The Yomiuri Shimbun (Feb. 4, 2012)
Egypt must rebuild economy by building democracy
エジプト議会 民主化遂行で経済立て直しを（2月3日付・読売社説）
An important milestone has been achieved in Egypt's progress toward democracy.
民主化への重要な一里塚である。
An election for the People's Assembly, or lower house of parliament, has been carried out, with a political party founded by the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic fundamentalist organization, emerging as the biggest winner.
エジプトで、人民議会（下院）選が行われ、イスラム原理主義組織「ムスリム同胞団」が設立した政党が第１党となった。
After the overthrow in February last year of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak, the transfer to civilian government has been progressing under the provisional rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.
１年前のムバラク政権崩壊後、軍最高評議会の暫定統治下で、民政移行プロセスが進行中だ。
Another major advance for democratization is the fact that the National Emergency Law, which granted overwhelming powers to the police, was lifted in principle for the first time in about 30 years in the wake of the lower house election.
下院選後、警察に絶大な権限を与えた「非常事態法」が約３０年ぶりに原則的に解除されたのも前進だ。
The Muslim Brotherhood had been banned from engaging in political activities under the Mubarak regime, although it garnered considerable public support through its benevolent activities, such as providing medical services to the poor.
ムスリム同胞団は、貧困層への慈善や医療活動などで社会に浸透していたが、旧政権下で弾圧され政治活動を禁じられていた。
===
Thorny road to power shift
This time, however, it was free to take part in the parliamentary election, fielding candidates of its own party, the Freedom and Justice Party.
しかし、今回は自前の政党「自由公正党」を押したてて議会選に臨むことができた。
The party won nearly a half of the lower house seats, and its secretary general has been elected speaker of the lower chamber.
下院では定数の半数近い議席を獲得し、党幹事長が下院議長に選ばれた。
Nevertheless, there are a mountain of challenges that must be resolved before the shift from the provisional rule to a civilian government can be realized.
とはいえ、民政移行まで踏むべきステップは多い。
If the ongoing election of the upper house, or Shura (Consultative) Council of the legislature, is concluded in February as scheduled, the two chambers are to set up a 100-member panel to draft a constitution. The draft of the new constitution will then be put to a national referendum, and a new president is to be elected by the end of June.
いま行われている上院選が２月中に終われば、議会は憲法起草委員会を設置する。新憲法案が国民投票にかけられ、６月末までに大統領選が行われる予定だ。
There are fears that the process of writing the new constitution may be hard going, as it will face such issues as the powers and duties of the president and parliament, what role the military should play and to what extent the constitution should reflect Islamic teachings.
憲法の中身をめぐっては、大統領と国会の役割や、軍の位置づけのほか、イスラム色がどこまで反映されるか、などが議論のポイントで、難航する恐れもある。
This is because while many young Egyptians have been seeking an immediate end to military rule, many others still pin their hopes on the military as a source of stability during the transition.
国内には、若者層を中心に軍政の即時終結を求める声もあるが、安定を保障する存在として軍に信望を寄せる国民も多いからだ。
How relations develop between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood is said to be of key significance to Egypt's political future.
軍とムスリム同胞団の関係が、今後の政治動向のカギを握ると言えよう。
If the two remain hostile to each other, as they did in the Mubarak era, the country's politics can hardly move forward.
旧政権下のように、互いに敵対していては、政治は前に進むまい。
Reconciliation and compromise between the two forces are indispensable for averting confusion.
混乱の回避へ、歩み寄りが求められる。
The military and the Muslim Brotherhood also have a responsibility to buckle down to the task of rehabilitating the Egyptian economy.
軍とムスリム同胞団には、経済再建に取り組む責任もある。
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Islamic strength on rise
The economic downturn in Egypt ever since last year's political upheaval has been serious, resulting from such causes as sharp declines in the number of tourists.
昨年の政変以降、観光客が激減するなど、経済の落ち込みは深刻だ。
The military rulers have acknowledged the need for support from the International Monetary Fund and have entered negotiations with the IMF on specific aid plans.
軍政は、国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）による支援の必要性を認め、協議に入った。
The Muslim Brotherhood is committed to efforts to make Islamic values compatible with a market economy.
ムスリム同胞団は、イスラムの価値観と市場経済の両立を目指し、
For example, it has indicated it is in favor of adopting a policy of exempting foreign tourists from the Islamic ban on drinking.
外国人観光客にまで禁酒を強いるような戒律の強制はしない方針を示唆している。
This can be taken as a sign of pragmatism on the part of the Muslim Brotherhood in light of the importance of tourism to the Egyptian economy.
エジプト経済における観光の重みを踏まえた、現実路線の表れに違いない。
In parliament, the Freedom and Justice Party is reportedly groping for ways to formulate an alliance with secular political parties.
議会では、自由公正党は世俗派政党との連携を模索中だ。
Attention is being paid to whether the FJP and secular parties can reach an agreement on basic policy matters.
基本政策で合意はできるのかどうか。
In the Middle East and North Africa, where the storm of transformations called the "Arab Spring" has been blowing, the power of Islamist forces has been on the rise along with moves for democratization.
「アラブの春」と呼ばれる変革の波に洗われる中東・北アフリカ地域では、民主化に伴い、イスラム主義勢力が台頭している。
The Muslim Brotherhood's moves from now on will likely serve as a litmus test about whether democracy can take root in these regions.
エジプトのムスリム同胞団の動向は、この地域で民主化が定着するか否かを占う試金石になろう。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 3, 2012)
（2012年2月3日01時19分 読売新聞）
2012/02/05
2012/02/04
社説：沖縄防衛局長 選挙介入が常態なのか
(Mainichi Japan) February 2, 2012
Editorial: Gov't intervention in Okinawa election unacceptable
社説：沖縄防衛局長 選挙介入が常態なのか
The chief of the Defense Ministry's Okinawa Defense Bureau was recently found to have held a "lecture" for bureau employees about the upcoming Feb. 12 Ginowan mayoral election. It emerged that the bureau had earlier made a list of voters pertaining to employees and their relatives living in the city, which houses the United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.
防衛省沖縄防衛局が沖縄県宜野湾市長選（１２日投開票）の「有権者リスト」を作成し、真部朗（まなべろう）局長が職員に「講話」を行っていた。
The actions of the bureau and its chief, Ro Manabe, constitute electoral intervention by the government, which is unacceptable.
政府機関による選挙への介入とも言うべきもので、言語道断である。
The revelations came after a Japanese Communist Party legislator raised the issue in the Diet.
共産党が国会で取り上げて明らかになった。
The ensuing survey by the Defense Ministry has disclosed that the Okinawa Defense Bureau compiled a list of its employees living in Ginowan as well as employees who have relatives in the city -- whose numbers totaled 80 -- at the instruction of Manabe.
Employees on the list were gathered for his lecture, in which he called on them to vote in the upcoming mayoral election.
防衛省の調査によると、真部局長の指示で同市在住の職員や同市に親族がいる職員８０人のリストを作り、職員への講話で市長選への投票を呼び掛けていた。
During the lecture, Manabe reportedly introduced the profiles of those who were expected to throw their hats in the mayoral race and pointed out that the will of Ginowan residents is important as the city hosts the Futenma air base.
講話では、市長選立候補予定者を紹介し、米軍普天間飛行場を抱える宜野湾市民の民意が重要であることなどを指摘したという。
Although the Defense Ministry survey concluded that the local bureau chief did not "support any specific potential candidate," no record of the content of the lecture exists to back up the finding.
「特定の立候補予定者を支持する内容は確認されなかった」との調査結果だが、講話内容の記録はない。
The Public Offices Election Law prohibits any election campaign that utilizes the position of a national public servant, while the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) Law strictly regulates political activities by SDF personnel, including civilian members.
公選法は、国家公務員による地位を利用した選挙運動を禁じ、自衛隊法は、文官を含む自衛隊員の政治的行為を厳しく制限している。
The outcome of the Ginowan mayoral election will have a major impact on the planned relocation of the Futenma base to the Henoko district of Nago in Okinawa Prefecture.
宜野湾市長選の行方は、普天間移設問題にも大きな影響を与える。
If a lecture is given about potential candidates shortly before the election, it is only natural for attendants to think that the lecture hints at endorsing a prospective candidate favoring the government's policy on the base issue -- even if no direct mention is made about supporting a specific person.
その選挙直前に候補予定者などについて講話を行えば、特定候補予定者への支持に直接、言及がなかったとしても、基地問題の政府方針に都合がよい候補予定者の後押しに含意がある、と受け取るのが普通だろう。
Okinawans have erupted in anger time and again over government blunders relating to the Futenma relocation issue.
These include inappropriate remarks by a former head of the Okinawa Defense Bureau and gaffes by former Defense Minister Yasuo Ichikawa in the Diet.
普天間をめぐっては、前沖縄防衛局長の不適切発言、前防衛相の国会答弁などが沖縄の怒りを買った。
Manabe's words and actions only add fuel to the fire and are set to deepen Okinawans' distrust in the government and make it even harder to settle the base issue. The local bureau chief, as a matter of course, should be sacked.
真部局長の言動が沖縄の不信を増幅させ、問題解決を一層難しくすることは明らかだ。更迭が当然である。
It should be noted that Manabe had also given lectures ahead of two elections in Nago -- the Nago mayoral election in January 2010 and the Nago Municipal Assembly election in September that year -- both of which focused on whether the city would agree to hosting the functions of the Futenma base.
見逃せないのは、真部局長がかつて、政府が普天間の移設先とする同県名護市の選挙でも講話を行っていたことである。名護市では１０年１月に市長選、同９月に市議選があり、普天間移設受け入れが争点になっていた。
Manabe gave the lectures in his capacity as head of the Okinawa Defense Bureau.
当時の沖縄防衛局長は真部氏だった。
The government should also investigate the timing and other details of these lectures.
政府はこの講話の時期や実態についても調査すべきだ。
When a referendum on whether to accept a plan to construct an offshore heliport in Nago in connection with the Futenma relocation was held in December 1997, employees of the Naha Defense Facilities Administration Bureau staged a de facto vote-gathering campaign by visiting voters door-to-door and distributing brochures -- drawing criticism from local residents.
同市では９７年１２月、普天間移設に絡んで海上ヘリポート建設計画の是非を問う市民投票が実施されたが、那覇防衛施設局の職員が戸別訪問やパンフレット配布などで事実上の集票活動を展開、地元で批判を浴びたことがある。
If such interventions in elections and other events are found to have repeatedly taken place, they should be regarded as a structural problem.
選挙などへの介入が繰り返し行われていたとすれば、構造的問題である。
Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka, who has supervision over such issues, has been blasted over his poor remarks. Regarding the frequency of U.S. military helicopter flights around the Futenma base, for example, he said, "There aren't so many (helicopters), are there?" He has also been targeted over repeated apologies and corrections during Diet sessions.
これらの問題を監督する田中直紀防衛相は、普天間周辺での米軍ヘリ飛行について「そんなに多くないのでは」と発言、国会答弁でも訂正、陳謝を繰り返すなど、拙劣な発言と対応が目立つ。
The opposition parties have questioned Tanaka's qualifications as defense minister.
野党からは資質を問う声も出ている。
The government faces a crucial test in discontinuing use of the Futenma base at its present location and removing the danger posed to residents in the vicinity.
