イタリア総選挙 欧州危機の再燃を招かないか

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Feb. 28, 2013)
Italy's political gridlock may reignite European crisis
イタリア総選挙　欧州危機の再燃を招かないか（2月27日付・読売社説）

Italy's latest election results indicate that Italians are strongly discontented with the government's fiscal reconstruction policy. The impending political turmoil threatens to ignite another crisis in Europe.
　財政再建路線に対するイタリア国民の強い不満が表れた結果だ。政局混乱で、欧州危機が再燃する恐れが出てきた。

In the general election in which the administration of Prime Minister Mario Monti sought a public mandate for its reformist policies, the anti-austerity center-right coalition led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi garnered more seats than anticipated.
　モンティ政権の改革路線の是非を問う総選挙で、反緊縮派のベルルスコーニ前首相の中道右派連合が、事前の予想を上回る議席を獲得した。

The center-left coalition that generally supports the reformist line secured a narrow majority in the lower house. But in the Senate no political group won a clear majority.
　下院では、改革路線を大枠で支持する中道左派連合が議席の過半数を辛うじて制したが、上院では、いずれの政党連合も過半数獲得には至らなかった。

Following the election results, the euro plunged on foreign exchange markets in Japan and the United States as the yen strengthened against the European common currency. Stock prices dropped across the board on global markets. These moves indicate a wariness over the prospect that the eurozone's third-largest economy could retreat from fiscal reconstruction.
　選挙結果を受け、日米の為替市場ではユーロが急落し、円高・ユーロ安が進んだ。世界各地の株式市場も軒並み株安となった。ユーロ圏３位の経済大国の財政再建後退に警戒感を示したものだ。

The administration that was established by economist Monti in autumn 2011 and consists of technocrats tried to trim fiscal deficits through tax hikes and pension reforms. It also launched structural reforms, including a legal revision to create a flexible labor market.
　２０１１年秋に発足した経済学者モンティ氏を首相とする実務者内閣は、増税や年金改革などで財政赤字の削減を図った。労働市場に柔軟性を持たせる法改正など構造改革にも乗り出した。

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Reforms fail to progress

Monti's reformist policies were received favorably by the markets but failed to make headway because they were not endorsed by center-right parties.
　市場の評価は高かったが、モンティ首相が進めようとした改革は、中道右派各党の支持を得られず、中途半端に終わった。

The center-right bloc was able to expand voter support by proposing such populist anti-austerity measures as a reexamination of the tax hikes.
　選挙で、中道右派連合は、増税見直しなど反緊縮の大衆迎合的な政策を掲げ、支持を広げた。

The bloc apparently obtained support from voters critical of the increase in the jobless rate caused by the business slowdown.
　景気後退に陥り、失業率が増加したことに批判的な国民の受け皿になったと言える。

A new party, which took existing parties to task over political corruption, fared well to become the third-biggest party. This reflects the people's deep-seated distrust of politics.
　一方で、既成政党の腐敗体質を批判した新党が第３党に食い込んだのは、国民の間に根強い政治不信を反映している。

A focal point in the days to come will be how the center-left bloc moves to form a coalition government. The prospects of a grand coalition with the center-right bloc are uncertain because of wide policy differences.
　今後の焦点は、連立交渉を試みると見られる中道左派連合の政権作りだ。しかし、中道右派との大連立は、政策の隔たりが大きく、先行きは不透明だ。

The political stalemate could possibly be broken by holding another election. However, Italy's political turmoil is expected to continue for some time.
　再選挙で打開を図る可能性もある。いずれにしてもイタリア政治の混迷は長期化しかねない。

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Bleak prospects ahead

It is highly questionable whether Italy will be able to stabilize its political situation.
　イタリアが、はたして政局を安定させられるかが問われよう。

Europe's fiscal and financial crisis, which was triggered by Greece, showed signs of abating after the European Central Bank purchased a large amount of government bonds and took other rescue measures since autumn.
　ギリシャに端を発した欧州の財政・金融危機は、昨秋以降、欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）による大胆な国債買い取り方針などで、ようやく沈静化の兆しが見えていた。

However, the economic situation remains extremely sluggish in the eurozone and has fallen into negative growth territory. Future prospects remain stormy.
　ただ、マイナス成長に陥ったユーロ圏では実体経済の低迷は深刻で、今後の展開も波乱含みだ。

Financial unrest is smoldering in Spain and suspicions of illegal donations to its ruling party have emerged. A general election is scheduled for September in Germany in which Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of the European crisis will become a bone of contention.
　スペインでは金融不安がくすぶり、与党への不正献金疑惑も浮上している。９月にはドイツで、メルケル首相の欧州危機対応が争点となる総選挙が控えている。

Italy's reforms must be prevented from falling by the wayside to avoid adversely affecting the world economy, let alone the eurozone.
　ユーロ圏全体はもちろん、世界経済に悪影響を与えないよう、イタリアの改革が頓挫する事態は避けなければならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 27, 2013)
（2013年2月27日01時27分  読売新聞）