上向く世界経済 本格再生へ「分水嶺」の１年だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun January 3, 2014
Steady leadership needed as world economy at crossroads
上向く世界経済　本格再生へ「分水嶺」の１年だ（1月3日付・読売社説）

　◆先進国と新興国にくすぶる不安

Signs of a bright future for the global economy seem to have begun twinkling, with advanced economies picking up gradually after managing to break out of monetary and fiscal crises.
　金融・財政危機を収束した先進国の景気が持ち直し、世界経済の前途に明るさが見えてきた。

Uncertainties remain, however, concerning the policy handling of the United States and European countries. Caution is also needed regarding a slowdown of emerging market economies such as China.
　ただし、米欧の政策運営には、まだ不透明感が残る。中国など新興国経済の減速にも注意が必要だ。

This year will most likely mark a watershed regarding whether the world economy can realize sufficiently robust growth to get onto a full-fledged recovery path.
　より力強い成長を実現し、本格的な景気回復軌道に乗れるかどうか、分水嶺(れい)の１年となろう。

In its report last autumn, the International Monetary Fund forecast the 2014 world economy would log 3.6 percent growth after inflation. It is noteworthy that the growth of the world economy this year is expected to expand a little on the strength of advanced economies’ pickup, compared to 2013’s growth, which the IMF estimates at 2.9 percent.
　国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は昨秋、２０１４年の世界経済を実質３・６％成長と予想した。２・９％成長が見込まれる１３年と比べると、先進国の伸びを背景に、やや増進するのがポイントである。

U.S. debt ceiling accord a key
　◆米債務上限の合意急げ

The world financial woes triggered by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the autumn of 2008 embroiled Greece, developing into a crisis for all European economies.
　世界経済は、０８年秋のリーマン・ショックがギリシャに飛び火し、欧州危機へ発展した。

What made it possible for the global economy to begin finding a way out of a chain of negative occurrences at long last was, first of all, indications of a solid business recovery in the United States, the epicenter of the global financial hardships. The European economies, after experiencing a series of business downturns, have now returned to positive growth, signifying a breakaway from the worst phase of their economic conditions.
　「負の連鎖」をようやく抜け出しつつあるのは、危機の震源地だった米国の景気が底堅く推移し始めたのが主因だ。景気後退が続いた欧州経済もプラス成長に転じ、最悪期を脱した。

Symbolic of the signs of uptrend is the decision late last year by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board to modify its extraordinary easy money policy in response to improvements in U.S. unemployment rates and other key economic indicators.
　雇用改善などを受けて、米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が決めた異例の金融政策の修正が象徴的である。

Starting this month, the Fed is scheduled to embark on an “exit strategy” designed to scale down bit by bit Phase Three of its quantitative monetary easing, or QE3, in which the U.S. central bank has been purchasing a huge amount of U.S. treasury bonds and other financial assets every month.
　米国債などを毎月購入してきた量的緩和策第３弾（ＱＥ３）の規模を小刻みに縮小する「出口戦略」に今月から一歩踏み出す。

It seems the world’s market players have been reassured to see the Fed spearheading a move in favor of an exit strategy, amid large-scale monetary easing policies in place in Japan, the United States and Europe. Consequently, stock prices are on the rise in New York and other markets.
　日米欧が大規模な緩和策を続ける中、ＦＲＢが先陣を切って慎重に動き出したことで、安心感を与えたのだろう。ニューヨーク市場などの株価が上昇している。

The Fed reportedly intends to continue tapering its QE3 asset purchases, with a view to terminating the easy money policy as early as the end of the year. Next year and afterward, the Fed is seen probing timing for an end to its zero-interest rate policy while looking for an opportune time to raise rates.
　ＦＲＢはＱＥ３縮小を継続し、年内にも終了させる方針という。来年以降、ゼロ金利政策の終了と利上げ時期も探るとみられる。

Due attention should be paid to the adverse impact of colossal money supplies worldwide that have so far been in place, as they could lead to rekindling of economic bubbles in the United States, emerging market countries and elsewhere.
　これまでの巨額マネーの供給で米国や新興国にバブルが再燃する副作用への警戒も必要だ。

Implementation of the exit strategy, however, will require a considerably long period of time. The ability of incoming Fed chair Janet Yellen, who is to take the place of Chairman Ben Bernanke toward the end of January, will certainly be tested through her efforts to ensure that no danger arises of the world economy and markets plunging into turmoil in the process of the implementation of the Fed’s exit strategy.
　とは言え、出口戦略は長い道のりになる。世界経済や市場に混乱を招かないよう、１月末にバーナンキ議長と交代するイエレン新議長の手腕が問われる。

How things evolve regarding U.S. congressional discussions on fiscal measures is also of key significance.
　米国の財政協議も焦点だ。

It is a highly welcome development that Democrats and Republicans in Congress have reached common ground on a federal budget deal, successfully averting a recurrence of a partial shutdown of government functions.
　議会の与野党が、予算確保で合意し、政府機関の一部閉鎖（シャットダウン）の再来を回避したことは評価したい。

