風知草：かすみ始めた「脱原発」＝山田孝男

(Mainichi Japan) August 22, 2011
Race to replace Kan as prime minister an opportunity to display national will, vision
風知草：かすみ始めた「脱原発」＝山田孝男

Denuclearization," or the idea of reducing and eliminating Japan's dependence on nuclear energy, is becoming increasingly hazy.
　「脱原発」がかすみ始めた。

As the countdown for Prime Minister Naoto Kan's resignation begins, many potential candidates for the next president of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) -- and hence the next prime minister -- are expressing their willingness to either maintain the current nuclear policy or to further promote nuclear power.
菅直人首相の退陣が秒読みに入り、原発の維持・推進に理解を示す後継候補が増殖している。

What I believe matters in the next DPJ presidential election is not so much whether Kan's successor is or is not a charismatic leader, but what his or her views are on the nuclear issue.
民主党代表選は、候補者の器量がＢ級かどうかよりも、この側面が重要だと思う。

In an essay titled "Gimon darake no Kan oroshi" (Calls for Kan to step down that leave a trail of doubts) that well-respected literary critic Norihiro Kato contributed to the Mainichi in the Aug. 11 Tokyo evening edition, Kato slams the lacking rhetoric of those who criticize the now anti-nuclear Kan.
　高名な文芸評論家が「疑問だらけの菅降ろし」と題する一文を毎日新聞に寄せ、脱原発首相に対する批判勢力の言葉の貧しさを酷評した（加藤典洋、１１日夕刊東京本社版）。

According to Kato, the most important political challenge we now face is the issue of nuclear power.
　それによれば、いま最大の政治課題は原発である。

Kan has explicitly put forth the new goal of denuclearization, but his detractors have not contributed any clear proposals short of maintaining the status quo, i.e. the promotion of nuclear power.
首相は脱原発という新しい価値を明示したが、反対派は現状維持（原発推進）以外に提案がない。

How to deal with a lack of electricity is a problem of economics.
足りぬ電力をどうするかは経済の問題だ。

Kan's critics have dodged the real work of much-needed political debate, working merely to undermine Kan's political efforts, Kato writes.
反対派は真に必要な政治論戦をサボり、首相の政治努力を空洞化しようとしているにすぎない－－という。

Indeed, successor candidates have shown acceptance toward the preservation of nuclear power plants. 　実際、後継候補たちは原発の維持に理解を示している。

Frontrunners in the race for DPJ presidency including Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, former Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Sumio Mabuchi and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda have respectively said: "It is realistic to amass nuclear power technology," "We will adopt the world's most stringent safety standards," and "It is dangerous to allow a simplistic notion of denuclearization to take a life of its own."
「原子力技術を蓄積することが現実的」（野田佳彦）、「世界最高の安全基準を策定する」（馬淵澄夫）、「短絡的な脱原発というイメージの独り歩きは危険」（海江田万里）……。

Some DPJ presidential hopefuls are in fact for denuclearization. But there's a sense that they're not as invested in it as Kan is.
　脱原発志向の候補もいるにはいるが、菅をしのぐまでの執念は感じられない。

"Corruptio" (corruption), a novel written by Jin Mayama and published in July, is set in the not-so-distant future in which a political realignment takes place in a post-quake Japan, resulting in a pro-nuclear coalition government.
　原発と政治を描いて話題の近未来小説「コラプティオ」（真山仁著、文芸春秋７月新刊）は、震災後の日本で政界再編が起き、原発推進派の連立政権が生まれるという話だ。

Under current circumstances, such a plot is not entirely unthinkable.
このイメージがあながち荒唐無稽（むけい）とも言えない現状なのである。

Kan doesn't seem to think that will happen, however. "I think we've come to a point of no return," he told an acquaintance. "But (denuclearization) is a major policy that affects the entire social structure. So in that sense, there's still a long ways to go."
　菅はどう見ているのか。知人の問いにこう答えた。
　「もう逆戻りできないところまできたとは思うんですよ。ただ、これ（脱原発）は、社会構造全部にかかわる大政策ですからね。そういう意味では、まだまだこれからですよ」

