金正日総書記死去―混乱回避へ各国は協調を

--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 20
EDITORIAL: Cooperation needed to prevent chaos in Pyongyang
金正日総書記死去―混乱回避へ各国は協調を

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has died.
　金正日総書記が死去した。

Under Kim's rule, North Korea developed nuclear weapons, ignoring international rules. Its economy is in tatters, with people suffering from acute food shortages. The country also abducted many Japanese citizens and still repeatedly violates human rights. Its government strictly controls the information made available to the public.
　世界のルールを無視して核を開発する。経済は苦境にあり、食糧も足りない。日本人を拉致し、人権侵害を繰り返す。国民への情報は厳しく統制する。

Kim was a dictator who held absolute power in this outlandish and outrageous country.
　そんな異様な国、北朝鮮ですべての権力を握っていた独裁者だった。

It is still unclear how the transition of power will play out in the secluded nation. But there is no doubt that Kim's death offers an opportunity for North Korea to change itself dramatically. At the same time, however, it creates a precarious situation that could throw the nation into serious turmoil.
　後継体制がどう動き出すのかは、まだわからない。だが、北朝鮮そのものが大きく変わり得る機会であるとともに、国内が一気に動揺する恐れもある事態であることは確かだ。

There have been no signs of unsettling developments in the country, at least so far.
　今のところ、不穏な動きは見えないようだが、

But South Korea and the United States have put their armed forces on emergency alert. Japan and other countries concerned should work in close cooperation in dealing with any situation that may arise following the dictator's death.
韓国は米軍とともに非常警戒態勢に入った。日本をはじめ関係国は、緊密な連携を図らねばならない。

It seems that Kim died suddenly. According to local media, he suffered a heart attack on a special train as he was traveling to the country during an "on-site guidance" tour, a practice that was introduced by his father, Kim Il Sung, who founded the country after the end of World War II.
　急死だったようだ。父の金日成主席をまねた「現地指導」と呼ばれる地方視察に向かう特別列車内で、心筋梗塞（こうそく）を起こしたという。

Three generations of hereditary rule
■異様な３代世襲

Kim was long one of the world's most enigmatic leaders.
　世界で長く「謎の多い指導者」の筆頭格だった。

He was chosen as the successor to his father in a secret meeting of the Korean Worker's Party in 1974 and appeared in public for the first time in the party convention in 1980.
　１９７４年の朝鮮労働党の秘密会で後継者に決まり、８０年の党大会で初めて公に姿を現した。

Kim solidified his grip on power by taking advantage of his father's powerful backing and established a dictatorship based on a personality cult like that of a feudal dynasty.
父の威を借りて権力を掌握していき、個人崇拝の封建王朝のような独裁を敷いた。

Kim drastically changed his image as a leader who remains behind the scenes through a series of high-profile diplomatic actions he started taking in 2000.
　「表に出ない指導者」像を一変させたのが、２０００年からの一連の首脳外交だった。

As a starter, he met with then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung in the first summit between the leaders of the two Koreas. His spirited exchanges were televised and immediately earned the North Korean leader a reputation as a person well informed about international affairs. Kim Jong Il also met with the leaders of both China and Russia, as well as a U.S. Secretary of State. He held talks with then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi twice.
　韓国の金大中大統領と初の南北首脳会談を持ち、画面に流れる丁々発止のやり取りから、一躍、世界情勢に通じた人物とされた。中国やロシアの首脳、米国務長官とも会い、小泉首相とは２回会談した。

Kim's diplomacy was described as "brinkmanship diplomacy" or "saber-rattling diplomacy" because he used his nuclear and missile programs as leverage to extract concessions from other countries.
　外交はもっぱら、核兵器開発やミサイルを武器にした危うい手法で、「瀬戸際外交」「恫喝（どうかつ）外交」とも言われた。

Kim also started diplomatic efforts to build a formal relationship with the United States and revive his country's dilapidated economy as a way to maintain his autocratic regime. But he died before achieving the goals.
　みずからの体制護持を目的とした、米国との関係構築と経済再生は、道半ばに終わった。

His third son, Kim Jong Un, has been groomed as his anointed successor.
　後継の指導者に三男の金正恩氏が座ることは既定路線だ。

The younger Kim may not assume the official leadership posts held by his father until after the period of national mourning expires.
　正式な後継ポスト就任は、まだ先の喪明けになるかもしれない。

But the dictator's son is likely to attain supreme power as a third-generation hereditary ruler--a striking anomaly in a country that claims to stand for socialist principles.
だが、社会主義を標榜（ひょうぼう）する国で、特異すぎる３代世襲が実現しそうだ。

The process of the transition of power to Kim Jong Un, who has yet to turn 30, began only three years ago when his father suffered a stroke.
　まだ３０歳前の金正恩氏は、３年前に父が脳卒中で倒れてから後継体制づくりが本格化したばかりだ。

In stark contrast, Kim Jong Il had some 20 years to solidify his position as the successor to his father.
約２０年間かけて先々代から権力を着実に引き継いだ先代とは事情が違う。

It is probably reasonable to assume that the nation will be under de facto collective leadership for the time being. A group of close aides will support the younger Kim's rule behind the scenes while ensuring that the new leader will stand at center stage.
　おそらく、金正恩氏を表舞台で立てつつ、側近陣が支える事実上の集団指導で進むと考えるのが自然だろう。

