マイナス金利 デフレ阻止に動いた欧州中銀

The Yomiuri Shimbun
ECB adoption of negative deposit rate bold measure to prevent deflation
マイナス金利　デフレ阻止に動いた欧州中銀

The European Central Bank has introduced a bold monetary easing policy with a strong will to prevent the European economy from falling into deflation.
　デフレへの転落を阻止したいという強い決意の表れだろう。
　欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）が大胆な金融緩和策を打ち出した。

The ECB has decided to cut its annual policy rate to a record low 0.15 percent and lower the overnight deposit rate, which is applied to funds commercial banks park at the central bank, to minus 0.1 percent from zero percent. This makes the ECB the first major central bank in the world to adopt a negative bank deposit rate.
　政策金利を過去最低の年０・１５％とし、民間銀行がＥＣＢに預金する際に適用する金利は、０％からマイナス０・１％に下げる。主要な中央銀行でマイナス金利を採用するのは初めてだ。

A negative deposit rate means that commercial banks have to pay interest at this rate, which is like a handling fee, to place funds at the central bank. The measure is expected to stimulate the European economy by encouraging commercial banks to cut back on parking excessive funds at the ECB and instead use the money to finance companies.
　マイナス金利になると、ＥＣＢに資金を預けた銀行は「手数料」のように金利を払うことになる。銀行がＥＣＢに預けている余剰資金を企業融資に回し、景気を刺激する効果が期待されている。

It also aims to lower interest rate levels in general and redress the strong euro.
　金利水準全体を引き下げ、ユーロ高を是正する狙いもあろう。

The ECB is also to implement a measure to provide low-interest funds to commercial banks for up to four years. It is commendable that the central bank is trying to use every measure at hand to avoid deflation.
　ＥＣＢは低利資金を最長４年、民間銀行に供給する措置なども実施する。デフレの回避へ政策を総動員する姿勢は評価できる。

The European economy remains stagnant, though it has overcome the financial and debt crises of Greece and a few other countries.
　欧州経済は、ギリシャなどの金融・債務危機を乗り切ったものの、停滞状態が続く。

The effects of the low growth rate and the strong euro have kept increase rates of commodity prices in the eurozone at less than 1 percent for eight straight months, far lower than the target of near 2 percent.
　低成長とユーロ高の影響で、ユーロ圏の消費者物価上昇率は、「２％近く」としている物価目標を大きく下回り、８か月連続で１％を切っている。

Avoiding a 2nd Japan

If the situation is left unaddressed, the eurozone will become a second Japan, which suffered from a strong yen and depression under deflation for many years. Such concerns are likely to have pushed the ECB to adopt the unconventional monetary easing measure.
　このままでは、長期にわたり円高とデフレ不況に苦しんだ日本の二の舞いになりかねない。そうした危機感が、ＥＣＢに異例の緩和策を決断させた理由だろう。

Now attention is focused on whether the latest measure will achieve its intended effects. Not a few economists say the ECB’s policy rate is already close to zero and a further rate reduction will have only a limited effect.
　今後の焦点は、今回の政策が、期待通りの効果を上げるかどうかである。
　ＥＣＢの政策金利は、すでにゼロに近く、利下げの効き目は限定的とする見方も少なくない。

It is also said that the introduction of a negative deposit rate will increase the burden on commercial banks and worsen their finances, leading to a minimization of new loans and higher lending rates.
　マイナス金利の導入については、民間銀行の負担が増し、銀行の財務悪化による融資の抑制や、貸出金利上昇などにつながりかねないとの指摘もある。

Finance Minister Taro Aso said he plans to wait to see the outcome of the move. “I still can’t say whether the results will be good or bad,” he said.
　麻生財務相は、「いい結果になるか、悪い結果になるか分からない」と述べ、影響を見極めていく考えを示した。

Some market observers say the ECB will eventually have to resort to full-fledged quantitative monetary-easing measures like the Japanese and U.S. central banks, which have purchased a huge amount of government bonds.
　市場ではＥＣＢがいずれ、国債を大量に購入している日本や米国のように、本格的な量的金融緩和策に踏み切らざるを得なくなるとの観測も浮上している。

However, there are many challenges for the ECB to overcome before implementing tangible measures, including deciding what proportion of government bonds would best be held by the central bank—which is responsible for the financial policy of the 18 eurozone countries—in purchasing them from member governments.
　だが、１８か国のユーロ圏で金融政策を担っているＥＣＢが、各国の国債をどのような比率で購入すればいいのかなど、具体化に向けた難題は少なくない。

The future of the Japanese economy is looking brighter, while the United States, which has recovered its economic growth, is reducing quantitative monetary easing.
　日本経済は明るさを増し、成長の回復した米国は量的金融緩和の縮小を進めている。

The ECB’s policy management capabilities are now being tested on how the growth of the eurozone economy can be recovered to help achieve the stabilization of the global economy.
　世界経済の安定に向けて、欧州の成長をどう回復するか。ＥＣＢの政策運営が問われる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 7, 2014)