エジプト情勢 イスラム伸長で進む「二極化」

The Yomiuri Shimbun (May. 31, 2012)
Egypt becomes polarized as Islamist forces gain clout
エジプト情勢　イスラム伸長で進む「二極化」（5月30日付・読売社説）

Islamist forces are gaining strength in Egypt. The direction of democratization in the entire Middle East will depend on whether a stable regime can be established in that country.
　エジプトでイスラム主義勢力が伸長している。安定したエジプト新体制を築けるかどうかは、中東全体の民主化の行方も左右するだろう。

No candidate won a decisive majority in the first round of Egypt's presidential election, according to results announced Monday. A runoff election will be held in mid-June.
　エジプト大統領選は、第１回投票で決着せず、６月中旬、決選投票が行われることになった。

The runoff will be contested by Mohammed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization, who placed first in the first round with about 25 percent of the vote, and former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, who was runner-up with about 24 percent.
　決選投票に臨むのは、得票率約２５％で１位となったイスラム主義組織「ムスリム同胞団」のモルシ候補と、約２４％で２位のシャフィク元首相である。

The contest represents a showdown between Islamist and secular candidates. Shafiq is a former military officer who emerged as a leader under the administration of ousted President Hosni Mubarak.
　イスラム主義の候補とムバラク前政権で頭角を現した軍出身の世俗派政治家が対決する構図だ。

The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties garnered more than 70 percent of the seats contested in lower house elections held from November to January, impressively cementing their emergence in Egypt's political landscape.
　ムスリム同胞団はじめイスラム主義勢力は、昨年１１月から今年１月まで行われた下院選で、全体の７割超の議席を取り、その台頭を強く印象付けた。

In the first round of the presidential election, Islamist forces won more than 40 percent of the vote, indicating they are major political players in the post-Mubarak era.
　今回の大統領選でも、４割を超す票を獲得して、「ポスト・ムバラク」時代の政治の主役であることを示したと言える。

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Fierce campaign ahead

Mursi, who was a latecomer to the presidential race, finished first after pulling in votes from another Islamist candidate who had a head start. The Brotherhood apparently used its organizational might to prevent the two candidates from draining votes from each other and both going down to defeat.
　立候補の名乗りが遅れたモルシ氏は、先行していたイスラム主義候補の票を取り込み１位を確保した。共倒れを避けようとする同胞団の組織力も働いたのだろう。

Shafiq finished close behind Mursi after attracting many votes with his campaign pledge to restore public safety. He also was a magnet for voters wary of the rapid emergence of the Islamist forces.
　シャフィク氏がモルシ氏とほぼ肩を並べたのは、公約で治安回復を強調したことが大きい。急速なイスラム主義台頭に警戒する有権者を引きつけた面もある。

The runoff election campaign is likely to become heated. We are concerned that Egypt could become polarized in a standoff between Islamism and secularism.
　選挙戦は過熱しそうだ。国論が「イスラム主義」と「世俗主義」という二極に分裂することが、懸念される。

Disturbingly, Shafiq's campaign office was set on fire Monday night, hours after the election results were announced.
　早くもシャフィク氏の選挙事務所が放火される騒ぎが起きた。

A lower court ruling on Mubarak is scheduled to be announced this weekend. Prosecutors have demanded capital punishment for the former president, who was charged with issuing an order to fire at antigovernment protesters. The court's ruling will likely affect the election campaign.
　今週末には、ムバラク前大統領への１審判決も予定されている。前大統領は、反体制デモ参加者への発砲命令が罪に問われ、死刑を求刑されており、その判決は、選挙戦にも影響を与えよう。

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Gearing up for post-Mubarak era

With the growing emergence of Islamist forces in mind, the U.S. government has started building communication channels with the Muslim Brotherhood as it looks to a post-Mubarak Egypt.
　イスラム主義の台頭を念頭に、米国政府は「ポスト・ムバラク」をにらみ、同胞団とのパイプ作りに乗り出した。

Change will be unavoidable in Egypt. But as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pointed out, this change should not lead to the erosion of the rights of women and minority religious groups.
　エジプトの変化は避けられないが、クリントン国務長官が指摘したように、それが、女性や宗教少数派の権利の後退につながるようなことがあってはなるまい。

After a president is elected in the runoff, the interim rule by Egypt's Supreme Military Council is scheduled to end and power will be transferred to civilian control.
　決選投票で大統領が決まれば、軍最高評議会による暫定統治は終わり、民政に移行する予定だ。

However, if polarization becomes more deeply entrenched, uncertainty will increase over whether the power transfer will proceed as expected. The biggest variable is how the military, which wields the real power, will react.
　だが、二極化がさらに進めば、そのシナリオ通りにいくのかどうか不透明感も増そう。最大の問題は、実権を握る軍の出方だ。

The international community--including Japan--is closely watching how Egypt, a regional power, will achieve stability and help bring democratization in the Middle East and North Africa.
　大国エジプトが、中東・北アフリカ地域の安定と民主化の進展を牽引(けんいん)していく役割を日本を含めた国際社会は注視している。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 30, 2012)
（2012年5月30日01時40分 読売新聞）