不安な世界経済 欧州危機の早期収束がカギだ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jan. 10, 2012)
Resolving European crisis key to buoying global economy
不安な世界経済　欧州危機の早期収束がカギだ（1月9日付・読売社説）

A somber new year has begun for the global economy, with no victory in sight in the battle to solve the financial crisis that started in Europe.
　欧州発の金融危機を克服するメドが立たないまま、世界経済の重苦しい新年がスタートした。

Can we prevent the crisis from spreading further and stave off a rapid slowdown in the global economy?
　危機拡大を防ぎ、世界景気の急減速を回避できるか。

Many hurdles lie ahead, and rough going is expected for the global economy.
いくつものハードルが待ち構え、波乱含みだ。

Last autumn, the International Monetary Fund forecast the global economy as a whole would grow 4 percent in real terms in 2012.
But it is highly likely the IMF will revise this projection downward to the mid-3 percent range as early as this month.
　国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は昨秋、２０１２年の世界経済について全体で実質４％成長と予想したが、１月中にも、３％台半ば程度に下方修正する公算が大きい。

The eurozone economy could log negative growth due to its financial crisis and fiscal austerity policy.
　金融危機と緊縮財政などに伴い、ユーロ圏はマイナス成長に陥りかねない。

The flagging economies in eurozone countries are expected to weigh down not only the United States and Japan but also emerging economies, including China, that have been enjoying robust growth.
An economic slowdown in those countries is considered unavoidable.
それが米国や日本だけでなく、好調だった中国など新興国の足も引っ張り、景気減速は不可避とみられている。

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Prevent economy from stalling
　◆景気失速を回避せよ

However, we must avoid a stall that could cause the global economy to nosedive.
　だが、世界景気が急激に落ち込むような失速は回避しなければならない。

To do so, it is critical to resolve the European crisis soon.
そのためには、欧州危機の早期収束が重要だ。

Last year, credit uncertainty triggered by Greece's lax fiscal management spread to countries such as Italy and Spain, which are saddled with massive fiscal deficits.
The market was unsettled and stock prices remained low.
　昨年は、放漫財政のギリシャが発端になり、巨額の財政赤字を抱えたイタリアやスペインなどに信用不安が飛び火した。市場は動揺し、株価が低迷した。

The euro became mired in its most serious crisis since its introduction in 1999.
　１９９９年の導入以来、最大のピンチに陥ったのが通貨ユーロだ。

The depreciation of the euro accelerated and it fell below 100 yen around the change of the year.
ユーロ安が加速し、年末から年明けにかけ、１ユーロ＝１００円を割り込んでいる。

In December, a summit meeting of the European Union, including countries that use the euro such as Germany and France, finally agreed on countermeasures whose main pillars include strengthening fiscal discipline in the respective countries.
　独仏などのユーロ導入国を含む欧州連合（ＥＵ）の首脳会議は昨年１２月、ようやく、財政規律の強化などを柱にした対策を決めた。

It is praiseworthy that Europe, which has always been reactive in dealing with the crisis, began taking action.
対応が後手に回ってきた欧州が動き出したことは評価できる。

However, bondholders continue to unload Italian and other European bonds, and their yields continue to rise. 　しかし、その後も、イタリアなどの国債が売られ、国債流通利回りは上昇傾向にある。

The Italian and Spanish governments will redeem a large amount of bonds.
イタリアとスペインが大量の国債償還を控えている。

The market appears to be increasingly wary over whether the two countries can get through the redemption.
それを乗り越えることができるかどうか、市場は警戒を強めているのだろう。

Major credit-rating agencies may downgrade the bonds of France and further cut their assessments of bonds of other European countries.
　大手格付け会社が、フランスなども含め、欧州各国の国債を一段と格下げする恐れもある。

There seems to be no end to the turmoil.
混乱の火種は消えない。

The EU's crisis countermeasures are still not powerful enough to dispel the financial concerns.
　ＥＵの危機対策は、金融不安の払拭にはまだ力不足である。

It is essential that European countries strengthen their solidarity and seriously work on crisis countermeasures.
欧州各国が結束を強め、危機対策に本気で取り組むことが肝要だ。

First and foremost, eurozone countries should steadily implement measures to support Greece, for which it would be unrealistic to drop the euro.
Countries such as Germany and France must fully support the country.
　ユーロ導入国はまず、ギリシャ支援策を着実に実行すべきだ。ギリシャのユーロ離脱は非現実的といえる。独仏などが全力で支えねばならない。

As a safety net, it is also urgent to expand the financial foundations of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which was agreed on at the summit meeting.
　安全網として、首脳会議が合意した欧州金融安定基金（ＥＦＳＦ）の資金基盤拡充も急務だ。

There is no time to waste in increasing the capital of banks that hold bonds of Italy and other European countries.
イタリア国債などを保有する銀行の資本増強も待ったなしである。

The role of the European Central Bank, known as the "guardian of the euro," is certain to grow.
　“ユーロの番人”の欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）の役割は増す。