普天間飛行場の固定化（継続使用）を回避し、周辺住民の危険性を除去するために、政府は今後、正念場を迎える。
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda should rise to the forefront and do his utmost to resolve the Futenma issue.
ここは、野田佳彦首相が前面に立って、普天間問題の解決に全力を尽くすしかない。
Editorial: Gov't intervention in Okinawa election unacceptable
社説：沖縄防衛局長 選挙介入が常態なのか
The chief of the Defense Ministry's Okinawa Defense Bureau was recently found to have held a "lecture" for bureau employees about the upcoming Feb. 12 Ginowan mayoral election. It emerged that the bureau had earlier made a list of voters pertaining to employees and their relatives living in the city, which houses the United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.
防衛省沖縄防衛局が沖縄県宜野湾市長選（１２日投開票）の「有権者リスト」を作成し、真部朗（まなべろう）局長が職員に「講話」を行っていた。
The actions of the bureau and its chief, Ro Manabe, constitute electoral intervention by the government, which is unacceptable.
政府機関による選挙への介入とも言うべきもので、言語道断である。
The revelations came after a Japanese Communist Party legislator raised the issue in the Diet.
共産党が国会で取り上げて明らかになった。
The ensuing survey by the Defense Ministry has disclosed that the Okinawa Defense Bureau compiled a list of its employees living in Ginowan as well as employees who have relatives in the city -- whose numbers totaled 80 -- at the instruction of Manabe.
Employees on the list were gathered for his lecture, in which he called on them to vote in the upcoming mayoral election.
防衛省の調査によると、真部局長の指示で同市在住の職員や同市に親族がいる職員８０人のリストを作り、職員への講話で市長選への投票を呼び掛けていた。
During the lecture, Manabe reportedly introduced the profiles of those who were expected to throw their hats in the mayoral race and pointed out that the will of Ginowan residents is important as the city hosts the Futenma air base.
講話では、市長選立候補予定者を紹介し、米軍普天間飛行場を抱える宜野湾市民の民意が重要であることなどを指摘したという。
Although the Defense Ministry survey concluded that the local bureau chief did not "support any specific potential candidate," no record of the content of the lecture exists to back up the finding.
「特定の立候補予定者を支持する内容は確認されなかった」との調査結果だが、講話内容の記録はない。
The Public Offices Election Law prohibits any election campaign that utilizes the position of a national public servant, while the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) Law strictly regulates political activities by SDF personnel, including civilian members.
公選法は、国家公務員による地位を利用した選挙運動を禁じ、自衛隊法は、文官を含む自衛隊員の政治的行為を厳しく制限している。
The outcome of the Ginowan mayoral election will have a major impact on the planned relocation of the Futenma base to the Henoko district of Nago in Okinawa Prefecture.
宜野湾市長選の行方は、普天間移設問題にも大きな影響を与える。
If a lecture is given about potential candidates shortly before the election, it is only natural for attendants to think that the lecture hints at endorsing a prospective candidate favoring the government's policy on the base issue -- even if no direct mention is made about supporting a specific person.
その選挙直前に候補予定者などについて講話を行えば、特定候補予定者への支持に直接、言及がなかったとしても、基地問題の政府方針に都合がよい候補予定者の後押しに含意がある、と受け取るのが普通だろう。
Okinawans have erupted in anger time and again over government blunders relating to the Futenma relocation issue.
These include inappropriate remarks by a former head of the Okinawa Defense Bureau and gaffes by former Defense Minister Yasuo Ichikawa in the Diet.
普天間をめぐっては、前沖縄防衛局長の不適切発言、前防衛相の国会答弁などが沖縄の怒りを買った。
Manabe's words and actions only add fuel to the fire and are set to deepen Okinawans' distrust in the government and make it even harder to settle the base issue. The local bureau chief, as a matter of course, should be sacked.
真部局長の言動が沖縄の不信を増幅させ、問題解決を一層難しくすることは明らかだ。更迭が当然である。
It should be noted that Manabe had also given lectures ahead of two elections in Nago -- the Nago mayoral election in January 2010 and the Nago Municipal Assembly election in September that year -- both of which focused on whether the city would agree to hosting the functions of the Futenma base.
見逃せないのは、真部局長がかつて、政府が普天間の移設先とする同県名護市の選挙でも講話を行っていたことである。名護市では１０年１月に市長選、同９月に市議選があり、普天間移設受け入れが争点になっていた。
Manabe gave the lectures in his capacity as head of the Okinawa Defense Bureau.
当時の沖縄防衛局長は真部氏だった。
The government should also investigate the timing and other details of these lectures.
政府はこの講話の時期や実態についても調査すべきだ。
When a referendum on whether to accept a plan to construct an offshore heliport in Nago in connection with the Futenma relocation was held in December 1997, employees of the Naha Defense Facilities Administration Bureau staged a de facto vote-gathering campaign by visiting voters door-to-door and distributing brochures -- drawing criticism from local residents.
同市では９７年１２月、普天間移設に絡んで海上ヘリポート建設計画の是非を問う市民投票が実施されたが、那覇防衛施設局の職員が戸別訪問やパンフレット配布などで事実上の集票活動を展開、地元で批判を浴びたことがある。
If such interventions in elections and other events are found to have repeatedly taken place, they should be regarded as a structural problem.
選挙などへの介入が繰り返し行われていたとすれば、構造的問題である。
Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka, who has supervision over such issues, has been blasted over his poor remarks. Regarding the frequency of U.S. military helicopter flights around the Futenma base, for example, he said, "There aren't so many (helicopters), are there?" He has also been targeted over repeated apologies and corrections during Diet sessions.
これらの問題を監督する田中直紀防衛相は、普天間周辺での米軍ヘリ飛行について「そんなに多くないのでは」と発言、国会答弁でも訂正、陳謝を繰り返すなど、拙劣な発言と対応が目立つ。
The opposition parties have questioned Tanaka's qualifications as defense minister.
野党からは資質を問う声も出ている。
The government faces a crucial test in discontinuing use of the Futenma base at its present location and removing the danger posed to residents in the vicinity.
普天間飛行場の固定化（継続使用）を回避し、周辺住民の危険性を除去するために、政府は今後、正念場を迎える。
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda should rise to the forefront and do his utmost to resolve the Futenma issue.
ここは、野田佳彦首相が前面に立って、普天間問題の解決に全力を尽くすしかない。
2012/02/03
社説：原子力新規制 既得権益の見直しも
(Mainichi Japan) February 1, 2012
Editorial: Nuclear regulatory reform must weed out entrenched interests
社説：原子力新規制 既得権益の見直しも
Bills relating to a shift in the nation's nuclear power policy were approved by the Cabinet on Jan. 31. In addition to the establishment of a new nuclear regulatory agency under the Environment Ministry, the government is aiming to legislate the lifespan of nuclear reactors, and require plant operators to outline specific measures against severe nuclear accidents.
政府は東京電力福島第１原発の重大事故を踏まえ原子力規制を転換するための法案を閣議決定した。環境省の外局として「原子力規制庁」を設置するほか、原発の寿命やシビアアクシデント（過酷事故）対策なども法律で義務づける内容だ。
Significant harm has been done by allowing the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), an administrative body tasked to regulate nuclear power safety, to exist under the umbrella of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), a major promoter of nuclear power.
これまで、原子力の安全規制を担う原子力安全・保安院が原発の推進を担う経済産業省に属していたことの弊害は大きい。
Divorcing nuclear regulation from nuclear promotion and centralizing regulatory duties into one agency stands to reason.
規制を利用から分離し、原子力規制庁に一元化するのは当然のことだ。
Changing the agency's name from the originally proposed "nuclear power safety agency" to "nuclear power regulatory agency" is likewise pertinent, considering the new agency's nature.
当初の仮称だった原子力安全庁を改め原子力規制庁とするのも、組織の性格を考えれば妥当だ。
However, the mere alteration of a name and rearrangement of an organization will not result overnight in a highly independent agency specializing in regulation.
ただし、表向きの名前を変え、組織を組み替えただけで、規制に特化した独立性の高い組織が一夜にしてできるはずはない。
Because many of the new agency staff members are likely to come from NISA, specific measures are necessary to secure the independence of the new body.
規制庁の人員の多くは保安院から横滑りすることになり、独立性を確保するための具体的な工夫が求められる。
It remains unclear how a nuclear safety investigation committee, envisaged in one of the bills approved by the Cabinet, will contribute toward ensuring the safety of nuclear power.
新たに設ける「原子力安全調査委員会」も、原子力の安全確保にどのように貢献できるのか、まだ判然としない。
Since the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC) lost the confidence of the Japanese public over its response to the ongoing nuclear disaster, the new committee cannot expect to gain it back without demonstrating its independence and competence.
内閣府の原子力安全委員会が今回の事故対応で信頼を損なっただけに、独立性と能力を国民に示せなければ不信はぬぐえないだろう。
The handling of the continuing nuclear crisis has been problematic particularly due to the government's lack of readiness, which has generated suspicions that the disaster could have been mitigated had the government been more capable of crisis management.
今回の事故対応では緊急時の危機管理に大きな問題があり、これが事故を拡大させた疑いがある。
Crisis management will be an important duty of the new regulatory agency, and must be attended to adequately.
危機管理は規制庁の重要任務であり、これにも十分に力を注ぐべきだ。
Meanwhile, some things have slipped through the centralization of regulatory responsibilities.
安全規制の一元化から取り残されている部分もある。
Safety research conducted by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and the inspections and other safeguards implemented by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to prevent the diversion of nuclear material toward the production of nuclear weapons will not fall under the jurisdiction of the new regulatory agency.
日本原子力研究開発機構が行う安全研究や、核物質が核兵器などに転用されることを防ぐために文部科学省が行う監視や査察（保障措置）は規制庁に移管されていない。
It remains to be seen how these tasks will be integrated into the new scheme.
今後の課題だ。
Included in the latest bills are the designation of a 40-year lifespan for nuclear reactors and the implementation of "back-fit" measures that would hold existing reactors to the latest technological standards.
今回の改正法案には、原発の寿命を原則４０年とすることや、最新の技術基準への適合を既存原発にも義務づける「バックフィット」が盛り込まれている。
The government claims that the combination of these two mandates would make it extremely difficult for reactors to continue running more than 40 years.
政府は、この両者をあわせることで４０年以上の運転は極めて難しいとの見方を示しているが、
The bills, however, include special exemptions allowing reactors to operate for up to 60 years.
最大で６０年まで延長できる例外規定も含まれている。
Stringent criteria must be set to prevent "exceptions" from undermining the rule.
なし崩しに運転が延長されることのないよう厳格な条件を設ける必要がある。
We hope also that the proposed legal reforms lead to a stronger nuclear disaster prevention scheme.
法改正による原子力防災体制の強化にも注目したい。
In the case of the Fukushima disaster, the off-site emergency response center failed to function.
今回の事故では緊急対策の拠点となるオフサイトセンターが機能しなかった。
A fundamental review of Japan's nuclear crisis preparedness is imperative.
抜本的な見直しは欠かせない。
Along with an expansion of disaster protection zones emphasizing nuclear disaster countermeasures, there is a pressing need to reassess national and regional disaster prevention plans.
