ＧＤＰマイナス 景気の停滞を長引かせるな

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Govt must take all possible steps to end lull in economic recovery
ＧＤＰマイナス　景気の停滞を長引かせるな

The national economy has been on a path of mild recovery, but its prospects have turned uncertain.
　緩やかに回復してきた景気の雲行きが、怪しくなっている。

The real-term gross domestic product for the April-June quarter declined 0.4 percent from the previous quarter for an annualized fall of 1.6 percent, according to preliminary figures released by the Cabinet Office, representing the first negative growth in three quarters.
　４～６月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）速報は、前期比０・４％減、年率１・６％減となった。３四半期ぶりのマイナス成長だ。

The slump in personal consumption and exports is a major reason behind the poor economic performance. Plant and equipment investment, which holds the key to full-scale growth, also declined, albeit slightly, for the first time in three quarters. Some analysts have pointed out that Japan has entered a lull in its business recovery.
　個人消費と輸出の不振が、主な要因である。本格的な成長実現のカギとなる設備投資も、小幅ながら３期ぶりに減少した。景気は回復が足踏みする「踊り場」に入ったとする見方も出ている。

The important thing is not to let the lull drag on. The government and the Bank of Japan must closely examine possible risky factors and do what it takes to prevent business from losing its steam.
　大切なのは、停滞を長引かせないことだ。政府・日銀はリスクを入念に点検し、景気失速の回避に万全を期さねばならない。

Private consumption — the pillar of domestic demand — dropped by 0.8 percent in the April-June period, compared with the previous quarter, marking the first quarterly fall since the April-June quarter of last year, when personal consumption plunged due to the impact of the consumption tax hike to 8 percent.
　内需の柱の個人消費は、前期比０・８％減だった。マイナスは、消費税率引き上げの影響で急減した昨年４～６月期以来である。

Economic revitalization minister Akira Amari cited the light vehicle tax hike and unseasonable weather as reasons for the shrinkage of consumption, indicating that the decline was “caused largely by temporary factors.”
　甘利経済再生相は消費減少の原因として軽自動車税増税や天候不順を挙げ、「一時的な要素が大きい」との見方を示した。

But it must be noted that the benefits of wage hikes have been offset by the continued rise in prices of food and other products, a consequence of high raw material prices amid the yen’s weakening. It is certain that households have become more budget-minded. Perhaps consumers have yet to break away from the bearish mind-set ingrained during long years of deflation.
　ただ、円安による原材料高で食品などの値上げが続き、賃上げの恩恵は相殺されている。家計が節約志向を強めているのは確かだ。デフレで染みついた弱気から、脱し切れていない面もあろう。

Excessive pessimism is unwarranted, but the government must analyze factors behind slack consumption from a multifaceted viewpoint and work out improvement measures.
　過度な悲観は無用だが、政府は消費不振の要因を多角的に分析し、改善策を練る必要がある。

Alarming overseas factors

A more alarming factor is the slowdown of overseas economies. It is necessary to keep a close watch especially on the volatile Chinese economy.
　さらに警戒すべきなのが、海外経済の減速だ。特に、波乱含みの中国経済から目が離せない。

China has posted a conspicuous slowdown of such economic indicators as industrial production and construction investment. Affected by this, the growth in emerging Asian countries has begun to slacken. The dull overseas demand, centering on China, has been dampening Japan’s exports.
　中国は工業生産や建設投資など経済指標の伸びの鈍化が目立つ。その影響で、アジア新興国の成長も減速気味だ。中国を中心とした外需の低迷が、日本の輸出の足を引っ張っている。

Given that the People’s Bank of China devalued the yuan on three consecutive days last week, many market dealers concluded that the Chinese economy has been worsening more seriously than expected. A loss of steam in China’s growth would have a big impact on the world economy.
　中国人民銀行が３日連続で人民元切り下げに踏み切ったことで、市場では中国経済が想定以上に悪化しているとの観測が強まった。中国の成長が失速すれば、世界経済への打撃は大きい。

Some point out that an increase of interest rates in the United States, which can be expected within this year, will trigger outflows of a huge amount of funds from emerging economies. Thus, the uncertainties in economic prospects have been increasing.
　年内にも予想される米国の利上げを引き金に、新興国から巨額の資金が流出するとの見方もある。先行き不透明感は増している。

To survive economic disturbances that originate overseas, the Japanese economy’s fundamental power of growth must be urgently augmented.
　海外発の波乱に耐えられるように、日本経済が基礎的な成長力を高めることが急務である。

It is also essential to enhance the motivation and vigor of the private sector. We suggest that the government expedite the implementation of growth strategies, including promotion of plant and equipment investment that will improve productivity and deregulation that can help expand growth industries.
　民間の意欲と活力を高めることが大事だ。生産性向上に資する設備投資の促進策や、成長産業の拡大につながる規制緩和など、政府の成長戦略を加速させたい。

It is right for the government to aim for a virtuous circle in which corporate profits are passed on to workers in the form of wage hikes and this leads to expanded consumption. To ensure this is realized, the government should steadily carry out measures that can deepen this dimension of the Abenomics economic policy package.
　企業利益を賃上げに還元し、消費拡大につなげる「好循環経済」を目指す方向は正しい。その実現を確かなものとするため、政府はアベノミクスを深化させる手を間断なく打っていくべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 18, 2015)