北朝鮮新体制 挑発への抑止は日米韓連携で

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Oct. 5, 2010)
Stay in step with U.S., ROK to deter N. Korea
北朝鮮新体制　挑発への抑止は日米韓連携で（10月4日付・読売社説）

Despite giving its leadership lineup a face-lift, the North Korean autocracy led by Kim Jong Il has not changed one jot in substance. Japan and other neighboring nations must keep an eagle eye on North Korea's behavior. We must keep our guard up against the secretive country.
　人事刷新で衣替えはしても、北朝鮮の金正日独裁体制の中身は何ら変わっていない。日本はじめ周辺国は、今後の動向を一層注視し、警戒を怠ってはならない。

The new leadership of the Workers' Party of Korea clearly shows the party congress held last week--the first in 44 years--was aimed at extending the life of the current regime.
　北朝鮮が発表した党指導部人事の全容を見れば、４４年ぶりの党代表者会の狙いが、現体制の延命にあったことは明らかだ。

The first election in 30 years of members of the party's Central Committee was held, and the committee held a general meeting for the first time in 17 years to elect Politburo and Secretariat members.
　党中央委員を選挙したのは３０年ぶりのことだ。１７年ぶりに党中央委員会総会を開いて、政治局や書記局のメンバーも選出した。

The average age of members of the Politburo, the party's supreme organ, is nearly 80. Installing party elders in lofty party positions is intended to make them compete in showing their allegiance to Kim Jong Il, the party's secretary general. This could be a key to stabilizing the regime. Kim also shrewdly installed his right-hand men from his generation in key positions.
　党最高幹部の政治局員の平均年齢は８０歳近い。高齢の長老たちを手厚く処遇することで、金正日総書記への忠誠を競わせる。それが、体制を安定させる秘訣(ひけつ)なのだろう。総書記は要所には、ぬかりなく同年代の腹心を配した。

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Kim Jong Un unveiled

In the days leading up to the Congress, all eyes had been on Kim's third son, Kim Jong Un, who was anointed a general in the Korean People's Army and a vice chairman of the party's Central Military Commission, even though he is just 27.
　注目された総書記の三男、金正恩氏は、軍の大将という肩書を与えられ、２７歳の若さで、いきなり党中央軍事委員会の副委員長に抜擢(ばってき)された。

Awarding Kim Jong Un these posts represents his de facto appointment as Kim Jong Il's successor. Nevertheless, his appointment as a Politburo and Secretariat member was put off. His tender age might be the reason for that.
　だが、事実上の後継指名にもかかわらず、正恩氏の政治局入りと書記就任は見送られた。若すぎるという理由からかもしれない。

Details and images of Kim Jong Un had been closely guarded. After his appointments were announced, North Korea made video images of him public for the first time. Kim Jong Un bears a strong resemblance to his late grandfather Kim Il Sung, who has been deified as North Korea's "eternal leader." Kim Jong Il is seeking to rebuild the party and set the stage for the third generation of hereditary succession on the coattails of his father.
　秘密のベールに包まれていたその姿も、初めて公開された。風貌(ふうぼう)は、「永遠の主席」と神格化されている祖父の故金日成主席にそっくりだ。金総書記は、初代の威光を背景に党を立て直し、権力の３代世襲を図ろうとしている。

As North Korea goes through a period of power transition, there are concerns it could resort to military adventurism to demonstrate Kim Jong Un's presence as a military leader both at home and abroad.
　権力移行期にある北朝鮮が、軍指導者の正恩氏の存在感を内外に示すために、冒険主義に走らないか。警戒すべきはこの点だ。

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Military provocation feared

A South Korean naval ship was sunk in March, and Seoul has concluded the sinking was caused by a North Korean torpedo.
　３月には、韓国政府が、北朝鮮による魚雷攻撃による、と結論づけた韓国海軍哨戒艦の沈没事件が起きている。

In the latest personnel reshuffle, Ri Yong Ho, the army chief of staff, marked his extraordinary rise by being named to the Politburo presidium and a vice chairman of the party's Central Military Commission. This suggests North Korea could resort to similar provocations to display its military power.
　今回の人事で、李英●・軍総参謀長が破格の昇進を遂げ、政治局常務委員と中央軍事委員会副委員長の要職に起用された。軍の実績を誇示しようと、同様の挑発行動に出る可能性があろう。（●は、金ヘンに「高」）

There is concern that Kim Jong Il's regime, which has been unable to overcome severe economic shortcomings, will instead play to its military strengths, such as by conducting a third nuclear test or test-firing a ballistic missile, to fortify party solidarity and gain leverage in talks with Washington. In fact, a North Korean delegate to the United Nations recently reasserted his country should reinforce its nuclear deterrent.
　経済の窮状を打開できない金正日体制が、求心力の回復や対米交渉をにらみ、３度目の核実験や、弾道ミサイル発射など、軍事的な成果を狙う懸念もある。事実、国連で北朝鮮代表は、核抑止力を強化する姿勢を改めて強調した。

Japan needs to exchange more information and devise pragmatic measures with the United States and South Korea concerning the future moves of North Korea.
　今後の北朝鮮の動向をめぐり、日本は、米国や韓国との間で、情報交換や実効性ある対策作りを進めていく必要がある。

Unity among its neighbors could be the prime deterrent to any North Korean recklessness. Cooperation with Beijing is important, but Japan cannot rely on China right now. The most urgent task is to bolster cooperation between Japan, the United States and South Korea.
　対北朝鮮抑止のかぎとなるのは周辺国の結束だ。中国と協調することは重要だが、いま、それをあてにすることはできない。日米韓の連携強化こそ最優先課題だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 4, 2010)
（2010年10月4日01時03分 読売新聞）