原発事故に重点的に備える防災対策区域の拡大に伴い国や地域の防災計画の見直しも急務だ。
Numerous corporations and organizations make up the national framework that had heretofore promoted nuclear power, and their role in "amakudari" -- literally "descent from heaven," referring to the practice of former bureaucrats taking advisory posts in industries they previously regulated -- has been pointed out.
原子力を推進してきた国全体の構造の中には多数の法人や団体があり、天下りの弊害も指摘されている。
For effective regulations to gain ground, it is important to extend reform to such organizations with entrenched interests.
実効性のある規制を進めるためには、こうした既得権益を持つ組織や団体の改革もこの機会に併せて行うことが重要だ。
毎日新聞 2012年2月1日 東京朝刊
Editorial: Nuclear regulatory reform must weed out entrenched interests
社説：原子力新規制 既得権益の見直しも
Bills relating to a shift in the nation's nuclear power policy were approved by the Cabinet on Jan. 31. In addition to the establishment of a new nuclear regulatory agency under the Environment Ministry, the government is aiming to legislate the lifespan of nuclear reactors, and require plant operators to outline specific measures against severe nuclear accidents.
政府は東京電力福島第１原発の重大事故を踏まえ原子力規制を転換するための法案を閣議決定した。環境省の外局として「原子力規制庁」を設置するほか、原発の寿命やシビアアクシデント（過酷事故）対策なども法律で義務づける内容だ。
Significant harm has been done by allowing the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), an administrative body tasked to regulate nuclear power safety, to exist under the umbrella of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), a major promoter of nuclear power.
これまで、原子力の安全規制を担う原子力安全・保安院が原発の推進を担う経済産業省に属していたことの弊害は大きい。
Divorcing nuclear regulation from nuclear promotion and centralizing regulatory duties into one agency stands to reason.
規制を利用から分離し、原子力規制庁に一元化するのは当然のことだ。
Changing the agency's name from the originally proposed "nuclear power safety agency" to "nuclear power regulatory agency" is likewise pertinent, considering the new agency's nature.
当初の仮称だった原子力安全庁を改め原子力規制庁とするのも、組織の性格を考えれば妥当だ。
However, the mere alteration of a name and rearrangement of an organization will not result overnight in a highly independent agency specializing in regulation.
ただし、表向きの名前を変え、組織を組み替えただけで、規制に特化した独立性の高い組織が一夜にしてできるはずはない。
Because many of the new agency staff members are likely to come from NISA, specific measures are necessary to secure the independence of the new body.
規制庁の人員の多くは保安院から横滑りすることになり、独立性を確保するための具体的な工夫が求められる。
It remains unclear how a nuclear safety investigation committee, envisaged in one of the bills approved by the Cabinet, will contribute toward ensuring the safety of nuclear power.
新たに設ける「原子力安全調査委員会」も、原子力の安全確保にどのように貢献できるのか、まだ判然としない。
Since the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC) lost the confidence of the Japanese public over its response to the ongoing nuclear disaster, the new committee cannot expect to gain it back without demonstrating its independence and competence.
内閣府の原子力安全委員会が今回の事故対応で信頼を損なっただけに、独立性と能力を国民に示せなければ不信はぬぐえないだろう。
The handling of the continuing nuclear crisis has been problematic particularly due to the government's lack of readiness, which has generated suspicions that the disaster could have been mitigated had the government been more capable of crisis management.
今回の事故対応では緊急時の危機管理に大きな問題があり、これが事故を拡大させた疑いがある。
Crisis management will be an important duty of the new regulatory agency, and must be attended to adequately.
危機管理は規制庁の重要任務であり、これにも十分に力を注ぐべきだ。
Meanwhile, some things have slipped through the centralization of regulatory responsibilities.
安全規制の一元化から取り残されている部分もある。
Safety research conducted by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and the inspections and other safeguards implemented by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to prevent the diversion of nuclear material toward the production of nuclear weapons will not fall under the jurisdiction of the new regulatory agency.
日本原子力研究開発機構が行う安全研究や、核物質が核兵器などに転用されることを防ぐために文部科学省が行う監視や査察（保障措置）は規制庁に移管されていない。
It remains to be seen how these tasks will be integrated into the new scheme.
今後の課題だ。
Included in the latest bills are the designation of a 40-year lifespan for nuclear reactors and the implementation of "back-fit" measures that would hold existing reactors to the latest technological standards.
今回の改正法案には、原発の寿命を原則４０年とすることや、最新の技術基準への適合を既存原発にも義務づける「バックフィット」が盛り込まれている。
The government claims that the combination of these two mandates would make it extremely difficult for reactors to continue running more than 40 years.
政府は、この両者をあわせることで４０年以上の運転は極めて難しいとの見方を示しているが、
The bills, however, include special exemptions allowing reactors to operate for up to 60 years.
最大で６０年まで延長できる例外規定も含まれている。
Stringent criteria must be set to prevent "exceptions" from undermining the rule.
なし崩しに運転が延長されることのないよう厳格な条件を設ける必要がある。
We hope also that the proposed legal reforms lead to a stronger nuclear disaster prevention scheme.
法改正による原子力防災体制の強化にも注目したい。
In the case of the Fukushima disaster, the off-site emergency response center failed to function.
今回の事故では緊急対策の拠点となるオフサイトセンターが機能しなかった。
A fundamental review of Japan's nuclear crisis preparedness is imperative.
抜本的な見直しは欠かせない。
Along with an expansion of disaster protection zones emphasizing nuclear disaster countermeasures, there is a pressing need to reassess national and regional disaster prevention plans.
原発事故に重点的に備える防災対策区域の拡大に伴い国や地域の防災計画の見直しも急務だ。
Numerous corporations and organizations make up the national framework that had heretofore promoted nuclear power, and their role in "amakudari" -- literally "descent from heaven," referring to the practice of former bureaucrats taking advisory posts in industries they previously regulated -- has been pointed out.
原子力を推進してきた国全体の構造の中には多数の法人や団体があり、天下りの弊害も指摘されている。
For effective regulations to gain ground, it is important to extend reform to such organizations with entrenched interests.
実効性のある規制を進めるためには、こうした既得権益を持つ組織や団体の改革もこの機会に併せて行うことが重要だ。
毎日新聞 2012年2月1日 東京朝刊
2012/02/02
５０年後の人口―未来を変えるために
まずは草食系男子を鍛え直さなければなりません。
神様は男性が女性を征服するような身体（からだ）の構造（つくり）を与えられました。
外聞ですが、肉食女子が草食男子を餌食としているような話もあります。
ここは草食系男子を自衛隊、海保、警察学校等に入れて鍛え直さなければなりません。
自分の国は自分たちで守るというスタンスからも、良い政策となり得るのではないでしょうか。
戦後６０年、そろそろチェインジングの時期だと思いますが。如何でしょうか。
（スラチャイ）
--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 31
EDITORIAL: Demographic forecasts point to grim future for Japan
５０年後の人口―未来を変えるために
New forecasts about Japan’s population for the period until 2060, released on Jan. 30 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, paint a gloomy picture of the nation’s demographic future.
２０６０年までの新しい推計人口が、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所から発表された。
The speed at which the Japanese population will shrink in the coming decades is simply stunning. The number of Japanese will decrease by 41.32 million in the next half century to about two-thirds of the current figure, according to the forecasts.
日本の人口が減少する速さには驚くほかない。５０年間で４１３２万人減って、今の約３分の２になってしまう。
What should we do in response to these dire predictions?
この予測を前に、私たちはどう行動すればよいだろうか。
We should first take actions for the sake of our children.
まず、すでに生まれている世代に関する対応だ。
The number of people aged 65 or older will peak at 38.78 million in 2042, when the children of baby boomers join the ranks of the elderly.
６５歳以上は、団塊ジュニアが高齢期に入る４２年に３８７８万人となり、ピークを迎える。
That would be an increase of 9.3 million from now.
今より約９３０万人の増加だ。
It is necessary to improve and expand health- and nursing-care programs as well as livelihood support for elderly citizens.
医療や介護、生活支援の受け皿を整える必要がある。
An increase in the tax burden is unavoidable to finance these steps.
そのためには国民の負担が重くなるのは、やむを得ないだろう。
Meanwhile, the number of children aged 14 or younger will keep falling, down to 7.91 million in 2060, less than half of the current figure.
０～１４歳の子どもは一貫して減り続け、６０年には今の半分以下の７９１万人になる。
This age group will account for less than 10 percent of the overall population.
総人口の１割を切る。
The pace of the contraction of the young population will be slower than previously expected due to a slight rise in the fertility rate--the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime--in the past few years.
最近の出生率の回復傾向を反映し、減少のスピードは緩んだが、
But the trend toward fewer children will remain unchanged.
長期的な少子化の傾向は変わっていない。
The institute has estimated the fertility rate at 1.35, way below the 2.07 needed to keep the population from shrinking.
推計では１人の女性が産む子どもの数を１．３５と仮定している。人口減少に歯止めがかかる２．０７には遠く及ばない。
If the demographic trends remain unchanged, the ratio of people aged 65 or older to the overall population would rise to nearly 40 percent five decades down the road from around 23 percent now, according to the forecasts.
６５歳以上が人口に占める割合である高齢化率は、今は２３％ぐらいだが、このままだと５０年後には４０％近くまで上昇するというのが今回の推計だ。
Can we change the predicted demographic future of our country?
この未来を変えることができるだろうか。
If the fertility rate gradually rises until it stabilizes at 2.07 in 2030 onward, the percentage of senior citizens will peak in the 2040s in the 30 to 35 percent range, and then fall before stabilizing around 25 percent range over the long term, according to an estimate by Shigesato Takahashi, deputy director-general of the institute.
同研究所の高橋重郷副所長の試算によると、出生率が上昇していき、３０年以降２．０７で安定した場合、高齢化率は４０年代に３０％台前半でピークを打ち、長期的には２０％台半ばに落ち着くという。
That is a tough target to achieve.
高い目標ではあるが、
But growth of the child population would certainly stabilize the nation’s demographic structure.
子どもの数が増えれば、人口ピラミッドは安定する。
There is a huge difference in vitality between a society where one in every 2.5 members is an elderly citizen and a society where the ratio is one in every four.
高齢者が２．５人に１人か、４人に１人かで社会の活力は大きく違う。
What is especially notable is the fact that the number of women giving birth to a child at the age of 30 or older is larger than the number having a baby at younger than 30.
注目すべきは、母親の出産年齢で３０歳以上が２９歳以下を上回っていることだ。
The number of babies born to a mother aged 35 or older has increased by about 130 percent from 15 years ago.
３５歳以上での出生数は１５年前の約２．３倍に増えている。
This trend raises the question of whether more Japanese working women will decide to have a baby after building a career to some extent.
ある程度キャリアを積んだ後に子どもを産むという決断ができるか。
It is necessary to further improve the environment for women trying to raise children while working.
仕事をしながら子育てができる環境をもっと充実させなければいけない。
Although surveys show that nearly 90 percent of unmarried Japanese, both men and women, want to get married, the new demographic forecasts are based on the assumption that one in every five Japanese will not.
また、９割近くの未婚男女は結婚したいと考えているのに、今回の推計では５人に１人は結婚しないという前提を置いている。
Meanwhile, already married couples are not expecting to have the number of children they actually want.
すでに結婚しているカップルも、持ちたい子どもの数を実現できないでいる。
Behind these facts is widespread anxiety about economic future.
いずれも経済的な不安が背景にある。
From this point of view, policy efforts to improve the employment situation of young Japanese are very important.
