参院選 きょう公示 戦略的投票でこたえよう

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 22
EDITORIAL: 'Strategic voting' is a must for pivotal Upper House election
（社説）参院選　きょう公示　戦略的投票でこたえよう
 
Campaigning for the July 10 Upper House election kicked off on June 22.
　参院選がきょう公示される。

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is making the economy the main issue. But there is no question that constitutional amendment will also be at stake, even though Abe says it is not necessary for it to become an election issue. His reasoning is that the Diet needs to debate this subject further.
　安倍首相が前面に掲げるのは経済だ。一方、その裏に憲法改正があるのは明白だ。

Abe is more than eager to revise the Constitution. But with the prime minister giving no indication whatsoever of which parts of the Constitution he intends to rewrite and how, voters have no way of forming a judgment.
　首相は、必ずしも改憲を争点にする必要はないという。国会での議論がいまだ収斂（しゅうれん）していないというのが、その理由だ。
　しかし、改憲に意欲的な首相自身がどこをどう変えたいのかをまったく明かさないのでは、有権者は判断しようがない。

Abe is conducting politics the "wrong side up" or "back to front." Do we voters allow such an approach to escalate, or do we put the brakes on it? This Upper House election definitely carries far more weight than a mere "midterm evaluation" of the Abe administration.
　こんな逆立ちした政治の進め方に弾みをつけるのか、ブレーキをかけるのか。この参院選には「政権の中間評価」ではすまない重みがある。

NOT REFLECTING POPULAR WILL
　■民意とのねじれ

This will be the second Upper House election since Abe began his second stint as prime minister in December 2012. In retrospect, Abe became the "sole winner" by bringing both chambers of the Diet under the control of the ruling coalition with the previous Upper House election in 2013, which was seven months after the change in government from the then Democratic Party of Japan.
　安倍氏が２０１２年１２月に首相に返り咲いてから、参院選は２度目になる。振り返れば「安倍１強政治」の出発点となったのは、政権交代から７カ月後に衆参の「ねじれ」を解消した１３年の前回参院選だった。

Voters who voted for the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, New Komeito, now called Komeito, in that election were apparently disgusted by the inefficacy of the DPJ administration, and wanted the LDP-New Komeito coalition to stabilize politics and focus on improving the Japanese economy.
　この時に自民、公明両党に票を投じた有権者には、民主党政権の混乱にあきれ、安定した政治で景気回復に取り組んでほしいとの思いが見てとれた。

After that Upper House election three years ago, we wrote in our editorial that the government should not be "divorced from popular will."
　３年前のねじれ解消を受け、私たちは社説で「民意とのねじれを恐れよ」と書いた。

We wondered if the wages would go up for small and midsize company workers and those working outside the big cities. We wondered if the Abe administration would be able to secure revenues needed to stabilize the health-care and social security systems. And the thrust of our argument was that should Abe ignore these concerns and proceed instead with his policy of "departure from the postwar regime," he would be betraying the wishes of the people.
中小企業や地方で働く人々の賃金は上がるのか、財源を確保して医療や福祉を安定させられるのか。首相がこうした期待に応えぬまま「戦後レジームからの脱却」にかじを切れば、民意を裏切ることになるとの趣旨だ。

We believe we have been proven right, given the continuing surge of popular protest against the Abe administration since the enactment of national security legislation last year.
　昨年の安全保障関連法の制定からなお続く反対運動のうねりをみれば、この懸念は的外れではなかったと感じる。

In the upcoming election, Abe says the focal point is to seek the public's approval of his "new decision" of postponing the consumption tax hike. By stressing economic statistics such as increased tax revenues and employment, he is telling voters to decide whether they want "Abenomics" to advance or regress.
　消費増税先送りという「新しい判断」の信を問う。これが首相のいう争点だ。税収や就業者の増加といった経済指標を強調し、アベノミクスを前に進めるか後戻りさせるかと訴える。

The proper thing for Abe is to take responsibility for reneging on his promise to raise the consumption tax rate “for certain." But in not doing so, he appears to be taking advantage of the honest feelings of many people who are reluctant to "swallow the bitter medicine" of paying a higher consumption tax.
　首相は本来、増税を「確実に実施する」という約束を破った責任を取るべきだ。そうしない裏には、「苦い薬は飲みたくない」という多くの国民の率直な思いに乗じた計算が見える。

Abe has said that the victory depends on "the ruling coalition winning a majority of contested seats." Setting the goal may demonstrate his resolve, but whether he will step down if he fails to achieve that goal is anyone's guess.
　安倍氏は「与党で改選議席の過半数獲得」を勝敗ラインに掲げる。覚悟を示したかに見えるが、勝敗ラインを割れば退陣するのかは、はっきりしない。

LOW VOTER TURNOUT CONTINUES
　■低い投票率の結果

The ruling coalition of Abe's LDP and Komeito has won three national elections in a row since 2012. And one common factor among the three polls was low voter turnout.
　安倍氏率いる自民党と公明党が３連勝した１２年以降の衆参両院の選挙には、共通の特徴がある。投票率が低いのだ。

