イラン大統領選 対外強硬路線は修正されるか

The Yomiuri Shimbun June 19, 2013
Will Iran’s hard-line stance change under new president?
イラン大統領選　対外強硬路線は修正されるか（6月18日付・読売社説）

How can Iran’s newly elected president live up to the people’s will expressed in the presidential election? We hope the new leader will first tackle the task of mending relations with foreign countries.
　選挙に表れた民意にどう応えるのか。政権交代を機に、まずは対外関係の修復を期待したい。

Hasan Rowhani, a conservative and moderate candidate, emerged victorious in the election held Saturday at a time when Iran has become increasingly isolated internationally due to its nuclear development. Rowhani, a cleric, won overwhelmingly after calling for improved relations with the United States and Europe.
　核開発で国際的孤立を深めているイランで大統領選挙が行われ、米欧との関係改善を掲げた保守穏健派のロハニ師が当選した。

Rowhani garnered more than half of the votes cast to score a stunning victory over a conservative hard-liner who had been billed as the leading candidate.
　５０％を超える得票率で、有力と目された保守強硬派の候補に大差をつけての勝利である。

In acknowledging his win, Rowhani said it was “a victory of wisdom over radicalism.” He appears to be willing to follow a line that maintains a distance from that of the current administration.
　ロハニ師は「過激主義に対する知恵の勝利だ」と宣言した。現政権とは一線を画す立場だ。

It will be desirable for the international community if Rowhani shifts from the hard-line diplomatic policy pursued by outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who caused alarm by making provocative statements such as calling for Israel “to be wiped off the map.”
　イスラエルを「地図から消し去るべきだ」など挑発的言動が目立ったアフマディネジャド大統領の強硬な外交路線を転換するなら、国際社会にとっても望ましい。

Behind Rowhani’s resounding victory is a sense of stagnation that is enveloping Iranian society.
　ロハニ師大勝の背景には、イラン社会に広がる閉塞感がある。

During Ahmadinejad’s two terms over eight years, tight controls were placed on reformist politicians and freedom of speech. The United States and Europe have imposed economic sanctions in response to Iran’s continued nuclear development. This led to decreased crude oil exports and skyrocketing domestic prices of goods, which has stung people’s livelihoods.
　現大統領の２期８年の在任中、改革派の政治家や言論は封じ込められた。核開発継続を理由に米欧から科せられた制裁で、原油輸出が落ち込み、物価も高騰して、国民生活は困窮している。

A mandate to end impasse

Iranian voters, it may be said, have given Rowhani a mandate to break the stalemate.
　有権者は、事態打開をロハニ師に託したと言える。

A focal point is how he will deal with the nuclear issue.
　焦点は、核問題での対応だ。

Iran has been pressing ahead with uranium enrichment in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Tehran has enriched some uranium to 20 percent, far exceeding the 3.5 percent of nuclear fuel used at nuclear power plants. This unavoidably has stirred suspicions that Iran aims to develop nuclear weapons.
　イランは、国連安全保障理事会の決議を無視してウラン濃縮活動を続けている。濃縮度も原子力発電所の核燃料に使われる３・５％を上回る２０％にまで高めた。核兵器開発を狙っているのでは、と疑われても仕方あるまい。

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany have placed highest priority of having Iran stop production of uranium enriched to 20 percent.
　安保理常任理事国とドイツの６か国は、濃縮度２０％ウランの生産停止を最優先で求めている。

It is natural that the United States and European countries have urged Iran anew after the election to quickly resolve the nuclear issue diplomatically.
　選挙後、米欧諸国が核問題の迅速な外交的解決を改めてイランに呼びかけたのは、当然だ。

During the Iranian administration led by reformist President Mohammad Khatami from 1997 to 2005, Rowhani showed flexibility as he conducted nuclear negotiations with Britain, France and Germany. Nevertheless, little optimism can be warranted at this time.
　ロハニ師は、改革派のハタミ前政権下で英仏独との核交渉の責任者を務め、柔軟姿勢を示した経歴があるが、楽観はできない。

Khamenei holds real power

In Iran, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the reins of power, including diplomatic decisions. Under the union of religion and politics in Iran, there can be no change in nuclear policy unless it is approved by Khamenei. Can such a key person change Iran’s policy stance?
　イランでは、外交決定権を含め実権は最高指導者ハメネイ師にある。政教一致体制の下、ハメネイ師の同意抜きに核政策の変更はあり得ない。カギを握るハメネイ師が政策転換できるのかどうか。

Israel has not ruled out the option of a military strike to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. Military tension in the region will heighten if Iran continues its nuclear development.
　イスラエルは、イランの核兵器保有を阻止するために、攻撃も辞さない構えだ。イランの核開発が続けば、軍事的緊張は高まる。

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga expressed hope that Iran’s change of president will bring about concrete progress toward resolving the nuclear issue. Japan will lean on the new adminisration to achieve that goal by utilizing their “traditional relationship of friendship” as leverage.
　菅官房長官は、イランの大統領交代が、核問題の解決に向けて「具体的な進展」をもたらすことに期待感を表明した。日本としても、「伝統的な友好関係」をテコに働きかける考えだ。

Japan relies on the Middle East for most of its crude oil imports, so ensuring stability in the region is a matter of life and death. The Iranian situation demands constant vigilance.
　原油の輸入を中東地域に依存する日本にとって、地域の安定は死活的に重要だ。イラン情勢から目を離すわけにはいかない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 18, 2013)
（2013年6月18日01時33分  読売新聞）