若年層の雇用改善はこの点でも重要だ。
Each one of us Japanese living today is responsible to do what he or she can to change our society’s demographic future for the better.
将来を変える責任は今を生きる一人ひとりが負っている。
神様は男性が女性を征服するような身体（からだ）の構造（つくり）を与えられました。
外聞ですが、肉食女子が草食男子を餌食としているような話もあります。
ここは草食系男子を自衛隊、海保、警察学校等に入れて鍛え直さなければなりません。
自分の国は自分たちで守るというスタンスからも、良い政策となり得るのではないでしょうか。
戦後６０年、そろそろチェインジングの時期だと思いますが。如何でしょうか。
（スラチャイ）
--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 31
EDITORIAL: Demographic forecasts point to grim future for Japan
５０年後の人口―未来を変えるために
New forecasts about Japan’s population for the period until 2060, released on Jan. 30 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, paint a gloomy picture of the nation’s demographic future.
２０６０年までの新しい推計人口が、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所から発表された。
The speed at which the Japanese population will shrink in the coming decades is simply stunning. The number of Japanese will decrease by 41.32 million in the next half century to about two-thirds of the current figure, according to the forecasts.
日本の人口が減少する速さには驚くほかない。５０年間で４１３２万人減って、今の約３分の２になってしまう。
What should we do in response to these dire predictions?
この予測を前に、私たちはどう行動すればよいだろうか。
We should first take actions for the sake of our children.
まず、すでに生まれている世代に関する対応だ。
The number of people aged 65 or older will peak at 38.78 million in 2042, when the children of baby boomers join the ranks of the elderly.
６５歳以上は、団塊ジュニアが高齢期に入る４２年に３８７８万人となり、ピークを迎える。
That would be an increase of 9.3 million from now.
今より約９３０万人の増加だ。
It is necessary to improve and expand health- and nursing-care programs as well as livelihood support for elderly citizens.
医療や介護、生活支援の受け皿を整える必要がある。
An increase in the tax burden is unavoidable to finance these steps.
そのためには国民の負担が重くなるのは、やむを得ないだろう。
Meanwhile, the number of children aged 14 or younger will keep falling, down to 7.91 million in 2060, less than half of the current figure.
０～１４歳の子どもは一貫して減り続け、６０年には今の半分以下の７９１万人になる。
This age group will account for less than 10 percent of the overall population.
総人口の１割を切る。
The pace of the contraction of the young population will be slower than previously expected due to a slight rise in the fertility rate--the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime--in the past few years.
最近の出生率の回復傾向を反映し、減少のスピードは緩んだが、
But the trend toward fewer children will remain unchanged.
長期的な少子化の傾向は変わっていない。
The institute has estimated the fertility rate at 1.35, way below the 2.07 needed to keep the population from shrinking.
推計では１人の女性が産む子どもの数を１．３５と仮定している。人口減少に歯止めがかかる２．０７には遠く及ばない。
If the demographic trends remain unchanged, the ratio of people aged 65 or older to the overall population would rise to nearly 40 percent five decades down the road from around 23 percent now, according to the forecasts.
６５歳以上が人口に占める割合である高齢化率は、今は２３％ぐらいだが、このままだと５０年後には４０％近くまで上昇するというのが今回の推計だ。
Can we change the predicted demographic future of our country?
この未来を変えることができるだろうか。
If the fertility rate gradually rises until it stabilizes at 2.07 in 2030 onward, the percentage of senior citizens will peak in the 2040s in the 30 to 35 percent range, and then fall before stabilizing around 25 percent range over the long term, according to an estimate by Shigesato Takahashi, deputy director-general of the institute.
同研究所の高橋重郷副所長の試算によると、出生率が上昇していき、３０年以降２．０７で安定した場合、高齢化率は４０年代に３０％台前半でピークを打ち、長期的には２０％台半ばに落ち着くという。
That is a tough target to achieve.
高い目標ではあるが、
But growth of the child population would certainly stabilize the nation’s demographic structure.
子どもの数が増えれば、人口ピラミッドは安定する。
There is a huge difference in vitality between a society where one in every 2.5 members is an elderly citizen and a society where the ratio is one in every four.
高齢者が２．５人に１人か、４人に１人かで社会の活力は大きく違う。
What is especially notable is the fact that the number of women giving birth to a child at the age of 30 or older is larger than the number having a baby at younger than 30.
注目すべきは、母親の出産年齢で３０歳以上が２９歳以下を上回っていることだ。
The number of babies born to a mother aged 35 or older has increased by about 130 percent from 15 years ago.
３５歳以上での出生数は１５年前の約２．３倍に増えている。
This trend raises the question of whether more Japanese working women will decide to have a baby after building a career to some extent.
ある程度キャリアを積んだ後に子どもを産むという決断ができるか。
It is necessary to further improve the environment for women trying to raise children while working.
仕事をしながら子育てができる環境をもっと充実させなければいけない。
Although surveys show that nearly 90 percent of unmarried Japanese, both men and women, want to get married, the new demographic forecasts are based on the assumption that one in every five Japanese will not.
また、９割近くの未婚男女は結婚したいと考えているのに、今回の推計では５人に１人は結婚しないという前提を置いている。
Meanwhile, already married couples are not expecting to have the number of children they actually want.
すでに結婚しているカップルも、持ちたい子どもの数を実現できないでいる。
Behind these facts is widespread anxiety about economic future.
いずれも経済的な不安が背景にある。
From this point of view, policy efforts to improve the employment situation of young Japanese are very important.
若年層の雇用改善はこの点でも重要だ。
Each one of us Japanese living today is responsible to do what he or she can to change our society’s demographic future for the better.
将来を変える責任は今を生きる一人ひとりが負っている。
2012/01/31
風知草：首都地震、不安と油断＝山田孝男
(Mainichi Japan) January 30, 2012
Anxiety and inattention over Tokyo's next Big One
風知草：首都地震、不安と油断＝山田孝男
Last week, the possibility of a new political party being formed under the leadership of Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara emerged, but Tokyoites were more shocked by news indicating there was a 70 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake hitting the capital within four years.
先週、首都圏住民をギョッとさせたニュースは増税より石原新党より、「Ｍ（マグニチュード）７級の首都地震、４年以内に７０％」だった。
The news caused a stir because it was based on projections by the authoritative Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) at the University of Tokyo.
それも天下の東大地震研究所の試算だというので騒ぎになった。
I visited professor Naoshi Hirata, 57, director of the institute's Earthquake Prediction Research Center, thinking the institute's announcement daring.
But I soon learned that this figure was not an "announcement."
思い切った発表をしたものですね、と平田直（なおし）教授（５７）＝地震予知研究センター長＝に聞きに行って初めて知ったが、発表ではなかった。
The episode is very interesting.
このてんまつは興味深い－－。
An initial report on the likelihood of a major quake appeared in The Yomiuri Shimbun's Jan. 23 morning editions. 初報は読売新聞２３日朝刊だった。
In a front-page exclusive, the daily reported the news with the banner headline: "70% chance of magnitude-7 level Tokyo earthquake within 4 yrs.''
１面で「首都直下型／４年内７０％／Ｍ７級／東大地震研試算」と特報した（東京本社最終版）。
The Nikkei, The Tokyo Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun followed suit in their evening editions and The Asahi Shimbun and The Sankei Shimbun caught up with them in their Jan. 24 editions.
日経、東京、毎日が夕刊で追い、朝日と産経は２４日朝刊で伝えた。
All trailing dailies had almost identical headlines.
各紙とも見出しは読売と同じである。
TV stations quickly reported the news through their news departments as well as in other programs. テレビは報道部門だけでなく、各局ごとにいくつもある情報番組が一斉に反応した。
Overwhelmed by a barrage of reports by news organizations, the ERI published a special explanation online to account for the reasons behind the Yomiuri report.
オールマスコミの怒とうの攻勢に音を上げた地震研が、ホームページ上に読売報道の背景解説のための特設サイトを立ち上げたというのが実情だった。
Adding a twist to the saga was the fact that the ERI's study team had reported its predictions at an open forum last fall, and they were covered by the mass media.
しかも、地震研の研究チームのこの見解は昨秋、公開の研究発表会で報告され、報道もされている。
Looking back, the Mainichi Shimbun reported in its Sept. 17, 2011 editions that there was a 98 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake striking the metropolitan region within 30 years.
そう聞いて毎日新聞の縮刷版にあたると、はたして９月１７日朝刊３面に「首都圏直下／Ｍ７級／３０年で９８％」という記事があった。
According to Hirata, a 98 percent chance within 30 years and a 70 percent chance within four years mean the same thing.
平田によれば、「３０年以内に９８％」と「４年以内に７０％」は同じである。
But human beings, as they are, take the 30-year span lightly and are surprised by the four-year timeline.
だが、人間、３０年ならまだ先と侮り、４年と聞けば驚く。
The Yomiuri keenly restructured the publicized data and emphasized the period "within four years," causing a big public reaction and forcing other news outlets to follow suit.
読売は公表ずみのデータを鋭角的に再構成し、「４年以内」を強調したことで反響を呼び、他のマスコミも追随せざるを得なかった。
As I was looking into the circumstances surrounding the quake prediction story, the nonfiction book "The Great Kanto Earthquake," by Akira Yoshimura (1927-2006), occurred to me.
この経緯を調べて思い出したのが吉村昭（１９２７～２００６）のノンフィクション「関東大震災」である。
From the end of the Meiji era to the early Taisho period, Akitsune Imamura, an assistant professor of seismology at Tokyo Imperial University (now the University of Tokyo), predicted a Tokyo earthquake in newspaper and magazine articles.
明治の末から大正の初めにかけ、東京帝大地震学教室の今村明恒助教授は新聞・雑誌で首都地震を予言した。
But Fusakichi Omori, Japan's foremost authority on seismology and chairman of seismology at the national university, was worried about a commotion in society and tried to defuse public anxiety, resulting in a standoff with Imamura.
一方、日本の地震学の最高権威と仰がれた同教室の大森房吉主任教授は社会の動揺を懸念、火消しに努めて今村と対立した。
On Sept. 1, 1923, the magnitude-7.9 Great Kanto Earthquake devastated Tokyo and its vicinity. Omori lost face and died in frustration, while Imamura was catapulted into fame.
１９２３（大正１２）年、関東大震災（Ｍ７・９）が発生、面目丸つぶれの大森は失意の中で死に、今村の時代がくる。
But Imamura had sparked confusion when freely talking about earthquakes before eventually toning his warnings down.
今村は求められるまま奔放に発言して混乱が拡大、しだいに寡黙になっていく……。
The balance between earthquake predictions and reporting is delicate.
地震予知と報道の呼吸は微妙だ。
When I asked Hirata if the latest episode reminded him of the row between Omori and Imamura, he said with a wry smile, "It's not such a big deal."
大森・今村論争を意識したかと聞くと、平田は「そんな大それた話じゃない」と苦笑しつつ、こう言った。
"A magnitude-7 quake's energy is one thousandth of the (magnitude-9) Great East Japan Earthquake.
「マグニチュード７のエネルギーは東日本大震災（Ｍ９）の１０００分の１ですよ。
We did not predict an inland earthquake in the capital," Hirata says. "
首都直下と予測したわけでもない。
The reports tended to cause misunderstanding but were meaningful in that they sounded an alarm against inattention in the Kanto region.