Should the two parties fail to strike an agreement on raising the federal government’s debt ceiling in time for the Feb. 7 deadline, however, there would be a high risk of U.S. treasury bonds going into default. If U.S. treasury bonds actually went into default, there would be serious damage to not only the United States but also the rest of the world economy.
　だが、２月７日までに与野党が連邦債務上限引き上げで合意しないと、米国債がデフォルト（債務不履行）に陥る別のリスクが迫っている。現実に起きれば米国だけでなく、世界に打撃を与える。

Therefore, it was reasonable for U.S. President Barack Obama to ask Republican Party members in Congress to unconditionally approve raising the debt ceiling. The confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans is expected to continue ahead of midterm elections in November, but an early agreement on the matter is needed.
　オバマ大統領が野党共和党に無条件での上限引き上げを求めたのはもっともだ。１１月の中間選挙を控えて与野党の対立は続くが、早期合意を図ってもらいたい。

The European Central Bank carried out an additional interest rate cut in November despite having been able to stem the business slowdown because it was wary about prices hovering at low levels.
　景気後退を食い止めたのに、欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）が昨年１１月に追加利下げしたのは、物価低迷を警戒しているためだ。

Europe must avoid deflation
　◆欧州はデフレ回避を

The growth rate in consumer prices has been held to less than 1 percent, lower than the 2 percent targeted by the ECB. There is concern that Europe will fall into deflation like Japan.
　ユーロ圏の消費者物価上昇率は０％台にとどまり、ＥＣＢが目標とする２％を下回る。日本のようなデフレ転落も懸念される。

If Europe’s favorable economic turn should prove to be a “false dawn,” it will hobble the world economy again.
　欧州の経済好転が「偽りの夜明け」に終われば、再び世界経済の足かせになろう。

The ECB should not hesitate to take the next steps, including an additional interest rate cut. Deflation must be avoided while keeping a close watch on price and business trends at the same time.
　ＥＣＢは追加利下げなどの「次の一手」を躊躇(ちゅうちょ)してはならない。物価と景気を両にらみしつつ、デフレを食い止めるべきだ。

ECB stress tests on eurozone banks will start shortly ahead of its integrated supervision of the banks starting this autumn.
　今秋、ＥＣＢに域内の銀行監督が一元化されるのに先立ち、銀行の資産査定（ストレステスト）がまもなく始まる。

It is indispensable to promote the strengthening of the financial underpinnings of banks with capital shortages to prevent financial uncertainty from flaring up again.
　資本不足行の財務基盤強化を進め、金融不安の再燃を防ぐことも欠かせない。

The pace of growth has been slowing down across the board in emerging economies. Difficult economic management is expected to continue in China, and the country is likely to see a growth rate of about 7.5 percent this year, unlike the double-digit growth it once marked.
　新興国では、成長が軒並み減速している。難しい経済運営が続く中国は、今年もかつての２ケタ成長を下回る７・５％程度の成長にとどまる見通しだ。

In China, nonbanks and other financial institutions have collected funds from individuals by selling high-interest financial products. These funds have been used to promote public works projects and real estate development in regional areas. It is problematic that the real situation of such shadow banking remains unknown.
　ノンバンクなどが高金利の金融商品で個人から集めた資金が、地方の公共事業や不動産開発を後押しする。そうした「影の銀行（シャドーバンキング）」の実態が依然不透明なことは問題である。

Shadow banking problematic
　◆中国「影の銀行」問題

Investment firms under the umbrella of Chinese local governments have a huge amount of debts. It is vital to prevent a situation in which the Chinese financial system is shaken by deferred debt repayment.
　地方政府傘下の投資会社は巨額債務を抱える。債務返済が滞り、中国の金融システムを揺るがす事態を防ぐことが肝要だ。

How can China break away from an investment-dependent economy and achieve a soft landing for stable growth? Correcting economic disparities is also a tough challenge. China should accelerate reform.
　投資依存型経済から脱却し、安定成長にどう軟着陸させるか。経済格差是正も難題である。中国の改革加速が求められよう。

Due to the U.S. “exit strategy” of scaling down quantitative monetary easing, investment money has been withdrawn from Brazil and India among other countries, and there is now a real possibility of a vicious circle in which the weakening of their currencies leads to the stagnation of their real economies.
　ブラジル、インドなどでは、米国の量的緩和縮小に伴って、投資マネーが引き揚げられ、自国通貨安が実体経済の低迷をもたらす悪循環が現実味を帯びる。

As it has become an urgent task to rein in high prices, central banks of various countries have been tightening their money supply.
　一方、物価高の抑制も急務になり、各国の中央銀行が金融引き締めを強化している。

To broaden the vision of the world economy, now lighted by a faint hope, advanced and emerging economies must overcome their own challenges and promote policy coordination.
　薄明かりがともった世界経済の展望を広げるには、先進国と新興国がそれぞれの課題を克服し、政策協調を図らねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 3, 2014)
（2014年1月3日01時38分  読売新聞）