Asked whether he had any lingering regret about leaving his post, Kan responded, "If I waited until I had no more regrets, I'd have to continue (to be prime minister) for another 10 years.
　政権に未練はないかという質問には、「そんなこと言ったら１０年やってなくちゃいけない」。

" Kan is said to have read through Kato's essay, and said, "Somewhere out there, there are those who understand."
先に引いた加藤典洋の文章にも目を通しており、「見てくれている人は、見てくれている」と自負を語ったという。

It is not that post-Kan candidates are outright against denuclearization.
　「ポスト菅」候補の面々も脱原発を否定しているわけではない。

It's that their campaign strategies involve refraining from making any concrete pro- or anti-nuclear power statements.
脱原発とも原発推進ともつかぬ玉虫色へ逃げ込むことが選挙対策になっている。

Only with votes can they win the post of DPJ chief and prime minister.
代表（首相）の座も票次第。

One can imagine how one of these candidates-turned-prime minister will fare when he or she comes head-to-head with the pro-nuclear government-industrial complex.
察しはつくが、それで原発推進の官産複合体と相撲が取れるか。

Pro-nuclear advocates argue that the promotion of nuclear energy is a major trend around the world, with an unsophisticated Japan the only one left wavering.
　原発推進派の世界観にしたがえば「世界の主流は原発推進であり、青臭く迷っているのは日本だけ」である。

However, domestic distrust toward nuclear power has been smoldering respectively in the U.S., Russia, Britain and France.
だが、米露英仏といえども国内で原発不信がくすぶっている。

After all, one of the world's largest nuclear power plants -- with three times the output of Chernobyl -- in the world's third largest economic superpower had collapsed.
　なにしろ、世界３位の経済大国で世界最大級の原発（出力でチェルノブイリの３倍）が崩壊したのだ。

The world has watched as some 100,000 people have fled their homes because of government-sanctioned or voluntary evacuations.
世界注視の中、強制退去と自主避難を合わせ、１０万人が故郷を追われて流浪している。

There's no reason for Japan to speak about its future in hushed tones out of regard for those who are a part of some "major trend around the world."
「世界の主流」の皆様に気兼ねして小声で将来を語る必要など、どこにもない。

I also have a problem with the know-it-alls who remark the decision for denuclearization has already been made, and that all that remains is "just" a schedule for its implementation.
　「脱原発は決まった、後はスケジュールの問題だ」という訳知り顔の解説もひっかかる。

Sure, but who's actually going to do the scheduling?
ごもっともだが、そのスケジュールを誰が詰めるのか。

Setting a deadline for five years from now or 50 years from now is as different as denuclearization and the promotion of nuclear power.
刻限が５年と５０年では、脱原発と原発推進ほどの違いがある。

It is worrisome that we do not know where Ichiro Ozawa, who leads the biggest faction within the DPJ and has the power to make or break the election for party president, stands on nuclear energy policy.
　党内最大グループを率いて代表選を左右する小沢一郎元代表の原発観が不明な点も気になる。

Let us hope that he comes clean with his views.
明確にしてほしい。

The DPJ presidential race is not an election in which to select a leader "with common sense" to counteract Kan, who has been characterized as lacking in that area.
　これは「非常識な菅」の代わりに常識家を選ぶ選挙ではない。

Nor is the election one in which to select a puppet leader that can be manipulated by a former DPJ head.
元代表の操り人形を選ぶ選挙でもない。

Rather, the election is a chance to choose a leader who will challenge the pro-nuclear government-industrial complex, possessing both the will and ability to implement reforms.
原発推進の官産複合体に挑み、改革する意志と実力を備えた指導者を選ぶ。

The election must be seen and used as an opportunity to display Japan's national resolve to the world.
その国家意思を世界に示す機会にしなければならない。

(By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
（敬称略）（毎週月曜日掲載）

毎日新聞　2011年8月22日　東京朝刊