地震想定見直し 首都の減災対策強化を急げ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Apr. 21, 2012)
Tokyo's disaster management plans need urgent upgrade
地震想定見直し　首都の減災対策強化を急げ（4月20日付・読売社説）

The current disaster management system for Tokyo, which experts say is at risk of being struck by a major earthquake, needs to be drastically reviewed.
　大地震の危険性が指摘されてきた首都・東京の防災体制を抜本的に見直す必要がある。

In the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Tokyo metropolitan government updated its estimates of the damage a major quake would cause for the first time in six years.
　東日本大震災を受け、東京都が地震被害想定を６年ぶりに更新した。

If a quake with its focus in northern Tokyo Bay strikes the metropolitan area, the estimated damage could cause a great number of deaths and injuries. New damage estimates show that 300,000 buildings--about 10 percent of all buildings in Tokyo--could be destroyed by the quake or resulting fires, and about 9,700 people could be killed in the disaster.
　直下型の東京湾北部地震が起きると、人的被害は最悪となる。都内の建物の約１割に相当する３０万棟が全壊・焼失して、約９７００人が死亡すると予測している。

The newly estimated death toll is about 1.5 times higher than the previous estimate of about 6,400. The predicted casualties are expected to be enormous.
　前回想定した死者数は約６４００人だったが、約１・５倍に膨れ上がった。甚大な被害である。

Such alarming figures have come to light as the latest seismology research predicts strong quakes could occur in an area about 1.5 times greater than previously thought. If the predicted quake occurs in this area, about 70 percent of Tokyo's 23 wards could be struck by tremors registering upper 6 or higher on the Japanese seismic intensity scale. As some areas could be hit by tremors of the highest intensity level of 7, even reinforced concrete buildings could be destroyed or damaged.
　地震学の最新研究で、強い揺れが予想される地域が約１・５倍に広がったことが深刻な数字につながった。２３区内の７割は震度６強以上で揺れる。震度７の地域もあり、鉄筋コンクリート製の建物さえ全壊するものがある。

Although the quake- and fire-resistance of buildings has improved, many buildings are expected to collapse and fires are predicted to break out particularly in areas of the 23 wards with high concentrations of wooden houses.
　住宅の耐震・耐火性は向上しているが、とりわけ、２３区内の木造住宅密集地域で倒壊、火災の多発が予測されている。

Earlier this fiscal year, the metropolitan government introduced a program that will require residents of certain areas to make their houses fire-resistant. It intends to designate areas subject to the program as early as this summer.
　都は、今年度から、こうした地域で耐火住宅への建て替えを強制的に進める制度を設けた。今夏にも、対象地区を選定する。

The metropolitan government must steadily make preparations to reduce damage from the predicted quake.
　被害を減らせるよう、着実に取り組まねばならない。

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Steps for those stranded urged

In the event of such a quake, about 3.39 million people could be forced to take shelter, mainly because their houses or apartments are badly damaged. The figure is about 10 times higher than the number of evacuees in the Great East Japan Earthquake. The new estimates also predict about 5.17 million people, such as workers in Tokyo, may be unable to return home.
　自宅の被災などによる避難者も約３３９万人にのぼる。東日本大震災の約１０倍だ。都内の企業で働く会社員ら約５１７万人が帰宅困難になるとも推計している。

To help people unable to return home, the metropolitan government last month enacted an ordinance calling on companies to store three days' worth of food and water that can be used in the event of a disaster. We hope companies will reliably comply with the ordinance. The metropolitan government should also increase cooperation with other entities, such as public transportation companies, lodging facilities and convenience stores.
　帰宅困難者対策について、都は３月、企業に３日分の水、食料の備蓄を求める条例を制定した。確実に履行してもらいたい。交通機関や宿泊施設、コンビニなどとの協力も強化すべきだ。

We also urge the metropolitan government to consider measures to assist shoppers and tourists who are in central Tokyo at the time of a disaster.
　都心を訪れる買い物客や観光客の支援も検討しておきたい。

The metropolitan government intends to work out new local disaster management plans--on which specific measures will be based--by September. With the aim of dependably minimizing damage from the quake, it must compile adequate plans.
　都は、９月までに対策の基本となる新たな地域防災計画を策定する。確実な減災を目指して計画をまとめねばならない。

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Specific preparations are vital

Many factors are difficult to predict when estimating quake damage for a major city.
　大都市での地震では、被害想定が困難なものも多い。

In the latest review, the metropolitan government simply listed the possible intensity of tremors in different areas. But it needs to be ready for more contingencies such as preparing for rescue and relief efforts in case community halls and other facilities, where many people gather, collapse. If a tsunami occurs in Tokyo Bay, ships could cause serious fires after being washed ashore.
　今回の見直しでは発生の可能性が列挙されているだけだが、例えば多数が集まるホールなどの倒壊に備えた救助・救援対策を事前に講じておく必要がある。東京湾で津波が起きれば、船舶が流され大規模な火災も起こり得る。

High-rise buildings in central Tokyo may suffer damage from long-period ground motion, which would cause them to sway slowly and severely.
　都心の高層ビルでは、ゆっくり大きく揺れる長周期地震動による被害があるかもしれない。

The central government also plans to draw up damage estimates for the entire Tokyo metropolitan area this winter. How can the nation maintain the operation of key government bodies, companies' headquarters and freight centers?
　政府も今冬、首都圏全域の被害想定をまとめる。首都圏に集中する政府中枢、企業の本社、物流の拠点を、どう維持するか。

We hope the government will take all possible measures, including coordinated steps with Osaka and other major cities, to prevent Japan's political system and economy from being paralyzed.
　日本の政治、経済をマヒさせないよう、大阪など主要都市との協力も視野に、万全を期したい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 20, 2012)
（2012年4月20日01時26分 読売新聞）