社説:リニア建設 本当に進めて大丈夫か

September 06, 2014(Mainichi Japan)
Editorial: Time still left to review maglev line
社説:リニア建設　本当に進めて大丈夫か

Plans to build a magnetically levitated (maglev) bullet train line that will eventually connect Tokyo and Osaka have moved a step forward with Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Central) applying to the land, infrastructure, transport and tourism minister for permission for construction.
　ＪＲ東海が国土交通相に着工の認可を申請したことで、リニア中央新幹線がいよいよ現実味を帯びてきた。
   
JR Central plans to begin operations on the Maglev Chuo Shinkansen Line between Tokyo's Shinagawa Station and Nagoya in 2027 and extend the line to Shin-Osaka Station by 2045. The line would cut the journey between Tokyo and Osaka down to one hour.

If permitted, the large-scale project will finally get under way 41 years after the central government mapped out its basic plan.
認可が下りれば、国による基本計画決定から４１年を経て、巨大プロジェクトが動き出すことになる。

However, questions remain over whether the project should be given the green light without a review.
　だが、本当にこのまま突き進んでよいのか、と改めて問いたい。

JR Central intends to fully foot the costs of the project, which are expected to total approximately 9 trillion yen. Critics have expressed concern as to the profitability of the "super-superexpress" line.
　２０２７年の品川−名古屋開業、４５年の品川−新大阪開業を目指すリニア中央新幹線計画は、総事業費が約９兆円に上る異例のスケールだ。ＪＲ東海が全費用をまかなうというが、採算面で大きな不安を抱えたまま、踏み出そうとしている。

If the maglev train line were to threaten the company's management, it would not just be a problem for JR Central alone, but could force the national government to use taxpayers' money to bail out the company, since the project is of a highly public nature.
　万一、経営を揺るがす事態になれば、ＪＲ東海だけの問題ではすまなくなるだろう。日本の大動脈を独占的に担う、極めて公共性の高い企業であり、税金を使った救済にも発展しかねない。

Nevertheless, the Diet has failed to hold comprehensive deliberations on the project and there has been no full-scale national debate on the issue. This is the biggest problem. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism should not easily allow the project to go ahead as if it has been decided in advance.
　それなのに、国会で包括的な審議がなされることも、国民的議論が盛り上がることもなかった。ここが一番問題だ。国交省は、計画ありき、でゴーサインを出すべきではない。

The maglev train line project aims mainly to make up for a capacity shortage on the Tokaido Shinkansen Line between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka, decrease the traveling time on this section, and secure an alternative route for the Tokaido Shinkansen in case the line is affected by a powerful earthquake.
　リニア中央新幹線には、限界に近付いた東海道新幹線の輸送能力を補うことや移動時間の短縮に加え、東海地震に備えた代替ルートの確保、東海道新幹線の老朽化対応という狙いがある。

However, some have expressed doubts and concerns over the project, not only with regard to the line's profitability but also over safety and its impact on the environment.
だが、経済性、環境面、安全性の観点などから、多くの疑問や懸念が指摘されている。

The construction of a tunnel passing through the South Alps is expected to present a challenge, and the entire project could be substantially delayed because of this. JR Central has recently revised upward the estimated costs of the construction on the line between Tokyo and Nagoya by 93.5 billion yen from the figure the company had announced five years ago. Considering uncertain factors such as the work period, the price of construction materials, personnel expenses and interest rates, moreover, there is no guarantee that the costs won't increase any further.
　南アルプスを貫くトンネルの工事は特に難航が予想され、大幅な長期化もあり得る。ＪＲ東海は名古屋までの工事について、５年前に発表した事業費を９３５億円上方修正した。しかし、工期、資材価格や人件費、借金の金利など不確実性は多く、大幅な追加もないとはいえない。

The company has admitted that the Maglev Chuo Shinkansen Line project will be unprofitable even if unexpected increases in expenses are disregarded.
　想定外の費用増がなくてもこの事業に採算性がないことをＪＲ東海自身が認めている。

"The maglev line alone will never pay," JR Central Chairman Yoshiomi Yamada told a news conference in September last year when he was serving as its president.
昨年９月、山田佳臣社長（当時）は、「リニアだけでは絶対にペイしない（帳尻が合わない）」と記者会見で明言した。

JR Central apparently intends to use profits from the Tokaido Shinkansen Line to make up for deficit generated by the maglev train line, but it remains uncertain whether the company can increase or even maintain the current level of demand as the population is decreasing and aging. It is extremely difficult to predict what Japan will look like 31 years from now, when the construction work on the line to Shin-Osaka Station is expected to be completed.
　東海道新幹線のもうけで穴埋めする考えのようだが、人口減少と高齢化が進む中、需要の増加どころか現状維持さえ確かとは言い難い。新大阪までの工事が完了するとされる３１年後の日本の姿を予測することは極めて難しいのである。

There have been numerous examples of large-scale projects in which operational costs snowballed from their initial estimations. For example, the Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Expressway has cost 3.8 times its initial estimate. Lessons should be drawn from reckless projects based on overly optimistic forecasts for demand.
　巨大プロジェクトの事業費が、当初の想定よりはるかに膨らんだという事例は少なくない。例えば本州四国連絡道路では３．８倍に跳ね上がった。甘い需要見通しで突っ走った過去の失敗に学ぶべきではないか。

If an alternative route is necessary for the Tokaido Shinkansen in case of a Tokai earthquake that could hit the line, it does not have to use a maglev train system, and the Hokuriku Shinkansen Line could be used as an alternative route. The project should be considered as an issue that affects the whole nation. It is not too late to launch in-depth debate now to review the project.
　東海地震の際の代替ルートというのであれば、リニアでなくてもよいし、北陸新幹線の活用もあろう。まさに国全体に関わる話として検討すべきテーマである。今から本気で議論をしても、遅すぎない。

毎日新聞　2014年09月06日　02時30分