南シナ海情勢 掘削を中止させた対中包囲網

The Yomiuri Shimbun
International pressure forced China to stop oil drilling in South China Sea
南シナ海情勢　掘削を中止させた対中包囲網

In the face of fierce criticism from the international community, China perhaps had no choice but to suspend its attempt to “change the status quo by force” when it ended its operations to drill for oil near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.
　強い国際的な批判を受けて、「力による現状変更」を中断せざるを得なかったのだろう。
　中国が、南シナ海・パラセル（西沙）諸島付近での石油掘削作業を終了した。

The operations were originally scheduled to continue through mid-August but ended earlier because “work proceeded smoothly,” according to China’s explanation. Undoubtedly, however, China bowed to the international pressures and curtailed the operations.
　作業は当初、８月中旬までとされていた。中国は「作業が順調に終わった」と説明するが、実際は、対中包囲網が作業短縮の要因だったのは間違いあるまい。

In early May, China unilaterally started drilling for oil in a sea zone also claimed by Vietnam, which strongly urged it to halt its operations. Chinese and Vietnamese vessels rammed into one another repeatedly, sinking a Vietnamese boat in one instance and escalating the tension to a dangerous level.
　中国がベトナムとの係争海域で一方的に掘削を始めたのは５月初旬だ。ベトナムは強く中止を求めた。中越双方の船が衝突を繰り返し、ベトナム船が沈没するなど、一時は危険な状態に陥った。

Large-scale anti-China demonstrations erupted in Vietnam one after another, while its government waged an international campaign denouncing China for its unjustness. Perhaps China had not expected that Vietnam—increasingly becoming economically dependent on China—would put up such fierce resistance.
　ベトナムは、中国の不当性を国際社会に訴え、大規模な反中デモも続発した。中国は、経済面で対中依存を強めるベトナムの抵抗が、これほど激しいとは予測していなかったのではないか。

Exposing a greater miscalculation by China was the fact that Japan, the United States and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations swiftly rallied behind Vietnam to strengthen their cooperation to counter China.
　更に大きな誤算は、日米両国や、東南アジア諸国連合（ＡＳＥＡＮ）などによる対中連携が一気に強まったことだろう。

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe criticized China for its self-righteousness at international conferences and on other occasions by repeatedly underscoring the importance of the rule of law in light of China’s territorial claims, which have no grounds in international law. His assertions were widely accepted in the international community.
　安倍首相は国際会議などで、中国の独善的な行動を批判した。領有権を巡る中国の主張に国際法上の根拠がないことを念頭に、「法の支配」の重要性を繰り返し強調し、幅広い賛同を得た。

Stronger Japan-U.S. ties backed

Strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance through the approval of the exercise of the right of collective self-defense has won the support of many countries concerned.
　集団的自衛権の行使容認を通じた日米同盟の強化も、関係国の支持を集めている。

With its policy of focusing on Asia, the United States made it clear it is willing to actively engage in South China Sea issues. At a time when Beijing is trying to exclude the United States from building an Asian security order, it is significant that the United States is squarely challenging such Chinese endeavors.
　「アジア重視」政策を掲げる米国も、南シナ海問題に積極的に関与する姿勢を明確にした。中国がアジアの安保秩序から米国の排除をうかがう中、その意図を正面から否定する意義は大きい。

At their foreign ministerial talks in May, ASEAN members—whose stances toward China usually differ—took the concerted action of expressing “serious concerns” about the dangerous situation in the South China Sea.
　普段は対中姿勢がばらつくＡＳＥＡＮ各国も外相会議で、南シナ海の危険な状況に「深刻な懸念」を表明し、共同歩調を取った。

China’s isolation could not have been any clearer.
　中国の孤立は明らかだった。

A series of international meetings awaits China. The ASEAN Regional Forum, which will be joined by Japan, the United States and China, will be held early next month, while China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in Beijing in November.
　来月上旬には、日米中も参加するＡＳＥＡＮ地域フォーラム（ＡＲＦ）が開かれる。１１月には、中国が北京でアジア太平洋経済協力会議（ＡＰＥＣ）首脳会議を主宰する予定だ。

China apparently wants to avoid being the target of criticism in these forums. Some observers predict that the country will exercise self-restraint for the time being.
　中国には、こうした場で対中批判が集中する事態を避けたい思惑があろう。当面は、抑制的な行動を取るとの見方も出ている。

Even so, China will surely not change its strategy of expanding its territories and maritime interests in the South and East China seas.
　しかし、南・東シナ海で自らの領土や海洋権益の拡大を図る中国の海洋進出戦略は変わるまい。

Japan and the United States must brace themselves for a prolonged, hegemonic campaign by China.
　日米両国は、中国の覇権的な行動は長期化すると覚悟すべきだ。

It is notable, however, that accumulated efforts by the international community have borne some fruit this time around. Factoring this experience in, the nations concerned should try to persuade China to constructively participate in an initiative to build a new Asian order.
今回、国際的な連携の積み重ねが一定の成果を上げた。この経験を踏まえつつ、新たなアジア秩序作りに、中国を建設的な形で参加させていくことが求められよう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 20, 2014)