米ゼロ金利解除 「出口」迎えた異例の危機対応

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Fed’s decision to increase rate ends unprecedented crisis response
米ゼロ金利解除　「出口」迎えた異例の危機対応

The United States has put an end to the situation in which monetary easing on an unprecedented scale was used to deal with the extraordinary financial crisis triggered by the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.
　リーマン・ショックに端を発した未曽有の金融危機に、米国が空前の大規模緩和で対処する事態に終止符が打たれた。

We welcome the fact that the United States, the epicenter of the global financial crunch, has successfully met the challenge of reinvigorating its economy, to the point of being able to return to ordinary financial policy.
　危機の震源地である米国が、金融政策を平時の状態に戻せるまで、経済再生を果たしたことを歓迎したい。

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided on its first interest rate increase in 9½ years. Lifting the effectively zero-interest rate policy that was in place from the end of 2008, the Fed increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent per year from between zero and 0.25 percent.
　米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、９年半ぶりの利上げを決めた。政策金利の誘導目標を年０～０・２５％から年０・２５～０・５０％に上げ、２００８年末から続く事実上のゼロ金利政策を解除した。

The expansionary phase of the U.S. economy has been continuing for a little more than six years so far, while the unemployment rate has shrunk to a pre-crisis level. Given the prospects for stability in the U.S. labor market and moderate price rises in the future, it is reasonable for the United States to break off the extraordinary monetary easing.
　米国の景気拡大局面は６年強に及び、失業率は危機前の水準に戻った。雇用安定や緩やかな物価上昇も見込める以上、異例の金融緩和を打ち切るのは妥当である。

Emerging economies have served as locomotives for the global economy since the crash, as plenty of funds flowed into them as a result of the easy money policies in Japan, the United States and Europe. Due caution should be exercised about the possibility of the U.S. interest rate raise causing a major transformation of this paradigm.
　危機後の世界経済は、日米欧の金融緩和で潤沢な資金が流入した新興国が牽引けんいんしてきた。米国の利上げによって、この構図が大きく転換することに注意が必要だ。

There can be no doubt that the world’s investment funds will lean toward fund management in dollars, expecting higher interest rates. Fears are being noted that the “monetary easing cash” that has flowed into emerging economies will flow backward in large quantities into the United States.
　世界の投資資金が、金利上昇を期待できるドルでの運用に傾くのは確実である。新興国に流れていた「緩和マネー」が、大量に米国へ逆流する恐れが指摘される。

Vigilance may be required against the risk of currencies and stock prices plunging precipitously in emerging economies, gravely shaking markets worldwide.
　新興国の通貨や株価が急落し、市場に深刻な動揺を招くリスクを十分警戒せねばなるまい。

Dialogue with markets

The continuing drops in crude oil prices are also a matter of concern. Because the finances of oil-producing countries have been increasingly severe, they have been withdrawing oil money from the markets. Should this outflow be coupled with the back-streaming of funds into the United States from emerging economies, the danger of turmoil in the world’s economy could arise.
　原油価格の下落も懸念材料だ。産油国の財政逼迫ひっぱくでオイルマネーが市場から引き揚げられている。緩和マネーの逆流が重なれば、混乱に拍車がかかりかねない。

Markets have mostly reacted favorably to the higher U.S. interest rate policy, as shown by sharp rises in stock prices both in Japan and the United States right after the Fed decision.
　ＦＲＢの決定の直後、日米の株価が大幅に上昇するなど、市場は利上げをおおむね好感した。

While many investors had factored in the U.S. lifting of the zero-interest rate policy in advance, the statement made by Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggesting future hikes will be coming slowly has also had a favorable impact.
　投資家の多くが事前にゼロ金利解除を織り込んでいたうえ、ＦＲＢのイエレン議長が、今後の利上げを緩やかなペースで進める考えを表明したのも奏功した。

There is no justification for being unprepared for future developments in “exit strategies” out of the monetary easing.
　だが、金融緩和の「出口戦略」の今後に、油断は禁物である。

The Fed should be as prudent as possible in steering its monetary policy. By engaging again and again in circumspect dialogues with the markets, it is imperative for the Fed to have the direction of its financial policy gradually spread through market players.
　ＦＲＢには、繊細な舵かじ取りが求められる。「市場との対話」を慎重に重ねて、金融政策の方向性を市場関係者に徐々に浸透させることが欠かせない。

It is important for emerging economies to redouble their efforts to enhance their attractiveness as investment destinations, to ensure that no excessive outflow of funds takes place. We hope to see them accelerate steps for structural reform, such as easing regulations to encourage the entry of capital from overseas.
　新興国側も、過度な資金流出が起きないよう、投資先としての魅力を高める努力が大切になる。外資の参入を促す規制緩和など構造改革を加速してもらいたい。

Regarding the effect the U.S. interest rate hike will have on Japan, Akira Amari, state minister in charge of economic revitalization, has stressed that higher U.S. rates “will be a plus for the Japanese economy in the medium to long term.” Further weakening of the yen and strengthening of the dollar are expected, boosting increases in Japan’s exports.
　甘利経済再生相は、利上げの日本への影響について「中長期的にプラスだ」と強調した。円安・ドル高が進み、輸出にさらに勢いがつく効果が期待できよう。

However, we cannot take our eyes off the danger of excessive depreciation of the yen causing import prices to increase so much they adversely affect businesses. The government must be sure to steadily put the economic growth policy into force, wasting no time in bringing about a self-sustained business recovery led by domestic demand.
　ただ、過度な円安が輸入物価を高騰させ、景気が悪化する危険性からも目が離せない。成長戦略を着実に実行し、内需主導の自律的な景気回復を急ぐべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 18, 2015)Speech