南北高官協議 衝突の回避へ冷静に歩み寄れ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
North, South Koreas must work toward concessions to avert armed conflict
南北高官協議　衝突の回避へ冷静に歩み寄れ

Escalating tensions through military provocations while seeking to win concessions through dialogue — North Korea should avoid this dangerous brinkmanship and practice self-restraint.
　軍事的挑発で緊張を高めつつ、対話で譲歩を引き出すことを狙う――。北朝鮮は、危険な瀬戸際戦術を自制すべきだ。

Given the heightening of military tensions between South and North Korea, representatives from the two countries entered into negotiations Saturday at the Panmunjom.
　韓国と北朝鮮の軍事的緊張の高まりを受けて、南北高官協議が板門店で開催された。

The South was lead by chief of the National Security Office of South Korea, and the North was lead by Hwang Pyong So, director of the General Political Bureau of the North Korean People’s Army. The exceptionally high-level bilateral talks were held on and off for three consecutive days. But the two sides are having difficultly reaching any kind of compromise.
　韓国は金寛鎮大統領府国家安保室長らが、北朝鮮は金正恩第１書記の側近の黄炳瑞・朝鮮人民軍総政治局長らが出席した。異例の高いレベルの対話は３日連続で行われたが、難航している。

To avoid the worst-case scenario of an armed conflict, we want the two sides to make an earnest effort to reach mutual concessions and find concrete measures to ease tensions.
　軍事衝突という最悪の事態を避けるため、双方は、積極的に歩み寄り、緊張緩和の具体的な措置を探ることが求められる。

Tensions were triggered after two South Korean soldiers were seriously injured when land mines, believed to have been laid by North Korea, exploded on Aug. 4 near the military demarcation line.
　緊張の発端は、４日に軍事境界線付近で、北朝鮮が設置したとみられる地雷が爆発し、韓国軍兵士２人が重傷を負ったことだ。

Seoul criticized Pyongyang for violating the Korean Armistice Agreement, and in response resumed anti-North Korea loudspeaker broadcasts for the first time in 11 years.
　韓国側は、休戦協定違反だと北朝鮮を非難した。対抗措置として、北朝鮮体制を批判する拡声機の宣伝放送を１１年ぶりに再開した。

The North demanded a halt to the broadcasts and fired artillery shells into South Korean territory. Pyongyang proposed negotiations with Seoul while at the same time threatening to take further military action. North Korea has been alternating between a hard-line or moderate attitude to rattle the Park Guen-hye administration, which took retaliatory measures.
　北朝鮮は、放送中止を要求し、韓国内に砲撃した。さらなる軍事行動を予告したうえ、韓国側に協議を申し入れた。北朝鮮に応戦した韓国の朴槿恵政権に対する硬軟両様の揺さぶりである。

North Korea’s international isolation is regarded as a factor behind its latest provocative action. Its relations with China, historically the most friendly nation to the North, soured after Pyongyang carried out nuclear tests in defiance of international protests. Exchanges of leaders between the two communist countries have been suspended.
　この背景には、北朝鮮の国際的な孤立が指摘される。核実験の強行などにより、最大の友好国、中国との関係が冷え込み、首脳級交流は途絶えている。

Cool heads vital

The North’s artillery fire came immediately after Park announced she would attend a Chinese ceremony to mark the “victory in its war against Japan.” We wonder whether this action was aimed at cooling the relationship between Seoul and Beijing, which has become closer.
　中国の抗日戦勝記念行事への朴大統領出席が発表された直後に北朝鮮が砲撃したのは、中韓接近を牽制けんせいする狙いだろうか。

Kim Jong Un issued a decree declaring a “quasi-state of war” to the country’s frontline troops. Can Kim, who lacks leadership experience, deal adequately with such an explosive situation while the country's political situation is so unstable? This fear will be difficult to eliminate.
　前線部隊に「準戦時状態」を発令したのは、金正恩第１書記だ。国内体制が不安定な中、指導者の経験に乏しい金第１書記が、一触即発の状況に適切な対処ができるのか。不安は拭えない。

Park, on the other hand, declared that her country “will cope with the provocation resolutely.” She cannot make concessions easily due to a domestic situation in which popular support for her administration has declined and media organizations are insisting on a hard-line stance.
　一方、朴氏は「挑発には断固として対応する」と公言する。政権支持率は低迷し、韓国メディアは北朝鮮に対する強硬な姿勢を主張している。朴氏も、容易に妥協できない国内事情を抱える。

It is essential, however, for the two Koreas to consider the risk of a military conflict and deal with the situation with cool heads.
　だが、南北双方は、軍事衝突のリスクを直視し、冷静に対応することが肝要である。

The North Korean leadership is reportedly trying to tighten its grip on the military and the Workers’ Party of Korea, among others, by emphasizing the “threat” posed by South Korea. There is speculation that North Korea will test-launch an intermediate-range or a long-range missile to enhance its national prestige and time it to the 70th anniversary of the founding of the party on Oct. 10.
　北朝鮮指導部は、韓国の“脅威”を強調することで、軍や朝鮮労働党など国内の引き締めを図っているとされる。１０月１０日の党創建７０周年に合わせて、国威発揚の目的で、中長距離弾道ミサイルを発射するとの観測もある。

Japan, South Korea and the United States must cooperate closely and bolster information-sharing on North Korean affairs. Preparing all possible deterrent measures is also essential to deal with the North’s new military provocation.
　日米韓３か国は、緊密に連携し、北朝鮮情勢の情報共有を強化する必要がある。新たな軍事的挑発を封じ込めるため、抑止に万全を期すことも大切だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 25, 2015)