世俗派に配慮する姿勢を強調した。「軍に敬意を持っている」とも述べた。

The statements apparently reflect his intention to overcome the nation's polarization into Islamism and secularism.
　「イスラム主義か、世俗主義か」という二極化を克服したい、という意向の表明だろう。

But the road to this goal will be a rocky one.
　だが、実現は茨(いばら)の道である。

In the first place, the SCAF has greatly restricted the authority of the president's office. In addition, Morsi's support base is weak.
　何より、大統領権限が軍最高評議会によって大きく制限されている。支えてくれる基盤も弱い。

The SCAF has dissolved the country's parliament, in which the Brotherhood was the dominant force. The SCAF has issued amendments to a "constitutional declaration" that is equivalent to a provisional constitution, thereby grabbing powers over legislation and the appointment of those who will draft a new national charter. This will make it possible for the SCAF to intervene in the process of formulating a new constitution.
　軍最高評議会は、同胞団系が最大勢力を占めた人民議会を解散した。暫定憲法に相当する憲法宣言の改正を発表し、立法権や憲法起草委員の任命権を握った。憲法制定過程に介入できる内容だ。

These developments will considerably delay a real transition to civilian control.
　実質的に民政移行を大幅に遅らせる動きである。

But it is to be noted that one factor behind the difficulty in creating a new constitution is that the Islamist forces themselves failed to smoothly select drafters of a charter in the parliament.
　ただ、新憲法制定の難航の一因は、イスラム主義勢力が、議会による起草委員会メンバーの円滑な選定に失敗したことがある。

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Mutual concessions vital

Whether Islamist forces and the military can make concessions to each other to work toward an early formulation of a new constitution is the key to progress in the country's democratization.
　新憲法の早期制定に向け、イスラム主義勢力と軍が歩み寄ることができるかどうかが、今後の民主化の進展を左右しよう。

The Egyptian economy is in dire straits. Last year's political upheaval directly impacted tourism, a major industry of the country, and led to a drop in foreign investment. The country's foreign exchange reserves dropped sharply. The military administration has been holding talks with the International Monetary Fund to obtain financial aid.
　エジプトの経済状況は深刻だ。昨年の政変による混乱は、主要産業である観光を直撃し、外国からの投資が冷え込んだ。外貨準備高も急減した。軍政は、支援を受けるため、国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）と協議を続けている。

If Egypt is to restore public safety and reconstruct its economy through international assistance, it is essential for the president-elect and the military to cooperate with each other.
　治安を回復し、国際的な支援を受け、経済を立て直すためにも、大統領と軍の協力は不可欠だ。

Islamist forces have been on the rise in Arab countries where long-ruling autocrats have been overthrown. Will democratization move ahead after all in Egypt? How the Morsi-led government will turn out is a crucial test for the future of the region.
　長期独裁政権が崩壊したアラブ諸国で、イスラム主義勢力の台頭が著しい。はたして民主化は進むのか。モルシ政権の今後は、地域の将来を占う重要な試金石だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 26, 2012)
（2012年6月26日01時26分 読売新聞）