誤解を招きやすい報道でしたけれども、関東地方の油断に警鐘を鳴らす意義はあった。
The chances of a big earthquake are greater than before and it is necessary to prepare."
大地震の発生確率は前より高まっており、備えは大事です」
At the outset of a news conference on Jan. 27, Tokyo Gov. Ishihara mentioned disaster-prevention steps, believing there would be questions about the University of Tokyo's predictions. However, none of the questions related to the earthquake predictions.
石原慎太郎・東京都知事は２７日の記者会見の冒頭、「どうせ質問が出るだろう」と先回りして防災を語ったが、質問はゼロ。
His 30-minute news conference solely covered questions about the new political party under consideration.
３０分の会見はすべて石原新党に費やされた。
The shocking reports about a 70 percent chance of an earthquake hitting the metropolitan area within four years didn't appear to make a dent at all at the news conference.
衝撃の「４年以内に７０％」報道とはいえ、その程度のものだった。
News reports are cues for people to become aware of inattention.
報道は油断に気づくきっかけに過ぎない。
The bottom line is how to react in an emergency situation.
いざという時、どう動くか。
Yoshimura's parents went through the Great Kanto Earthquake.
吉村昭は関東大震災を体験していないが、両親は被災した。
During U.S. air raids on Tokyo in the closing days of World War II, Yoshimura got yelled at by his father when he tried to flee with a pack on his back.
東京大空襲（４５年）でリュックを背負って逃げようとした時、その父に「手ぶらで逃げろ」と怒鳴られた。
Tales by survivors of the March 11 disasters and Yoshimura's books are filled with survival tips that cannot be found by looking to disaster-prevention goods.
３・１１を生き延びた人々の体験談や吉村の著作には、防災グッズでは得られないものが詰まっている。
(By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
毎日新聞 2012年1月30日 東京朝刊
Anxiety and inattention over Tokyo's next Big One
風知草：首都地震、不安と油断＝山田孝男
Last week, the possibility of a new political party being formed under the leadership of Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara emerged, but Tokyoites were more shocked by news indicating there was a 70 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake hitting the capital within four years.
先週、首都圏住民をギョッとさせたニュースは増税より石原新党より、「Ｍ（マグニチュード）７級の首都地震、４年以内に７０％」だった。
The news caused a stir because it was based on projections by the authoritative Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) at the University of Tokyo.
それも天下の東大地震研究所の試算だというので騒ぎになった。
I visited professor Naoshi Hirata, 57, director of the institute's Earthquake Prediction Research Center, thinking the institute's announcement daring.
But I soon learned that this figure was not an "announcement."
思い切った発表をしたものですね、と平田直（なおし）教授（５７）＝地震予知研究センター長＝に聞きに行って初めて知ったが、発表ではなかった。
The episode is very interesting.
このてんまつは興味深い－－。
An initial report on the likelihood of a major quake appeared in The Yomiuri Shimbun's Jan. 23 morning editions. 初報は読売新聞２３日朝刊だった。
In a front-page exclusive, the daily reported the news with the banner headline: "70% chance of magnitude-7 level Tokyo earthquake within 4 yrs.''
１面で「首都直下型／４年内７０％／Ｍ７級／東大地震研試算」と特報した（東京本社最終版）。
The Nikkei, The Tokyo Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun followed suit in their evening editions and The Asahi Shimbun and The Sankei Shimbun caught up with them in their Jan. 24 editions.
日経、東京、毎日が夕刊で追い、朝日と産経は２４日朝刊で伝えた。
All trailing dailies had almost identical headlines.
各紙とも見出しは読売と同じである。
TV stations quickly reported the news through their news departments as well as in other programs. テレビは報道部門だけでなく、各局ごとにいくつもある情報番組が一斉に反応した。
Overwhelmed by a barrage of reports by news organizations, the ERI published a special explanation online to account for the reasons behind the Yomiuri report.
オールマスコミの怒とうの攻勢に音を上げた地震研が、ホームページ上に読売報道の背景解説のための特設サイトを立ち上げたというのが実情だった。
Adding a twist to the saga was the fact that the ERI's study team had reported its predictions at an open forum last fall, and they were covered by the mass media.
しかも、地震研の研究チームのこの見解は昨秋、公開の研究発表会で報告され、報道もされている。
Looking back, the Mainichi Shimbun reported in its Sept. 17, 2011 editions that there was a 98 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake striking the metropolitan region within 30 years.
そう聞いて毎日新聞の縮刷版にあたると、はたして９月１７日朝刊３面に「首都圏直下／Ｍ７級／３０年で９８％」という記事があった。
According to Hirata, a 98 percent chance within 30 years and a 70 percent chance within four years mean the same thing.
平田によれば、「３０年以内に９８％」と「４年以内に７０％」は同じである。
But human beings, as they are, take the 30-year span lightly and are surprised by the four-year timeline.
だが、人間、３０年ならまだ先と侮り、４年と聞けば驚く。
The Yomiuri keenly restructured the publicized data and emphasized the period "within four years," causing a big public reaction and forcing other news outlets to follow suit.
読売は公表ずみのデータを鋭角的に再構成し、「４年以内」を強調したことで反響を呼び、他のマスコミも追随せざるを得なかった。
As I was looking into the circumstances surrounding the quake prediction story, the nonfiction book "The Great Kanto Earthquake," by Akira Yoshimura (1927-2006), occurred to me.
この経緯を調べて思い出したのが吉村昭（１９２７～２００６）のノンフィクション「関東大震災」である。
From the end of the Meiji era to the early Taisho period, Akitsune Imamura, an assistant professor of seismology at Tokyo Imperial University (now the University of Tokyo), predicted a Tokyo earthquake in newspaper and magazine articles.
明治の末から大正の初めにかけ、東京帝大地震学教室の今村明恒助教授は新聞・雑誌で首都地震を予言した。
But Fusakichi Omori, Japan's foremost authority on seismology and chairman of seismology at the national university, was worried about a commotion in society and tried to defuse public anxiety, resulting in a standoff with Imamura.
一方、日本の地震学の最高権威と仰がれた同教室の大森房吉主任教授は社会の動揺を懸念、火消しに努めて今村と対立した。
On Sept. 1, 1923, the magnitude-7.9 Great Kanto Earthquake devastated Tokyo and its vicinity. Omori lost face and died in frustration, while Imamura was catapulted into fame.
１９２３（大正１２）年、関東大震災（Ｍ７・９）が発生、面目丸つぶれの大森は失意の中で死に、今村の時代がくる。
But Imamura had sparked confusion when freely talking about earthquakes before eventually toning his warnings down.
今村は求められるまま奔放に発言して混乱が拡大、しだいに寡黙になっていく……。
The balance between earthquake predictions and reporting is delicate.
地震予知と報道の呼吸は微妙だ。
When I asked Hirata if the latest episode reminded him of the row between Omori and Imamura, he said with a wry smile, "It's not such a big deal."
大森・今村論争を意識したかと聞くと、平田は「そんな大それた話じゃない」と苦笑しつつ、こう言った。
"A magnitude-7 quake's energy is one thousandth of the (magnitude-9) Great East Japan Earthquake.
「マグニチュード７のエネルギーは東日本大震災（Ｍ９）の１０００分の１ですよ。
We did not predict an inland earthquake in the capital," Hirata says. "
首都直下と予測したわけでもない。
The reports tended to cause misunderstanding but were meaningful in that they sounded an alarm against inattention in the Kanto region.
誤解を招きやすい報道でしたけれども、関東地方の油断に警鐘を鳴らす意義はあった。
The chances of a big earthquake are greater than before and it is necessary to prepare."
大地震の発生確率は前より高まっており、備えは大事です」
At the outset of a news conference on Jan. 27, Tokyo Gov. Ishihara mentioned disaster-prevention steps, believing there would be questions about the University of Tokyo's predictions. However, none of the questions related to the earthquake predictions.
石原慎太郎・東京都知事は２７日の記者会見の冒頭、「どうせ質問が出るだろう」と先回りして防災を語ったが、質問はゼロ。
His 30-minute news conference solely covered questions about the new political party under consideration.
３０分の会見はすべて石原新党に費やされた。
The shocking reports about a 70 percent chance of an earthquake hitting the metropolitan area within four years didn't appear to make a dent at all at the news conference.
衝撃の「４年以内に７０％」報道とはいえ、その程度のものだった。
News reports are cues for people to become aware of inattention.
報道は油断に気づくきっかけに過ぎない。
The bottom line is how to react in an emergency situation.
いざという時、どう動くか。
Yoshimura's parents went through the Great Kanto Earthquake.
吉村昭は関東大震災を体験していないが、両親は被災した。
During U.S. air raids on Tokyo in the closing days of World War II, Yoshimura got yelled at by his father when he tried to flee with a pack on his back.
東京大空襲（４５年）でリュックを背負って逃げようとした時、その父に「手ぶらで逃げろ」と怒鳴られた。
Tales by survivors of the March 11 disasters and Yoshimura's books are filled with survival tips that cannot be found by looking to disaster-prevention goods.
３・１１を生き延びた人々の体験談や吉村の著作には、防災グッズでは得られないものが詰まっている。
(By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
毎日新聞 2012年1月30日 東京朝刊
中国人民元は世界の基軸通貨となることができるのか（インタビュー)
飽きもせず、英字新聞社説を毎日読むこと数年、日本の英字新聞だったら、相当のスピードで読めるようになりました。アジアの新聞だって、昔にくらべたら、随分読めるようにはなりました。
ワシントンポスト、ニューヨークタイムズの記事は難しいけれども、通常のスピードで読み下して、理解率５０％は超えています。
ですが、タイム紙になると、これは、まったく歯がたちません＾＾。ちなみに、スーチーさんの、ビルマよりの手紙（毎日新聞掲載）はタイム紙レベルなのです。辞書なしに理解することは、難しいのです。これは使っている単語のレベルが違うということでしょうね。
今朝は、朝日新聞の電撃インタビュー記事を一息に読み下しました。
↓
中国の経済担当カウンセラーに朝日新聞記者が電撃インタビュー、
中国人民元は世界の基軸通貨となることができるのか？
インタビュー骨子：
あと30年は米ドルの天下。
米国はドルを大量（無制限に）印刷できる世界で唯一の特権を手にしているので、ドルの安定に尽力すべき。
そうしないと、大量のドルを抱え込んでいる中国だって、大迷惑を被ってしまう。
中国は香港を窓口として、世界為替市場に積極的に参加はするが、完全自由化はまだ先のこと。
現時点で、アメリカの言うなりに人民元を解放する（変動相場）ことは、あまりにも中国にとって危険である。
日本は落ち目、経済状況は米国と同じで欧州より悪い。
ヨーロッパはそれなりに伝統があるので頑張ってもらいたい。挽回してもらわないと中国経済にも悪影響が出る。
中国の人民元はやがて世界の基軸通貨となるかも知れないが、それは30年以上あとの話だ。
それに向けた対策を徐々に、段階的に切り替えて対策をとっていく。
西洋の急激なききめのある薬ではなくって、漢方薬のようにじっくりと効き目が後からついてくるような政策を展開する。
中国人民元に象徴されるアジア通貨が世界の基軸通貨となるのが理想的だが、それには時間がかかる。
アジア諸国は欧州と比べると歴史的な問題をかかえているし、政治の体系も異なっている。さらに経済の発展の度合いは国によりまちまちである。それでも、今後はアジアが経済の中心となって行くのは間違いのないところではある。アジア諸国が一致協力して、為替の安定を図り、経済的に発展していくことを願う。
（スラチャイ）
January 28, 2012
INTERVIEW/ Xia Bin: China’s senior economic advisor talks about strategy to promote renminbi
中国人民元は世界の基軸通貨となることができるのか（インタビュー)
By KEIKO YOSHIOKA / Correspondent
The global currency market is in a state of flux, as the euro is in serious trouble and international confidence in the dollar is also eroding. The outlook for the yen, which has appreciated sharply against the two leading currencies, is also murky because of Japan's mounting economic woes.