We cannot, of course, tolerate North Korea's nuclear tests and test-firing of ballistic missiles. We also cannot overlook Pyongyang's attempt to intimidate the international community by suddenly launching an artillery attack on a neighboring country. We are opposed to the country's system of keeping a close watch on citizens and sending anyone it doesn't like to dreadful concentration camps.
　もちろん、私たちは核実験や弾道ミサイルの発射実験をする姿勢は許せない。いきなり隣国に砲撃を加えて国際社会を威嚇することも看過できない。住民を監視し、過酷な収容所に送るような体制にも反対だ。

Road map to get rid of North Korea's nukes
■核廃棄の道筋を

The demise of the dictator should not be allowed to unsettle North Korea and destabilize surrounding areas.
　独裁者の喪失で北朝鮮が動揺し、周辺が不安定になってもいけない。

Is it possible that Kim's death will trigger a fierce power struggle within the military or among the party elite during the period of transition?
　後継体制への移行期に、軍や党のエリート内で金総書記死去を機に権力争いが激しくならないか。

It has long been assumed that North Koreans, despite their deep anger and resentment over their destitution and the regime's tight control on their lives, are unable to organize themselves because of close mutual surveillance. But is it possible now that people in the country will put up organized resistance against the regime and flee the country as refugees in droves?
困窮と規制に不満を募らせつつも、厳しい相互監視のために組織化できないとされてきた住民たちが抵抗し、難民として大挙して流出するような事態に陥らないか。

Such confusion must be averted at any cost.
　こうした混乱は何としても避けねばならない。

The big question now is whether North Korea will make serious efforts to improve its relations with neighboring countries in order to attain economic and social stability at home.
　そのうえで、北朝鮮が経済と社会の安定を図って、周辺国との関係改善に、真摯（しんし）に臨むのかどうか。それが当面の大きな課題になる。

To tackle the formidable challenges it is facing, North Korea needs to shift its foreign policy toward cooperation with other countries and change itself into a country that respects international rules and follows common sense.
　課題を解くには、まず北朝鮮が対外協調にかじを切り替え、「常識の通ずる国」に変わらなければならない。

The international community has an important role to play in leading Pyongyang in the right direction. In dealing with this erratic nation, other countries should put the priority on ensuring that the nuclear materials produced and stockpiled by the regime will be strictly controlled to prevent their proliferation.
　同時に、国際社会の役割も大きい。北朝鮮が開発し貯（た）めている核物質を厳重に管理し、拡散させないことを最優先に対応すべきだ。

First of all, the six-party talks that have mapped out a plan for North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions should be put back on track. Then, concrete steps should be taken according to the plan.
　まずは、核放棄の道筋を描いた６者協議を再び軌道に乗せる。そして実際の行動を積み重ねていくことだ。

The issue of North Korea's development of nuclear weapons has gained more urgency as the country has admitted to enriching uranium.
　北朝鮮の核問題は、ウラン濃縮が新たに加わって、危機がより高まっている。

Kim Jong Il died just when the United States and North Korea were beginning to take the first step toward breaking the current impasse. But this window of opportunity should be taken to resume talks over Pyongyang's nuclear ambition.
米国と北朝鮮が状況を動かす端緒をつかみかけた段階での総書記死去だったが、核協議の再開へつなげていく必要がある。

Solving the abduction issue
■拉致解決の糸口探れ

Cooperation among the countries concerned is crucial for preventing confusion in North Korea.
　北朝鮮の混乱回避にも、関係国の協調が欠かせない。

China is North Korea's largest ally, while the United States holds the key to the country's national security.
　中国は北朝鮮の最大の後ろ盾であり、米国は北朝鮮の安全保障の鍵を握っている。

Russia is raising its economic profile in the Far East, while South Korea, which is pursuing a vision of future unification of the Korean Peninsula, is directly affected by what is happening in the North. All the countries concerned should work together in dealing with North Korea through a combination of pressure and dialogue.
　ロシアは経済的にも極東で存在感を強め、韓国は朝鮮半島の将来的な統一も視野に入れた当事者だ。各国が歩調を合わせて、圧力と対話を組み合わせ、北朝鮮と向き合うことだ。

Japan, also a victim of Pyongyang's abduction of foreign nationals, has a direct interest in peace and stability in the region.
　日本ももちろん、この地域の平和と安定に直接かかわる。そして拉致の被害者でもある。

North Korea has made no serious effort to honor its promise three years ago to carry out a fresh investigation on the fate of Japanese citizens it abducted decades ago. There has been no progress either in the talks between Tokyo and Pyongyang toward establishing a formal diplomatic relationship.
　北朝鮮が３年前に約束した拉致被害者の再調査も、国交正常化に向けた日朝協議も全く進んでいない。

Japan should develop a new strategy to find a way to make real progress toward a solution of the abduction issue.
総書記の死去を契機に、拉致問題の進展を図る糸口をつかむ戦略を立てなければならない。

Japan needs to prepare itself to make flexible and bold responses to any significant changes that might happen in North Korea.
　北朝鮮の変化に、柔軟かつ大胆に動く備えと知恵が必要だ。