We hope to see the ECB study the advisability of taking drastic steps such as expanded purchases of Italian government bonds.
イタリアの国債購入拡大など、大胆な策を検討してもらいたい。

The most fundamental problem with Europe is that individual European countries have been handling their fiscal policies separately, while employing a common currency.
　通貨は一つだが、財政はバラバラということが、欧州の根本的な問題だ。

European leaders have properly agreed on the need to beef up their countries' fiscal discipline, and on their mutual monitoring of fiscal conditions.
首脳たちが財政規律を強化し、互いに監視する方針で合意したのは妥当だ。

Now the question is whether Germany and France will be able to take concerted action to deepen European integration.
独仏両国が足並みを乱さず、欧州統合を深化させる行動力が問われよう。

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U.S. also on tightrope
　◆米国経済も綱渡り

Although the U.S. economy has begun to pick up slowly, it is still not on track toward a full recovery.
　米国経済は緩やかに持ち直しているが、本格回復は遅れている。

The high jobless rate in the United States is still hovering at about 9 percent, and it is unclear whether personal spending will continue growing in the new year.
失業率は約９％に高止まりし、個人消費の持続力は不透明だ。

If the United States is affected by a deterioration of the European economies, it could raise fears that U.S. business conditions will worsen.
　今後、欧州経済の悪化が波及すると、景気低迷も懸念される。

Furthermore, there are signs of a looming stalemate in the handling of U.S. fiscal and financial policy.
加えて、財政、金融の両政策とも手詰まり感が目立つ。

As the confrontation continues unabated between the ruling and opposition parties over ways to reduce fiscal deficits, a focus of attention in the U.S. political arena, additional business stimulus by President Barack Obama's administration seems hardly possible.
　焦点の財政赤字削減を巡る与野党の対立が続き、オバマ大統領の追加景気対策の実施は、事実上、困難になっている。

While it is urgently necessary for the United States to reduce its colossal fiscal deficits, excessive belt-tightening measures could dampen business activity.
　巨額財政赤字を抱える米国の財政再建も必要だが、過度な緊縮財政には、景気を冷やし過ぎる副作用もある。

As political maneuvering intensifies with the presidential election drawing near, Obama should give full play to his leadership in pursuit of a compromise plan with Congress over the fiscal woes.
大統領選に向け、与野党の駆け引きが激しくなる中、大統領は議会と妥協策を探る手腕を発揮してほしい。

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board has decided on the extraordinary policy of keeping its interest rate near zero until the end of the first half of 2013, but its effect on shoring up business activity is considered limited.
　一方で、米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）は、異例のゼロ金利政策を２０１３年半ばまで継続する方針を決めたが、景気下支えの効果は限定的とみられる。

The Fed should watch carefully how things evolve in the European debt crisis and the world's financial markets, as well as changes in the currently unstable U.S. economy, and should not hesitate to flexibly invoke new financial policies, such as further quantitative monetary easing.
　ＦＲＢは、欧州危機と金融市場の推移、不安定な米国景気などを注視し、一段の量的緩和策を含めて、機動的な金融政策の発動をためらうべきではない。

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Great hopes pinned on China
　◆中国への期待大きい

There are growing calls for solidarity among the Group of 20 economies, comprised of industrially advanced countries including Japan, the United States and European nations, and such emerging economies as China, India and Brazil.
　日米欧の先進国に、中国、インド、ブラジルなど新興国を加えた主要２０か国・地域（Ｇ２０）の結束も、改めて求められる。

In the wake of the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the G-20 successfully mobilized its members to coordinate fiscal and financial policy and ride out the global financial crisis that followed the U.S. investment bank's failure.
　０８年のリーマン・ショック後、Ｇ２０がそろって、財政と金融政策を総動員し、世界不況を克服した。

In particular, China should be given credit for playing a great role in overcoming the crisis by implementing a huge business stimulus program.
とくに巨額の景気対策を実施した中国の役割は大きかった。

The international community is now focused on how China, which has become the world's No. 2 economy, will contribute to coping with the current European debt crisis.
　焦点は、今や、世界第２位の経済大国になった中国が、今回の欧州危機に対し、どんな貢献ができるかだ。

One idea would be for it to buy a significant amount of bonds issued by the EFSF.
欧州のＥＦＳＦ債の積極的な購入は一案だろう。

The world is also placing hopes on China's steps to buoy its domestic economy, which has begun to show signs of a slowdown due to such factors as drops in exports to Europe.
　欧州向け輸出減などが原因で、減速傾向がでてきた中国経済の景気テコ入れ策も期待される。

Compared with Japan, the United States and European countries, China has considerably more room to hammer out fiscal stimulus measures and additional monetary easing.
　日米欧に比べると、中国は財政刺激策や、一段の金融緩和に踏み切る余地がある。

By maintaining stable economic growth with a flexible range of policies, China could help prop up the global economy.
機動的な政策で安定成長を維持することが、世界経済の下支えに役立つ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 9, 2012)
（2012年1月9日01時24分 読売新聞）