ロシア次期政権 不安も伴うプーチン氏再登板

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Sep. 29, 2011)
Putin's expected return to Kremlin worrisome
ロシア次期政権　不安も伴うプーチン氏再登板（9月28日付・読売社説）

At a recent congress of the ruling United Russia party, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin expressed his intention to run in the presidential election to be held next March.
　ロシアのプーチン首相が、政権与党「統一ロシア」の党大会で、来年３月の大統領選に出馬する意向を表明した。

Putin served as president for two terms spanning eight years until 2008. If he regains the presidency, he likely will hold the reigns of power for an exceptionally long time.
　プーチン氏は、２００８年まで２期８年間、大統領を務めていた。返り咲けば、異例の長期政権となろう。

Incumbent President Dmitry Medvedev will reportedly become prime minister.
　現大統領のメドベージェフ氏は今度は首相になるという。

This transfer of power, widely believed to be based on an agreement the two made earlier, is hard to understand.
「以前からの２人の合意」に基づくとされるが、理解しがたい権力の座の交換である。

Medvedev has called for the need to establish judicial independence and promote economic reforms, including the development of cutting-edge industries.
　メドべージェフ大統領は、司法の独立や、先端産業の育成など経済改革の必要性を訴えてきた。

However, he has not achieved these goals.
その成果はまだ上がっていない。

His expected exit from office likely will disappoint reform-minded intellectuals who had hoped he would stay on as president.
大統領の続投に期待した改革派知識人は、失望しているだろう。

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Resurgence of tight rule?

There are concerns over the new administration's style of governance.
　懸念されるのは、次期政権の統治手法である。

While Putin was president, he strengthened law and order and achieved economic growth, successfully ending the chaos inherited from the previous administration of President Boris Yeltsin, under whom Russia's gross domestic product declined continuously.
　プーチン氏は大統領時代、強力な治安体制を敷くとともに、経済成長を達成して、国内総生産が低下の一途をたどったエリツィン政権時代の混乱を収拾することに成功した。

This is a factor behind Putin's relatively high popularity among Russian people.
国民の間で今も比較的高い人気を誇る所以(ゆえん)だ。

On the other side of the coin, Putin put principal industries under state control and placed his right-hand men as executives at key corporations.
　一方で、主要産業を国家管理下に置いて経営陣に腹心を送り込んだ。

He had no qualms about shutting down businesses that did not operate as he wished by resorting to extralegal means.
意に沿わない企業を超法規的に潰すこともいとわなかった。

Media organizations were strictly controlled, and a reporter who wrote antigovernment articles was shot dead.
　メディアは統制され、反政府的な記事を書く記者が射殺される事件も起きた。

Rule over minority ethnic groups in the North Caucasus region was tightened.
北カフカスの少数民族に対する支配も強化された。

If Putin merely adheres to similar governance methods after returning to office, he will not be able to resolve the knotty issues facing Russian society.
　大統領に復帰後、同様の手法を踏襲するだけでは、ロシア社会が直面する難題は解決できまい。

As for the crucial issue of the economy, Russia has not broken free from its reliance on natural gas and other resources.
　肝心の経済は、天然ガスなど資源に依存する体質から抜け出せていない。

The sudden dismissal recently of the country's reformist deputy prime minister, who had called for fiscal discipline, has created uncertainty about the future.
財政規律を重視する改革派の副首相が突然解任されたことも、前途に不安を残す。

An increasing number of Russian people are reportedly thinking about getting out of the country.
　最近は、国外脱出を考える国民が増えているという。

The new administration will get bogged down sooner or later if it fails to promote democratization and economic structural reform.
民主化や経済の構造改革なしには、政権はいずれ行き詰まるだろう。

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Territorial issue still pending

Japan, for its part, will be watching closely to see whether Putin's return to the Kremlin will help find a resolution to the territorial dispute with Russia.
　日本としては、プーチン氏の大統領復帰で北方領土問題が動き出すのかを、注視したい。

Last November, Medvedev visited Kunashiri, one of four disputed islands off Hokkaido, becoming the first Russian or Soviet head to do so.
　昨年１１月、メドベージェフ大統領は、ソ連時代を含めロシアの国家元首としては初めて、北方領土の国後島を訪れている。

His visit, timed to take advantage of the disarray embroiling the Democratic Party of Japan-led government, poured cold water on Japan's demands that the four northern territories be returned.
日本の民主党政権の混迷につけいる形で、４島返還要求に冷水を浴びせる動きだった。

Putin has gone no further than admitting the validity of the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration of 1956, which pledged "the return of Habomai and Shikotan islands to Japan after the conclusion of a peace treaty."
　プーチン氏も、「平和条約締結後に、歯舞、色丹の２島を日本に引き渡す」とした１９５６年の日ソ共同宣言の有効性を認める立場にとどまっている。

But some observers point out that Putin could begin to attach greater weight to Russia's ties with Tokyo as a check against China's rise.
ただ、台頭する中国への牽制(けんせい)から、対日関係を重視する、との見方もある。

Japan must develop strategic diplomacy vis-a-vis Moscow to advance negotiations on the territorial dispute.
　交渉を前進させるための戦略的な対露外交を構築すべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 28, 2011)
（2011年9月28日01時31分 読売新聞）