人民元改革 着実な切り上げで安定成長を

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Apr. 19, 2012)
China must revalue yuan to attain stable growth
人民元改革　着実な切り上げで安定成長を（4月18日付・読売社説）

China has expanded the yuan's trading band for the first time in five years. Yet, it must continue to steadily revalue its currency to help stabilize its economy.
　中国が人民元相場の変動幅を５年ぶりに拡大した。
　着実に人民元を上昇させ、中国経済の安定に役立てるべきだ。

From Monday, the People's Bank of China allowed the yuan to fluctuate by 1 percent above and below the rate set daily by the bank, double the previous 0.5 percent.
　中国人民銀行は今週、元の対ドル相場が１日に変動できる幅について、毎日決める基準値の上下１％幅に倍増した。

China's effort to give its currency more flexibility so it can fluctuate more actively is reasonable.
　これまでより相場が動きやすくなるよう、中国が元の柔軟化を目指すことは妥当だ。

Beijing expanded the band of yuan's fluctuations apparently because of mounting pressure from Washington, which has been saddled with a huge trade deficit with China. In the United States, where a presidential election will be held in November, criticism has been growing stronger that China is keeping its currency at unduly low levels.
　変動幅を拡大した理由は、巨額の対中貿易赤字を抱える米国が圧力を強めているためだろう。１１月の大統領選を控えた米国では、中国が元を不当に安く抑えているとの批判が高まりつつある。

The Chinese yuan may become a focal point of a meeting of financial ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 major economies opening in Washington later this week.
　今週末にワシントンで開かれる主要２０か国・地域（Ｇ２０）の財務相・中央銀行総裁会議でも、人民元問題が焦点になる見通しだ。

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Preemptive move

China's decision to give the yuan more flexibility was an apparent move ahead of the G-20 conference to show the world its willingness to promote currency reform.
　中国は先手を打って、人民元改革に取り組む姿勢を国際的にアピールしたと指摘できる。

However, the yuan failed to meet expectations as it fluctuated in narrow ranges on Monday, the first trading day, and Tuesday. The yuan closed at 6.3015 per dollar Tuesday, virtually unchanged from last week.
　しかし、取引初日となった１６日と、１７日の相場は小動きで、肩すかしに終わった。１７日の終値は、先週とほぼ同水準の１ドル＝６・３０１５元だった。

The Chinese monetary authorities plan to continue intervening in exchange markets by selling the yuan and buying the dollar to stem the sharp rise in the yuan's value.
　中国当局は従来通り、元売り・ドル買いの為替介入を続け、元の急上昇を抑える構えだ。

But China will not be able to correct the trade imbalance by carrying out such a token reform.
　改革へのポーズだけでは、貿易不均衡を是正できまい。

It is essential for China to raise the yuan's exchange rate to levels commensurate with its status as the world's second largest economy and structurally reform its economy.
　なによりも大事なのは、世界２位の経済大国に見合った元相場を実現し、中国経済の構造改革にもつなげていくことだ。

China's gross domestic product for the January-March quarter showed a moderate 8.1 percent increase over the same period the year before, marking a slowdown for five consecutive quarters and the lowest increase in about three years.
　中国の１～３月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の伸び率は、前年同期比８・１％増にとどまり、５四半期連続で減速した。約３年ぶりの低成長である。

The slowdown in China's economy was primarily caused by reduced exports to Europe, which is mired in a sovereign debt crisis. Beijing is trying to shift from an export-reliant economy to one led by domestic demand centering on personal consumption. However, this transformation has made little progress.
　景気減速は、財政危機に陥った欧州向けの輸出減少が主因だ。中国政府は輸出依存型から、個人消費などを中心にした内需主導型経済への転換を目指しているが、その変革は遅れている。

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Concern about inflation

Will China's economy slow down further or get back on the road to stable growth? It can be said the country is facing a crucial turning point.
　中国景気がさらに減速するか、安定成長に回復できるか、正念場にあると言えよう。

The country's consumer prices have been soaring, refueling concern about inflation. If the Chinese authorities flood the domestic market with an excessive money supply in their efforts to curb the yen's rise by selling the currency in exchange markets, inflation may accelerate.
(●これは誤植でしょうね＾＾to curb the yen's rise→to curb the yuan's riseプロでも間違えることもあるのです＾＾）
　一方、消費者物価が上昇し、インフレ懸念が再燃し始めた。中国当局が意図的に元の上昇を抑える元売り介入を通じ、過剰なマネーを国内にあふれさせると、インフレが一段と加速しかねない。

For this reason, China must make all-out efforts to control inflation by allowing the yuan's exchange rate to rise gradually. If prices become stable, it will widen the scope of options to carry out financial policies. It also will have the effect of reducing reliance on exports.
　だからこそ、中国は元の段階的な上昇を容認し、インフレ抑制に全力を挙げるべきだ。物価が安定すれば、金融政策の余地が広がる。輸出に頼り過ぎない経済への転換を後押しする効果もあろう。

High expectations are placed on China to help put the global economy, which is still reeling from the effect of the European fiscal debt crisis, and the Japanese economy on a stable path.
　欧州財政危機の余波が続く世界経済や、日本経済の安定に向けて、中国への期待は大きい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 18, 2012)
（2012年4月18日01時26分 読売新聞）