Amid this currency turmoil, China's renminbi is attracting increasing international attention as the unit of a country expected to eventually become an economic superpower rivaling or even surpassing the United States. Is Beijing maneuvering to make the renminbi a world currency that challenges the greenback for world hegemony?
In a recent interview with The Asahi Shimbun, Xia Bin, a councilor of the State Council who served as top official at the country's central bank and securities regulatory body and is now advising Premier Wen Jiabao, discussed Beijing's strategy to raise the currency's international stature. Excerpts of the interview follow.
Q: Since the global financial crisis started in 2008, the Chinese government has been calling for reform of the international currency regime. What are your complaints?
Xia Bin: The problem is the instability of the dollar. Since the dollar is the key reserve currency, the United States can borrow as much money as it wants from the rest of the world. Unlike other debt-ridden countries, the U.S. doesn't go bankrupt because it can pay back its debt by printing dollars. Since the U.S has such an exclusive privilege it has the obligation to ensure the stability of the dollar. But the country has kept running a current-account deficit (which works to depress the value of the dollar), thereby undermining the stability of the entire world economy.
As the national power of the U.S. has declined, the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, not only economically but also politically. If China's economy becomes larger in size, expanding its cross-border linkages, the renminbi will gradually gain greater influence in the international market as a natural consequence.
Q: The U.S. current-account deficit is certainly huge, but its principal cause is excessive spending. Profligate spending by American consumers has been supporting China's export-driven economic growth. On the other hand, China has also been supporting the U.S. and global economies by using the money it has earned to buy U.S. government bonds.
A: China's dollar assets, which are the fruits of hard work by Chinese people, are now in danger of falling in value. Currently, excessive production capacity in China is supporting excessive consumption in the U.S. It can be argued that China has been dragged into this situation by a wrong-headed U.S. policy. Since the 1980s, China has been under pressure to build up its foreign reserves by expanding its exports in order to alleviate a shortage of capital (needed by its industries) at home. China has also been gripped by excitement about its growing national power. Now, however, we need to rethink our policy.
Q: What kind of options are available for fixing the situation?
A: Many countries, including China, have dollar assets. We don't want to see the dollar weaken rapidly. The U.S., which is bent on protecting its privilege, is resisting necessary reforms. The dollar is drawing strength from its widespread use. For the time being, several rival currencies will compete with each other (for supremacy), and a balance of power will emerge among them as they limit each other's power. Over the next two or three decades, the dollar will remain to be the leading currency, with many others battling with each other for greater influence in the world.
Q: And do you believe the renminbi will be one of these competing currencies?
A: Yes. Experts around the world see the Chinese currency as one of the players that will create a new balance of power (in the currency market). China is trying to expand its influence within international organizations like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank so that the views and positions of emerging and developing countries will be more reflected in the process of developing international financial rules.
Q: But the Chinese government is keeping the renminbi artificially undervalued to promote the country's exports, isn't it?
A: We cannot liberalize at once flows of money that cross our borders, nor can we shift to a complete floating exchange rate system immediately. The primary lesson from the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s is the danger of making a developing country's economy fully open to international flows of capital. Huge amounts of foreign capital suddenly flew into these Asian countries and then suddenly poured out of them, causing serious confusion.
Beijing should expand the renminbi's trading band gradually. This way, it can buy time for necessary reforms at home including reform of its financial markets while ensuring the stability of the currency's exchange rates by taking advantage of the relatively high international confidence in the dollar. In addition, more people will want to hold the renminbi if the currency is generally expected to rise in the future.
Q: There are many restrictions on trading in the renminbi, including controls on cross-border transactions and regulations on Chinese financial markets. It is said that China's foreign exchange rate system is as strictly controlled as Japan's was in the 1970s. Would the Chinese currency gain international popularity even if such restrictions remain?
A: The amount of the renminbi circulating in the world is growing through Chinese companies' investments overseas using the domestic currency and the Chinese government's financial aid to developing countries. We are receiving many proposals to create a market for trading in the renminbi from various foreign financial centers including London and Singapore.
China's approach to reform can be compared to Chinese herb medicine. Progress is made gradually through a holistic process with emphasis on the harmony of the whole. We are going to ease our currency regulations in line with the progress we make in reforming the domestic economy and financial markets. With as many as 1.3 billion people to feed, we put the top policy priority on creating jobs and maintaining social stability in our country. China is still a minor financial player. We cannot introduce systems in mature, industrial nations at a stroke.
Q: China's mainland financial markets are not yet sufficiently open to foreign investors. Opening these markets would facilitate renminbi-denominated investments, wouldn't it?
A: As long as we keep financial markets in the mainland closed, we will use Hong Kong, which is an international financial center. That way, we can undertake new initiatives in financial markets in the mainland while keeping them insulated from certain risks. In Hong Kong, not only a market for renminbi-denominated deposits but also markets for renminbi-based trading in bonds and stocks are growing. When China still restricted international trade in goods, Hong Kong served as the connection point between the mainland and the rest of the world. Hong Kong will play that role again in the area of financial transactions.
The United States is pressing China to ease its financial regulations in pursuit of new business opportunities for its financial institutions. We cannot simply play ball with Washington. The internationalization of the renminbi has barely begun. It would be amazing if the share of the renminbi in the foreign reserves of countries rise to several percent, on a par with the current shares of the yen and the British pound, in 10 years. We will take steps to internationalize the renminbi in stages, starting with efforts to reform domestic markets during a period of preparation that will probably last until around 2020. We will first try to make the renminbi a leading currency in Asia, where we have strong economic ties with other countries.
Q: Then will it be a key global currency?
A: It will depend on what kind of economic growth China will maintain in coming years. In addition, this is not a purely economic challenge. Even if a period of competing currencies will continue for the time being, it is possible for China to make the renminbi a major currency in the world through mutual cooperation with other countries without getting embroiled in international conflict.
A country's currency is an indicator of its power. The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest in the mid-21st century. But the difficulty of understanding China's policy positions and goals is creating anxiety among other countries. China needs to clearly explain its financial and currency policies to the world and make it clear it is trying to achieve economic growth together with other countries.
Q: In China, we often hear policymakers talk about lessons from the 1985 Plaza Accord, an agreement among the five leading economic powers at that time to devalue the dollar. They argue that the accord is the cause of Japan's economic problems. By succumbing to U.S. pressure and accepting the yen's appreciation, they say, Japan allowed its businesses to lose international competitiveness, its economy to lose steam and financial market bubbles to form and then burst.
A: I don't think Chinese bureaucrats involved in policymaking believe such a simplified theory. Back then, the era of Japan's rapid, emerging country-type economic growth was already over as the number of young workers was decreasing. After many years of double-digit economic growth, China will also see its economy slow gradually in coming years. A nation cannot maintain its economic growth without carrying out necessary economic and social reforms in response to its development. The yen's appreciation was not the only challenge facing Japan. This is the biggest lesson we should learn from Japan's experiences during that period.
Q: Japan and China have reached an agreement on financial cooperation featuring measures to promote trade settlements using the yen and the renminbi, to develop a Chinese bond market for Japanese investors and cross-holdings of government bonds. It was first proposed by Japan, wasn't it?
A: From China's strategic viewpoint, dealing with Japan, which was the first country to become a major economic power in Asia and has an international currency, is a delicate matter. It is uncomfortable for China to seek Japan's cooperation for efforts to internationalize the renminbi. It would be embarrassing for China to make such a proposal only to be rejected by Japan. If Japan makes such a proposal that is in line with China's policy direction, however, there is no reason for China to decline it.
The internationalization of the renminbi will only accelerate irrespective of Japan's will. The Japanese government probably realized that the yen could be marginalized or Japanese companies could miss out on important business opportunities unless it expanded such financial cooperation with China.
Q: So this is a mutually beneficial deal?
A: Both countries can reduce foreign exchange risks and costs by using their own currencies for trade instead of using the dollar. The development of a market for trading in bonds denominated in Asian currencies would make it easier to invest money earned through trade within the region. It would also make it unnecessary for both countries to hold a huge amount of dollars as part of their foreign reserves. This is definitely beneficial for both sides.
If this cooperation between Japan and China works out well, it would lay a foundation for regional financial cooperation. If China wins the trust of its neighbors by providing solid support to the efforts, it could also gain regional confidence in the renminbi and improve the environment for its currency's rise to the status as a major regional currency.
Q: The world is paying a lot of attention to whether China will help solve the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
A: Since it is benefiting from the world economy, China is really hoping that Europe will regain financial stability quickly. Having said that, I would also say that whether or not China will help Europe with this problem is not an issue. Many European countries are in better fiscal health than Japan or the U.S. They are rich countries with per-capita gross domestic product far larger than China's. Europe has clearly the wherewithal to sort out the situation. In particular, the principal question is what Germany, which has been benefiting greatly from the euro's weakness, will do.
In case the Chinese government considers using part of its foreign reserves to make an investment in Europe, it will assess carefully whether the investment will yield a satisfactory return.
Q: What is your assessment of the probability of a common Asian currency?
A: It may be an ideal, but I don't see any possibility of such a currency becoming reality in the near future. In contrast with Europe, there are some historical problems among Asian countries, and the political systems and the levels of economic development greatly differ from country to country. But Asia is now at the center of global economic growth. There are many challenges Asian countries should tackle together in order to ensure stability in exchange rates and promote the development of financial markets in the region.
***
Xia Bin: Born in 1951, Xia Bin is currently counselor of China's State Council and honorary director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council's Development Research Center. He is also a member of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee. He graduated from the Graduate School of the People's Bank of China.
