キプロス混迷 欧州危機の再燃回避が急務だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Mar. 24, 2013)
Prevent disarray in Cyprus from reigniting European crisis
キプロス混迷　欧州危機の再燃回避が急務だ（3月23日付・読売社説）

The financial crisis in Cyprus, a small island nation in the Mediterranean Sea, has begun to rattle the global economy.
　地中海の小国キプロスの金融危機が、世界を揺るがし始めた。

The European Union should play a leading role in resolving the disarray and preventing it from affecting the economies of the rest of Europe and Japan.
　欧州連合（ＥＵ）の主導で混乱を収拾させ、欧州全体や日本経済などへの波及を食い止めるべきだ。

The Cypriot government decided on a plan to restructure the nation's second-largest bank, which has fallen into financial difficulty. This is apparently a last-ditch measure to prevent the chaotic breakdown of the country's banking sector for the time being and secure financial assistance from the European Union.
　キプロス政府は、経営危機に陥った国内第２位の大手銀行を整理・再編する方針を決めた。無秩序な破綻をひとまず回避し、ＥＵからの金融支援を取り付けるための窮余の策と言えよう。

The financial crisis in Cyprus, a member of the EU and the eurozone, was triggered by Greece's financial collapse.
　ＥＵ加盟国で通貨ユーロを導入しているキプロスの危機の発端はギリシャ財政破綻だった。

Nonperforming loans have damaged the financial condition of Cypriot banks that owned a huge amount of Greek government bonds, but the Cypriot government lacks the fiscal strength to extend public support to them. This has led to stagnation in the Cypriot model of prosperity, in which the banking sector attracted enormous funds from Russia and other investors around the world.
　ギリシャ国債を大量保有するキプロスの銀行が不良債権を抱えて経営が悪化したが、政府には公的支援を行う財政力がない。ロシアなど国外の預金者から巨額資金を集めていた「金融立国」モデルが行き詰まったことを示す。

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Tax-on-deposits plan rejected

At Cyprus' request, the EU decided with the International Monetary Bank to extend 10 billion euros (1.2 trillion yen) in assistance. As a condition for the bailout, they demanded Nicosia levy a tax on bank deposits, but that led directly to the current disarray.
　キプロスからの要請を受け、ＥＵは国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）とともに最大１００億ユーロ（約１兆２０００億円）の支援を決めた。
　その条件としてＥＵが求めた銀行預金への課税案が、事態を混乱させる直接の要因になった。

Outraged with the envisioned taxation Cypriots rushed to banks to withdraw money, further fueling the chaos. A government bill aimed at gaining public support by excluding smaller accounts from the taxation was rejected by parliament, which was thinking of public opinion.
　課税を嫌がる国民がＥＵの提案に反発し、預金引き出しに走るなど、騒ぎが拡大した。
　少額預金については課税対象外とし、国民の理解を得ようとした政府の法案も、世論を意識した議会で否決された。

If this situation continues, Cyprus will not be able to meet the conditions demanded by the EU and the bailout will not be implemented. Some observers have expressed concern that Cyprus may default on its debts.
　このままではＥＵの条件をクリアできず、支援策は宙に浮く。債務不履行（デフォルト）を警戒する見方すらくすぶる。

The Cypriot government presented its plan to restructure the second-largest bank because it was forced to present an alternative to the tax on bank deposits. Nicosia must have realized the merits of restructuring the troubled bank, since it would cost less pubic money than keeping the bank open and bailing it out.
　キプロス政府が大手銀行を整理する方針を示したのは、預金課税の代替案を迫られた結果だ。問題銀行を存続させて救済するよりも公的資金が少なくて済むメリットに着目したのだろう。

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German position key

However, it is still too early to tell whether assistance will be extended quickly. One key to determining that lies with Germany, which demands that Cyprus achieve strict fiscal discipline. Nicosia must work out more details of its measures to stabilize its banking sector, in order to convince Germany and other EU members.
　だが、支援が速やかに実現するかどうか、先行きは不透明だ。最大のカギは、厳しい財政規律を求めるドイツが握る。キプロスはドイツなどを納得させる銀行安定策をさらに詰めねばなるまい。

The role of Russia, which has close ties with Cyprus, is also important. We hope Moscow will work with the EU.
　キプロスとの関係が深いロシアの役割も重要だ。ＥＵと連携を図ってもらいたい。

The biggest fear is that the Cypriot crisis will spill over to other countries such as Spain and Italy, reigniting the European crisis that is currently calming down.
　最も懸念されるのは、キプロス危機がスペインやイタリアなどに飛び火し、沈静化しつつあった欧州危機を再燃させる事態だ。

In the foreign exchange market, the euro continues to be weak while the yen tends to be bought. Wild fluctuations in stock prices have also been seen in markets around the world.
　外国為替市場では、ユーロが弱含みで推移し、円が買われやすい展開が続く。世界各地で株価の乱高下も目立っている。

There should be careful monitoring of whether the disarray in Cyprus indirectly hinders Abenomics, the economic policy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to revitalize Japan's economy.
　キプロス混迷が回り回って、経済再生を目指す安倍政権の経済政策「アベノミクス」に冷や水を浴びせないか。要警戒である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 23, 2013)
（2013年3月23日01時45分  読売新聞）