成長と財政再建 Ｇ２０で首相が負った重い宿題

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jul. 1, 2010)
G-20 meet leaves Kan with a difficult task
成長と財政再建　Ｇ２０で首相が負った重い宿題（6月30日付・読売社説）

Industrialized countries and emerging economies alike have been shouldered with the two difficult tasks of maintaining economic growth while steadily promoting fiscal reconstruction.
　経済成長を維持しながら財政再建も着実に進める――。先進国と新興国がそれぞれ背負わされた難題である。

The key point of the joint declaration adopted by leaders of the Group of 20 major developed and emerging countries in their meeting in Toronto was their agreement on carrying out "growth-friendly fiscal consolidation."
　カナダ・トロントで開かれた世界２０か国・地域（Ｇ２０）首脳会議（サミット）が採択した首脳宣言のポイントは、「成長に配慮した財政健全化」を打ち出したことだ。

At the meeting, Prime Minister Naoto Kan explained Japan's new economic growth and fiscal management strategies, which were worked out shortly before the summit meeting, effectively making the strategies international pledges.
　菅首相は、首脳会議の直前にまとめた新経済成長戦略と財政運営戦略を説明し、この二つの戦略が事実上の国際公約になった。

This means that Japan will have to simultaneously pursue two goals--playing a leading role in the world economy by achieving sustainable growth and realizing fiscal reconstruction that will be recognized by the market.
　日本も、持続的成長で世界経済の牽引(けんいん)役を果たしつつ、市場に評価される財政再建を実現するという、二兎(にと)を同時に追わざるを得なくなった。

Starting now, Kan's competence in economic management will be put to the test.
　菅首相の経済運営の手腕が、今後、問われることになろう。

The global economy at present is poised to leave behind the worldwide recession that began with the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers. However, the fiscal turmoil in Greece is slowing down a weakened Europe, leaving the global economy's future prospects uncertain.
　現在の世界経済は、リーマン・ショック後の金融危機と同時不況を脱しつつある。しかし、ギリシャ危機で欧州経済がもたつき、先行きはまだ不透明だ。

The G-20 statement was correct in pointing out the need to "follow through on fiscal stimulus plans," based on such assessments.
　こうした判断から、首脳宣言が「景気刺激策の継続が必要」と指摘したのは当然である。

===

Calls for debt reduction

The statement, on the other hand, stressed the need for countries burdened with heavy public debts to accelerate efforts to shore up their fiscal condition.
　一方で、宣言は、「深刻な財政赤字国は、財政健全化を加速する必要がある」とも強調した。

It was particularly significant that the statement presented numerical targets, saying "advanced economies have committed to at least halve deficits by 2013." However, the leaders took the extraordinary step of agreeing to treat Japan, which has by far the largest outstanding debt among industrialized countries, as an exception.
　特に、「先進国は２０１３年までに財政赤字を少なくとも半減させる」などと、数値目標を明示した意義は大きい。ただ、財政悪化が最も深刻な日本は異例の「例外扱い」となった。

The G-20 meeting witnessed a sharp rift between European countries, which put priority on fiscal reconstruction, and the United States, which attaches importance to economic growth.
　Ｇ２０では、財政再建を優先する欧州と、景気重視の米国が対立した。

However, if countries adopt belt-tightening policies all at once, the risk of an economic slowdown will increase. For this reason, European nations and the United States are believed to have reached a compromise, saying "measures need to be put into action at the national level and tailored to individual countries' conditions" to restore their public finances.
だが、一斉に緊縮財政に走れば景気失速のリスクが高まる。このため欧米は妥協を図り、各国の状況に応じ財政立て直しを求めることで収拾したのだろう。

===

A tight spot for Japan

But the decision has put Japan in a bind. Japan was left out of the fiscal reconstruction goals for Europe and the United States while at the same time it was subjected to calls to further expand its domestic demand as an economy with a current account surplus.
　これで難しい立場に追い込まれたのが日本だ。欧米の財政再建目標から置き去りにされたうえ、経常黒字国として、さらなる内需拡大も要求されたからだ。

The upcoming House of Councillors election will be followed by discussions for the compilation of the fiscal 2011 budget. The government must expedite efforts to flesh out the so-called Kan strategy, which aims at realizing growth and tax hikes at the same time.
　参院選後は来年度予算編成に向けた議論が始まる。増税しながら成長を実現するという「菅戦略」の肉付けを急がねばならない。

The revaluation of the Chinese yuan was another key item on the G-20 agenda. Though the declaration did not single out the yuan by name and simply called for greater exchange rate flexibility in some emerging markets, China is certain to be asked to approve the yuan's rise against other currencies.
　Ｇ２０では、中国通貨・人民元の切り上げも重要テーマだった。宣言は人民元を名指しせず、「為替レートの柔軟性」を指摘したが、中国が今後、人民元の上昇容認を迫られるのは確実だ。

The G-20 summit meeting once again exposed the difficulty of putting together opinions on themes about which participating countries have sharply conflicting interests.
　今回のＧ２０サミットでも、利害が鋭く対立するテーマでは、意見集約する難しさが改めて浮き彫りになった。

Japan should draw up clear strategies on how to make effective use of the Group of Eight and the G-20 meetings.
　主要８か国（Ｇ８）と、Ｇ２０をどう使い分けていくか。日本は明確な戦略を練らねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 30, 2010)
（2010年6月30日01時57分 読売新聞）