東京都議選告示 参院選を占う先行指標となる

The Yomiuri Shimbun June 15, 2013
Tokyo assembly poll foreshadows result of upper house elections
東京都議選告示　参院選を占う先行指標となる（6月14日付・読売社説）

The results of the June 23 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, with about 10 million voters, will be a harbinger of results in the House of Councillors election scheduled for next month.
　有権者約１０００万人の首都決戦は来月の参院選の先行指標となる。

A major issue in the metropolitan assembly election will be what judgment parties make on Abenomics, the economic policy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government.
　安倍政権の経済政策である「アベノミクス」をどう評価するかが大きな争点となろう。

The official campaign period for the election starts Friday. However, the de facto election campaign is already overheating, with presidents and senior officials of political parties running to and fro in Tokyo.
　東京都議選が、きょう告示される。各党の党首、幹部クラスがすでに都内を走り回るなど、事実上の選挙戦が過熱している。

The metropolitan assembly election attracts a lot of attention because in the past it has often foreshadowed the results of national elections held soon afterward.
　都議選が注目されるのは、直後の国政選と連動することが多いからだ。

Will history repeat?

In the previous metropolitan assembly election of 2009, for instance, the Liberal Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat while the Democratic Party of Japan made a remarkable breakthrough to become the assembly’s largest group. It was as if the poll projected the results of the House of Representatives election the following month, which brought about a change of government.
前回２００９年は、自民党が大敗し、民主党が躍進を遂げて都議会最大会派となった。翌月の衆院選での政権交代を告げるような結果だった。

In the upcoming metropolitan assembly election, the LDP is trying to become the largest party in the assembly again and to secure a stable majority with its partner New Komeito.
　今回、自民党は都議会第１党の座を奪還し、公明党とともに、安定した与党勢力の確保を目指している。

Their success or failure will likely predict whether the two parties will win a majority of seats in the upper house election, thus ending the divided Diet in which opposition parties control the upper house.
参院選で過半数の議席を自公で獲得し、衆参「ねじれ国会」を解消できるかどうかを占うことにつながろう。

“[Abenomics] has drastically changed the dark, thick cloud and [negative] atmosphere that had covered Japan,” Abe said during a street speech in Tokyo. “If we keep this course, the economy will grow without doubt.”
　安倍首相は都内の遊説で、アベノミクスについて、「日本を覆っていた暗く厚い雲、空気が大きく変わった。この道を進めば、間違いなく経済成長させていくことができる」と訴えた。

The so-called third arrow of his economic policy, following bold monetary easing and flexible fiscal policy, is growth strategy. Since its outline has only just been announced, it should be allowed time to bear fruit.
　ただ、大胆な金融緩和、機動的な財政政策に続く「第３の矢」の成長戦略は発表した直後で、成果が出るのはこれからだ。

However, what kind of road map to economic recovery is the LDP going to draw? The party needs to provide more detailed explanations.
自民党は、経済再生への道筋をどう描くのか、丁寧な説明が必要だ。

Meanwhile, DPJ President Banri Kaieda stressed risks of Abenomics during his street speech. Abenomics “will raise prices, increase people’s burdens and destroy their livelihoods,” he said.
　民主党の海江田代表は街頭演説で、アベノミクスについて、「物価が上昇し、国民の負担が増え、生活を破壊する」と、そのリスクを強調した。

However, if he only stresses the disadvantages of Abenomics, it will not constitute convincing criticism. We hope Kaieda will engage in a substantial debate with the LDP by presenting a specific counterproposal to Abenomics.
　だが、マイナス面を強調するだけでは説得力のある批判とはいえまい。具体的な対案を示して深みのある論戦を展開してほしい。

Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) is losing steam due to remarks by its coleader Toru Hashimoto on so-called comfort women. Your Party, which had been building a coalition with Ishin no Kai, decided to cancel their cooperation in the metropolitan assembly election after Hashimoto made the remarks. The same situation is seen in the upper house election. Attention should be focused on what judgment voters will make on the so-called third force political parties.
　日本維新の会は、橋下共同代表によるいわゆる従軍慰安婦問題の発言を巡り、失速気味だ。共闘体制を構築してきたみんなの党は、選挙協力を解消した。参院選も同じ構図だ。「第３極」に対する有権者の判断が注目される。

In the metropolitan assembly, the LDP and Komeito are ruling parties supporting Tokyo Gov. Naoki Inose’s government. The DPJ, the largest group in the assembly, is also strengthening its position as a quasi-ruling party.
　都議会で、自公両党は猪瀬直樹知事の都政を支える与党だ。最大会派の民主党も与党的な立場を強めている。

There thus appears to be no major issue of local Tokyo politics on which the election is likely to turn. How will voters without any party affiliation, who abound in urban areas, respond to the situation? Low voter turnout is one troubling possibility.
それだけに、都政に関しては大きな争点がない。都市部に多い無党派層がどう動くか。投票率の低下も懸念される。

Tokyo facing challenges

In fact, however, the metropolitan government faces more than a few challenges. One of them is to make Tokyo more resistant to natural disasters as soon as possible. For instance, the metropolitan government must make a plan to deal with the huge number of people who would be unable to go home due to paralysis of public transportation after a major earthquake. It also must take fire prevention measures in residential areas crowded with wooden buildings.
Another urgent task for the metropolitan government is to reduce the number of children waiting to enter public day care centers and develop facilities for the elderly.
　しかし、都の抱える課題は少なくない。帰宅困難者対策や木造住宅密集地の解消などの防災面をはじめ、待機児童対策、高齢者施設の整備などは急務だ。

The metropolitan assembly election should be considered as an opportunity to think not only about Tokyo’s relationship with national politics but also about those specific challenges the nation’s capital is facing.
　都議選を、国政の関連だけではなく、そうした首都の現状を考える機会ともすべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 14, 2013)
（2013年6月14日01時35分  読売新聞）