景況感プラス 円高・株安への警戒を怠るな

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jul. 3, 2010)
Stay vigilant against yen's rise, stock falls
景況感プラス　円高・株安への警戒を怠るな（7月2日付・読売社説）

Although corporate sentiment about business conditions seems to be improving, evidence the economy has regained its vigor remains sketchy at best.
　企業の景気認識は改善しているようだが、日本経済が元気になったという手応えがない。

Stock prices have tumbled, the yen has appreciated again, and the nation is still unable to shake off deflation.
　デフレから脱出できないまま、再び株価下落や円高が進んでいるからだ。

The campaign for the July 11 House of Councillors election is well under way. Each party has pledged to attain high economic growth.
　参院選で各党は、高成長の実現を公約に掲げている。

However, rather than competing over who can set the highest target, the parties should focus more on how realistic their measures for achieving these goals are.
だが、競うべきなのは、目標の高さではなく達成への具体策だ。

The first task for the government after the election is to put the economy on track for a full recovery. We hope political parties will engage in reasoned debate on this issue.
それにはまず景気を本格回復させることが先決である。説得力のある経済論議を展開してほしい。

The Bank of Japan announced Thursday its Tankan short-term economic survey of enterprises for June. The diffusion index for business confidence among corporations greatly improved. The index now stands at plus 1 among major manufacturers, a vast improvement from minus 14 logged in March. The index has entered positive territory for the first time in two years. It is the fifth straight quarterly improvement, and the index is now almost at the same level as it was just before the so-called Lehman shock of 2008.
　日銀が１日に発表した６月の企業短期経済観測調査（短観）は、企業の景気認識を示す業況判断指数が大幅に改善し、大企業の製造業でプラス１となった。
　プラスへの浮上は２年ぶりである。５四半期連続の改善で、リーマン・ショックの直前とほぼ同じ水準に戻した。

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Recovery seems steady

The improved performance of exporting companies led the uptick. In addition, major nonmanufacturers, as well as small and midsize manufacturers and nonmanufacturers, also stayed on their recovery path.
　輸出関連企業の業績回復が先導したが、大企業の非製造業や、中小企業の製造業、非製造業も改善を維持している。

Capital investment--which holds the key to a full-scale recovery--for this fiscal year also finally turned positive for major companies. We can safely say the improvement is spreading to the wider economy.
　本格成長のカギをにぎる今年度の設備投資計画も、ようやくプラスに転じた。景気回復のすそ野は広がってきたと見ていい。

Despite the favorable Tankan figures, the Nikkei Stock Average fell for the second straight day to close at a fresh low for the year. Uncertainty over the strength of the global economy remains and market players seem to be on tenterhooks over the yen's appreciation.
　だが、短観の好調さをよそに、東京市場の平均株価はこの日、今年の最安値を更新した。海外経済の変調と、円高に対する警戒感が強まってきたためだ。

In the United States and Europe, worries linger over aggravated fiscal deterioration and the economic downturn caused by the Greek debt crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average at the New York Stock Exchange has been on a downward spiral and dipped below 10,000 this week.
　欧米では、ギリシャ危機に始まった財政悪化や景気減速の懸念がくすぶっている。ニューヨーク市場の平均株価は下げが続き、今週は１万ドルの大台を割り込んだ。

A downturn in overseas markets increases pressure on the yen to appreciate, which in turn causes stocks in Japan to plunge. This vicious circle has apparently taken root.
　海外市況の悪化で円高圧力が高まり、円高が日本の株安を招く悪循環もはっきりしてきた。

Many companies forecast the exchange rate this fiscal year will hover around 90 yen to the dollar. However, the yen this week appreciated to the 88 yen level against the greenback. If the yen rises further, it will knock the stuffing out of export-related businesses that are showing signs of slowing growth.
　企業の多くは、今年度の為替相場を１ドル＝９０円程度と想定している。８８円台に進んだ円高がさらに加速すれば、伸び悩みの兆候もある輸出に打撃となるだろう。

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What's the reality?

The Tankan also showed the bearish sentiment of companies that are not confident the recovery will be sustainable. The diffusion index for automobile companies in the major business category improved greatly, but they forecast a major decline three months down the road. Their sentiment stems partially from the fading effects of government measures to support domestic vehicle sales, such as tax breaks for purchases of eco-cars.
　短観には、回復の持続に自信を持てない企業の弱気も見える。大企業の自動車は今回、業況が大きく改善したが、３か月後は大幅な低下を予想している。エコカー減税など国内販売の支援策の効果が薄れてきた影響もありそうだ。

As about 70 percent to 80 percent of companies surveyed for the Tankan submitted their responses to the Bank of Japan by or in early June, the report does not fully incorporate recent worrying developments such as the yen's appreciation and fall in stock prices. All observers will be carefully watching to see if actual business sentiment is more pessimistic than the Tankan indicated.
　短観は６月上旬までに７～８割の企業が回答を済ませており、最近の円高・株安を十分に織り込んでいない問題もある。実際の企業心理は短観より冷えていないか、注意深く見ねばならない。

Including the Democratic Party of Japan, which advocates building a "strong economy" as a central campaign pledge, each political party has promised annual economic growth ranging from 3 percent to 5 percent. We welcome the trend of putting priority on economic growth. However, before anything else, the parties must present prescriptions that will unfailingly bring about an economic recovery and departure from deflation.
　「強い経済」を掲げる民主党をはじめ、各党の選挙公約は３～５％の高成長を約束している。成長重視は歓迎だが、最優先で示すべきなのは、景気回復とデフレ脱却を着実に果たす処方箋(せん)である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 2, 2010)
（2010年7月2日00時56分 読売新聞）