By KEIKO YOSHIOKA / Correspondent
ワシントンポスト、ニューヨークタイムズの記事は難しいけれども、通常のスピードで読み下して、理解率５０％は超えています。
ですが、タイム紙になると、これは、まったく歯がたちません＾＾。ちなみに、スーチーさんの、ビルマよりの手紙（毎日新聞掲載）はタイム紙レベルなのです。辞書なしに理解することは、難しいのです。これは使っている単語のレベルが違うということでしょうね。
今朝は、朝日新聞の電撃インタビュー記事を一息に読み下しました。
↓
中国の経済担当カウンセラーに朝日新聞記者が電撃インタビュー、
中国人民元は世界の基軸通貨となることができるのか？
インタビュー骨子：
あと30年は米ドルの天下。
米国はドルを大量（無制限に）印刷できる世界で唯一の特権を手にしているので、ドルの安定に尽力すべき。
そうしないと、大量のドルを抱え込んでいる中国だって、大迷惑を被ってしまう。
中国は香港を窓口として、世界為替市場に積極的に参加はするが、完全自由化はまだ先のこと。
現時点で、アメリカの言うなりに人民元を解放する（変動相場）ことは、あまりにも中国にとって危険である。
日本は落ち目、経済状況は米国と同じで欧州より悪い。
ヨーロッパはそれなりに伝統があるので頑張ってもらいたい。挽回してもらわないと中国経済にも悪影響が出る。
中国の人民元はやがて世界の基軸通貨となるかも知れないが、それは30年以上あとの話だ。
それに向けた対策を徐々に、段階的に切り替えて対策をとっていく。
西洋の急激なききめのある薬ではなくって、漢方薬のようにじっくりと効き目が後からついてくるような政策を展開する。
中国人民元に象徴されるアジア通貨が世界の基軸通貨となるのが理想的だが、それには時間がかかる。
アジア諸国は欧州と比べると歴史的な問題をかかえているし、政治の体系も異なっている。さらに経済の発展の度合いは国によりまちまちである。それでも、今後はアジアが経済の中心となって行くのは間違いのないところではある。アジア諸国が一致協力して、為替の安定を図り、経済的に発展していくことを願う。
（スラチャイ）
January 28, 2012
INTERVIEW/ Xia Bin: China’s senior economic advisor talks about strategy to promote renminbi
中国人民元は世界の基軸通貨となることができるのか（インタビュー)
By KEIKO YOSHIOKA / Correspondent
The global currency market is in a state of flux, as the euro is in serious trouble and international confidence in the dollar is also eroding. The outlook for the yen, which has appreciated sharply against the two leading currencies, is also murky because of Japan's mounting economic woes.
Amid this currency turmoil, China's renminbi is attracting increasing international attention as the unit of a country expected to eventually become an economic superpower rivaling or even surpassing the United States. Is Beijing maneuvering to make the renminbi a world currency that challenges the greenback for world hegemony?
In a recent interview with The Asahi Shimbun, Xia Bin, a councilor of the State Council who served as top official at the country's central bank and securities regulatory body and is now advising Premier Wen Jiabao, discussed Beijing's strategy to raise the currency's international stature. Excerpts of the interview follow.
Q: Since the global financial crisis started in 2008, the Chinese government has been calling for reform of the international currency regime. What are your complaints?
Xia Bin: The problem is the instability of the dollar. Since the dollar is the key reserve currency, the United States can borrow as much money as it wants from the rest of the world. Unlike other debt-ridden countries, the U.S. doesn't go bankrupt because it can pay back its debt by printing dollars. Since the U.S has such an exclusive privilege it has the obligation to ensure the stability of the dollar. But the country has kept running a current-account deficit (which works to depress the value of the dollar), thereby undermining the stability of the entire world economy.
As the national power of the U.S. has declined, the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, not only economically but also politically. If China's economy becomes larger in size, expanding its cross-border linkages, the renminbi will gradually gain greater influence in the international market as a natural consequence.
Q: The U.S. current-account deficit is certainly huge, but its principal cause is excessive spending. Profligate spending by American consumers has been supporting China's export-driven economic growth. On the other hand, China has also been supporting the U.S. and global economies by using the money it has earned to buy U.S. government bonds.
A: China's dollar assets, which are the fruits of hard work by Chinese people, are now in danger of falling in value. Currently, excessive production capacity in China is supporting excessive consumption in the U.S. It can be argued that China has been dragged into this situation by a wrong-headed U.S. policy. Since the 1980s, China has been under pressure to build up its foreign reserves by expanding its exports in order to alleviate a shortage of capital (needed by its industries) at home. China has also been gripped by excitement about its growing national power. Now, however, we need to rethink our policy.
Q: What kind of options are available for fixing the situation?
A: Many countries, including China, have dollar assets. We don't want to see the dollar weaken rapidly. The U.S., which is bent on protecting its privilege, is resisting necessary reforms. The dollar is drawing strength from its widespread use. For the time being, several rival currencies will compete with each other (for supremacy), and a balance of power will emerge among them as they limit each other's power. Over the next two or three decades, the dollar will remain to be the leading currency, with many others battling with each other for greater influence in the world.
Q: And do you believe the renminbi will be one of these competing currencies?
A: Yes. Experts around the world see the Chinese currency as one of the players that will create a new balance of power (in the currency market). China is trying to expand its influence within international organizations like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank so that the views and positions of emerging and developing countries will be more reflected in the process of developing international financial rules.
Q: But the Chinese government is keeping the renminbi artificially undervalued to promote the country's exports, isn't it?
A: We cannot liberalize at once flows of money that cross our borders, nor can we shift to a complete floating exchange rate system immediately. The primary lesson from the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s is the danger of making a developing country's economy fully open to international flows of capital. Huge amounts of foreign capital suddenly flew into these Asian countries and then suddenly poured out of them, causing serious confusion.
Beijing should expand the renminbi's trading band gradually. This way, it can buy time for necessary reforms at home including reform of its financial markets while ensuring the stability of the currency's exchange rates by taking advantage of the relatively high international confidence in the dollar. In addition, more people will want to hold the renminbi if the currency is generally expected to rise in the future.
Q: There are many restrictions on trading in the renminbi, including controls on cross-border transactions and regulations on Chinese financial markets. It is said that China's foreign exchange rate system is as strictly controlled as Japan's was in the 1970s. Would the Chinese currency gain international popularity even if such restrictions remain?
A: The amount of the renminbi circulating in the world is growing through Chinese companies' investments overseas using the domestic currency and the Chinese government's financial aid to developing countries. We are receiving many proposals to create a market for trading in the renminbi from various foreign financial centers including London and Singapore.
China's approach to reform can be compared to Chinese herb medicine. Progress is made gradually through a holistic process with emphasis on the harmony of the whole. We are going to ease our currency regulations in line with the progress we make in reforming the domestic economy and financial markets. With as many as 1.3 billion people to feed, we put the top policy priority on creating jobs and maintaining social stability in our country. China is still a minor financial player. We cannot introduce systems in mature, industrial nations at a stroke.
Q: China's mainland financial markets are not yet sufficiently open to foreign investors. Opening these markets would facilitate renminbi-denominated investments, wouldn't it?
A: As long as we keep financial markets in the mainland closed, we will use Hong Kong, which is an international financial center. That way, we can undertake new initiatives in financial markets in the mainland while keeping them insulated from certain risks. In Hong Kong, not only a market for renminbi-denominated deposits but also markets for renminbi-based trading in bonds and stocks are growing. When China still restricted international trade in goods, Hong Kong served as the connection point between the mainland and the rest of the world. Hong Kong will play that role again in the area of financial transactions.
The United States is pressing China to ease its financial regulations in pursuit of new business opportunities for its financial institutions. We cannot simply play ball with Washington. The internationalization of the renminbi has barely begun. It would be amazing if the share of the renminbi in the foreign reserves of countries rise to several percent, on a par with the current shares of the yen and the British pound, in 10 years. We will take steps to internationalize the renminbi in stages, starting with efforts to reform domestic markets during a period of preparation that will probably last until around 2020. We will first try to make the renminbi a leading currency in Asia, where we have strong economic ties with other countries.
Q: Then will it be a key global currency?
A: It will depend on what kind of economic growth China will maintain in coming years. In addition, this is not a purely economic challenge. Even if a period of competing currencies will continue for the time being, it is possible for China to make the renminbi a major currency in the world through mutual cooperation with other countries without getting embroiled in international conflict.
A country's currency is an indicator of its power. The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest in the mid-21st century. But the difficulty of understanding China's policy positions and goals is creating anxiety among other countries. China needs to clearly explain its financial and currency policies to the world and make it clear it is trying to achieve economic growth together with other countries.
Q: In China, we often hear policymakers talk about lessons from the 1985 Plaza Accord, an agreement among the five leading economic powers at that time to devalue the dollar. They argue that the accord is the cause of Japan's economic problems. By succumbing to U.S. pressure and accepting the yen's appreciation, they say, Japan allowed its businesses to lose international competitiveness, its economy to lose steam and financial market bubbles to form and then burst.
A: I don't think Chinese bureaucrats involved in policymaking believe such a simplified theory. Back then, the era of Japan's rapid, emerging country-type economic growth was already over as the number of young workers was decreasing. After many years of double-digit economic growth, China will also see its economy slow gradually in coming years. A nation cannot maintain its economic growth without carrying out necessary economic and social reforms in response to its development. The yen's appreciation was not the only challenge facing Japan. This is the biggest lesson we should learn from Japan's experiences during that period.
Q: Japan and China have reached an agreement on financial cooperation featuring measures to promote trade settlements using the yen and the renminbi, to develop a Chinese bond market for Japanese investors and cross-holdings of government bonds. It was first proposed by Japan, wasn't it?
A: From China's strategic viewpoint, dealing with Japan, which was the first country to become a major economic power in Asia and has an international currency, is a delicate matter. It is uncomfortable for China to seek Japan's cooperation for efforts to internationalize the renminbi. It would be embarrassing for China to make such a proposal only to be rejected by Japan. If Japan makes such a proposal that is in line with China's policy direction, however, there is no reason for China to decline it.
The internationalization of the renminbi will only accelerate irrespective of Japan's will. The Japanese government probably realized that the yen could be marginalized or Japanese companies could miss out on important business opportunities unless it expanded such financial cooperation with China.
Q: So this is a mutually beneficial deal?
A: Both countries can reduce foreign exchange risks and costs by using their own currencies for trade instead of using the dollar. The development of a market for trading in bonds denominated in Asian currencies would make it easier to invest money earned through trade within the region. It would also make it unnecessary for both countries to hold a huge amount of dollars as part of their foreign reserves. This is definitely beneficial for both sides.
If this cooperation between Japan and China works out well, it would lay a foundation for regional financial cooperation. If China wins the trust of its neighbors by providing solid support to the efforts, it could also gain regional confidence in the renminbi and improve the environment for its currency's rise to the status as a major regional currency.
Q: The world is paying a lot of attention to whether China will help solve the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
A: Since it is benefiting from the world economy, China is really hoping that Europe will regain financial stability quickly. Having said that, I would also say that whether or not China will help Europe with this problem is not an issue. Many European countries are in better fiscal health than Japan or the U.S. They are rich countries with per-capita gross domestic product far larger than China's. Europe has clearly the wherewithal to sort out the situation. In particular, the principal question is what Germany, which has been benefiting greatly from the euro's weakness, will do.
In case the Chinese government considers using part of its foreign reserves to make an investment in Europe, it will assess carefully whether the investment will yield a satisfactory return.
Q: What is your assessment of the probability of a common Asian currency?
A: It may be an ideal, but I don't see any possibility of such a currency becoming reality in the near future. In contrast with Europe, there are some historical problems among Asian countries, and the political systems and the levels of economic development greatly differ from country to country. But Asia is now at the center of global economic growth. There are many challenges Asian countries should tackle together in order to ensure stability in exchange rates and promote the development of financial markets in the region.
***
Xia Bin: Born in 1951, Xia Bin is currently counselor of China's State Council and honorary director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council's Development Research Center. He is also a member of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee. He graduated from the Graduate School of the People's Bank of China.
By KEIKO YOSHIOKA / Correspondent
2012/01/29
米ゼロ金利継続 景気低迷に警戒強めたＦＲＢ
The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jan. 29, 2012)
Fed's super-low rate policy aimed at boosting economy
米ゼロ金利継続 景気低迷に警戒強めたＦＲＢ（1月28日付・読売社説）
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided to keep its de facto zero benchmark interest rate well into the future.
米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、事実上のゼロ金利政策を長期間続ける方針を打ち出した。
The Fed's new timetable indicates it is increasingly concerned about the future of the U.S. economy.
米国経済の先行きに警戒を強めたのだろう。
In deciding to maintain its close-to-zero interest rate policy, the Fed said in a statement released Wednesday that current U.S. economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
ＦＲＢは声明で、ゼロ金利政策について、「少なくとも２０１４年終盤まで異例の低金利が正当化される可能性が高い」と指摘した。
This new policy is highly significant as the Fed is prolonging its super-low interest rate a year and a half beyond its earlier stance that an extremely low interest rate should be maintained until the end of the first half of 2013.
「１３年半ばまで」としてきた従来の方針と比べ、１年半程度も延ばす意味は大きい。
The unemployment rate in the United States has remained high at more than 8 percent, while its post-inflation economic growth this year is projected to be below 2 percent.
米国の失業率は８％台に高止まりし、今年の実質成長率も２％弱に低迷する見込みだ。
U.S. business activities have yet to regain their strength.
景気の回復力はまだ緩慢である。
The European sovereign crisis, which was triggered by Greece and has not yet been resolved, threatens to destabilize the global economy.
ギリシャに端を発した欧州危機は収束せず、世界経済を揺るがせている。
Should the European crisis deteriorate because of a delay in implementing countermeasures, the consequences could deal an even heavier blow to the U.S. economy.
対策の遅れで危機が深刻化すると、米国経済に一段と打撃を与えかねない。
===
Fed action praiseworthy
The Fed boldly decided to prolong its super-low federal funds rate policy to encourage declines in interest rates on long-term loans in the hope of shoring up business activities and stimulating fixed investments and other business areas.
ＦＲＢは、ゼロ金利政策を思い切って長期化させて、長期金利の低下を促し、設備投資などを刺激する景気下支え効果を狙った。
It seems that in its latest policy meeting, the Fed could not brush aside growing uncertainties shrouding the global economy as seen in the eurozone's rapidly deteriorating business conditions and the world's alarmingly unstable financial markets.
ユーロ圏の急減速や不安定な市場など、世界を覆う不透明感を軽視できなかったと言えよう。
The United States has no room for a further reduction of the federal funds rate, and the scope of measures to handle financial policies is limited.
金利引き下げの余地はなく、金融政策が打てる手は限られている。
The Fed's resolve to take all possible measures to bring about a strong economic recovery in spite of these circumstances is a welcome development.
それでも現状で可能な限りの姿勢を示したのは評価できる。
The U.S. central bank has made public its outlook for a benchmark interest rate for the first time, indicating that many of its 17 members do not anticipate the need to tighten its monetary policy in the near future.
ＦＲＢは今回初めて、政策金利の見通しを示し、早期の金融引き締めを想定していないメンバーが多いことを明らかにした。
The Fed also set an acceptable rate of price increases at "2 percent from a year before," another noteworthy change that enhances the transparency of its policy handling.
長期的に望ましい物価上昇率の目安を「前年比２％」と設定した点も、政策の透明性を高めるもので注目すべき変化である。
The 2 percent "inflation goal" is different from a formal "inflation target" that would make it mandatory for the Fed to take measures immediately after price increases exceed 2 percent on an annual basis.
物価上昇率の「目安」とは、上昇率が２％から外れた時に、直ちに政策対応が必要な「インフレ目標」とは異なる。
The announcement of the inflation goal, or what the Fed believes is an acceptable inflation rate, however, is sufficiently effective to convey a clear-cut message that it places great importance on an inflation figure of 2 percent.
だが、２％を重視するメッセージは鮮明だ。
===
Yen's appreciation to linger
A protracted ultraeasy monetary policy may bring the risk of higher prices.
超金融緩和が長引くと、物価上昇圧力が高まる恐れがある。
Bearing such anxieties in mind, the Fed has firmly stated it will continue to place top priority on price stabilization, an action that will reassure businesses and households.
そうした懸念に対し、ＦＲＢが物価安定をあくまで最優先していく姿勢を示したことは、企業や家計に安心感を与えるだろう。
The focus from now on will be whether the Fed, in the event of further financial market destabilization, will opt for Phase 3 of large-scale quantitative monetary easing, the so-called QE3.
今後の焦点は、金融市場が一段と不安定になった場合、ＦＲＢが第３弾の大規模な量的緩和策（ＱＥ３）に踏み切るかどうかだ。
Phase 2--QE2--ended last summer, but it came under criticism for causing inflation in emerging economies to worsen.
昨夏に終了した第２弾のＱＥ２は、新興国のインフレを招く副作用をもたらして批判された。
Therefore, a number of hurdles need to be surmounted before QE3 can be adopted.
ＱＥ３へのハードルは高いが、
The Fed will have a difficult time carrying out policies, while keeping an eye on how the European crisis evolves.
ＦＲＢは欧州危機の推移などを注視し、難しい舵(かじ)取りが求められる。
Japan, for its part, must consider the great possibility that the appreciation of the historically strong yen against the dollar will continue, as the Fed's ultraeasy monetary policy is bound to increase selling pressure on the greenback.
日本にとっては、米国の超金融緩和策でドル売り圧力が強まり、歴史的な円高・ドル安が続くことに注意が必要である。
The government and the Bank of Japan must do everything they can in working out measures to stem the yen's appreciation and take measures to prevent the strong yen from worsening business activities in this country.
政府・日銀は、円高是正や円高対策に万全を期さねばならない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 28, 2012)
（2012年1月28日01時14分 読売新聞）
Fed's super-low rate policy aimed at boosting economy
米ゼロ金利継続 景気低迷に警戒強めたＦＲＢ（1月28日付・読売社説）
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided to keep its de facto zero benchmark interest rate well into the future.
米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が、事実上のゼロ金利政策を長期間続ける方針を打ち出した。
The Fed's new timetable indicates it is increasingly concerned about the future of the U.S. economy.
米国経済の先行きに警戒を強めたのだろう。
In deciding to maintain its close-to-zero interest rate policy, the Fed said in a statement released Wednesday that current U.S. economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
ＦＲＢは声明で、ゼロ金利政策について、「少なくとも２０１４年終盤まで異例の低金利が正当化される可能性が高い」と指摘した。
This new policy is highly significant as the Fed is prolonging its super-low interest rate a year and a half beyond its earlier stance that an extremely low interest rate should be maintained until the end of the first half of 2013.
「１３年半ばまで」としてきた従来の方針と比べ、１年半程度も延ばす意味は大きい。
The unemployment rate in the United States has remained high at more than 8 percent, while its post-inflation economic growth this year is projected to be below 2 percent.
米国の失業率は８％台に高止まりし、今年の実質成長率も２％弱に低迷する見込みだ。
U.S. business activities have yet to regain their strength.
景気の回復力はまだ緩慢である。
The European sovereign crisis, which was triggered by Greece and has not yet been resolved, threatens to destabilize the global economy.
ギリシャに端を発した欧州危機は収束せず、世界経済を揺るがせている。
Should the European crisis deteriorate because of a delay in implementing countermeasures, the consequences could deal an even heavier blow to the U.S. economy.
対策の遅れで危機が深刻化すると、米国経済に一段と打撃を与えかねない。
===
Fed action praiseworthy
The Fed boldly decided to prolong its super-low federal funds rate policy to encourage declines in interest rates on long-term loans in the hope of shoring up business activities and stimulating fixed investments and other business areas.
ＦＲＢは、ゼロ金利政策を思い切って長期化させて、長期金利の低下を促し、設備投資などを刺激する景気下支え効果を狙った。
It seems that in its latest policy meeting, the Fed could not brush aside growing uncertainties shrouding the global economy as seen in the eurozone's rapidly deteriorating business conditions and the world's alarmingly unstable financial markets.
ユーロ圏の急減速や不安定な市場など、世界を覆う不透明感を軽視できなかったと言えよう。
The United States has no room for a further reduction of the federal funds rate, and the scope of measures to handle financial policies is limited.
金利引き下げの余地はなく、金融政策が打てる手は限られている。
The Fed's resolve to take all possible measures to bring about a strong economic recovery in spite of these circumstances is a welcome development.
それでも現状で可能な限りの姿勢を示したのは評価できる。
The U.S. central bank has made public its outlook for a benchmark interest rate for the first time, indicating that many of its 17 members do not anticipate the need to tighten its monetary policy in the near future.
ＦＲＢは今回初めて、政策金利の見通しを示し、早期の金融引き締めを想定していないメンバーが多いことを明らかにした。
The Fed also set an acceptable rate of price increases at "2 percent from a year before," another noteworthy change that enhances the transparency of its policy handling.
長期的に望ましい物価上昇率の目安を「前年比２％」と設定した点も、政策の透明性を高めるもので注目すべき変化である。
The 2 percent "inflation goal" is different from a formal "inflation target" that would make it mandatory for the Fed to take measures immediately after price increases exceed 2 percent on an annual basis.
物価上昇率の「目安」とは、上昇率が２％から外れた時に、直ちに政策対応が必要な「インフレ目標」とは異なる。
The announcement of the inflation goal, or what the Fed believes is an acceptable inflation rate, however, is sufficiently effective to convey a clear-cut message that it places great importance on an inflation figure of 2 percent.
だが、２％を重視するメッセージは鮮明だ。
===
Yen's appreciation to linger
A protracted ultraeasy monetary policy may bring the risk of higher prices.
超金融緩和が長引くと、物価上昇圧力が高まる恐れがある。
Bearing such anxieties in mind, the Fed has firmly stated it will continue to place top priority on price stabilization, an action that will reassure businesses and households.
そうした懸念に対し、ＦＲＢが物価安定をあくまで最優先していく姿勢を示したことは、企業や家計に安心感を与えるだろう。
The focus from now on will be whether the Fed, in the event of further financial market destabilization, will opt for Phase 3 of large-scale quantitative monetary easing, the so-called QE3.
今後の焦点は、金融市場が一段と不安定になった場合、ＦＲＢが第３弾の大規模な量的緩和策（ＱＥ３）に踏み切るかどうかだ。
Phase 2--QE2--ended last summer, but it came under criticism for causing inflation in emerging economies to worsen.
昨夏に終了した第２弾のＱＥ２は、新興国のインフレを招く副作用をもたらして批判された。
Therefore, a number of hurdles need to be surmounted before QE3 can be adopted.
ＱＥ３へのハードルは高いが、
The Fed will have a difficult time carrying out policies, while keeping an eye on how the European crisis evolves.
ＦＲＢは欧州危機の推移などを注視し、難しい舵(かじ)取りが求められる。
Japan, for its part, must consider the great possibility that the appreciation of the historically strong yen against the dollar will continue, as the Fed's ultraeasy monetary policy is bound to increase selling pressure on the greenback.
日本にとっては、米国の超金融緩和策でドル売り圧力が強まり、歴史的な円高・ドル安が続くことに注意が必要である。
The government and the Bank of Japan must do everything they can in working out measures to stem the yen's appreciation and take measures to prevent the strong yen from worsening business activities in this country.
政府・日銀は、円高是正や円高対策に万全を期さねばならない。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 28, 2012)
（2012年1月28日01時14分 読売新聞）
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