The rates were at the 59 percent level for the 2012 Lower House election and at the 52 percent level for both the 2013 Upper House election and the 2014 Lower House election. Voter turnout in 2014 was the lowest in the postwar history of Lower House elections.
　１２年衆院選で５９％台、１３年参院選と１４年衆院選はともに５２％台で、１４年は衆院選として戦後最低を記録した。

The difference is substantial from the nearly 70 percent voter turnout in the 2009 Lower House election that resulted in the historic change in government. In terms of the number of voters, 72.02 million people voted in the 2009 election, whereas only 54.74 million people did so in the 2014 election. To put this simply, about 17 million voters stopped going to the polls in the 2014 election.
　民主党へと政権交代した０９年衆院選の６９％台と比べれば、その差は大きい。投票者数でみれば、０９年の７２０２万人に対し１４年は５４７４万人。単純計算で、１７００万あまりの人が投票所に行くのをやめた。

Between 2009 and 2014, the LDP experienced both its fall from power and return to power, but there actually was no significant difference in the number of votes the party won. In the proportional representation portion, the LDP won less than one out of five votes in each election, when abstentions are taken into account.
　自民党はこの間、野党転落と政権復帰の両方を経験したが、実は得票数に大きな変動はない。比例区では、いずれの選挙でも棄権を含めたすべての有権者の５人に１人に満たない支持で推移している。

In other words, the LDP under Abe has not really gained supporters. Under the current election system, which is prone to create wasted votes, the simple fact is that the drastic decrease in the number of DPJ supporters and the increased number of abstentions have given the LDP more seats than those in proportion to the votes it has actually won.
　つまり、安倍自民党は支持者をさほど増やしているわけではない。死票が出やすい選挙制度のもと、民主党支持の激減と棄権者の増加が、自民党に得票以上に多くの議席をもたらしているに過ぎない。

The Abe administration arbitrarily "reinterpreted" the Constitution to allow the nation to exercise its right to collective self-defense, instituted the controversial state secrets protection law, and threatened freedom of the press and the public's right to know by hinting at invoking the Broadcast Law.
　解釈改憲による集団的自衛権の行使容認。特定秘密保護法の制定や、放送法を振りかざした国民の知る権利や報道の自由への威圧。

Not only has the Abe administration marginalized the constraints of the Constitution, but it is now trying to start debate on revising the Constitution without seeking the public's input in the upcoming election.
But what can we voters do about the dangers of the administration?
憲法の縛りを緩めるばかりか、選挙で問わぬままに改正論議に手をつけようという政権の危うさを目の当たりにした有権者に何ができるか。

VOTING OUT 'BAD' CANDIDATES
　■「悪さ加減」を選ぶ

"Strategic voting" is one way to use each vote effectively.
　答えの一つが、自らの一票を有効に使う「戦略的投票」だ。

This may be an unfamiliar term, but one example is to vote for candidates—even if they are not one’s best choices--who have a chance to defeat the party or candidate one definitely does not want.
　聞き慣れない言葉かもしれない。一例を挙げれば、最も評価しない候補者や政党を勝たせないため、自分にとって最善でなくとも勝つ可能性のある次善の候補に投票することだ。

Yukichi Fukuzawa (1835-1901), whom Abe often quotes in his speeches, once observed to the effect, "Government is not 'good' by nature. What needs to be borne in mind is to acknowledge the reality of how bad it is."
　首相もたびたび演説に引用する福沢諭吉は、こんな言葉を残している。
　「本来政府の性は善ならずして、注意す可（べ）きは只（ただ）その悪さ加減の如何（いかん）に在るの事実を、始めて発明することならん」（時事新報論集七）。

Political scientist Masao Maruyama (1914-1996) commented on Fukuzawa's observation after World War II: "A political choice is made on the basis of how bad something is."
政治学者の丸山真男は、戦後にこれを「政治的な選択とは〈中略〉悪さ加減の選択なのだ」（「政治的判断」）と紹介した。

The failure of the DPJ administration is still fresh in many people's minds. The low voter turnout rates that have continued since the party's fall from power apparently reflect the people's disillusionment with politics and sense of helplessness.
　民主党政権の失敗は、なお多くの有権者の記憶に生々しい。その後の低投票率には、政治への失望や無力感も反映されているのだろう。

But if nothing is done about this, not only will democracy deteriorate, but constitutionalism will also be in grave danger.
　だが、このままでは民主主義がやせ細るばかりか、立憲主義も危機に瀕（ひん）する。

Even if we don't have any candidate or party we want to support, we must make up our minds to go to the polls to stop what we see as "bad" from winning the election.
　意中の候補や政党がなくとも、「悪さ加減の選択」と割り切って投票所に足を運ぶ。

And we have until July 10 to think through how effectively we can use our two ballots--one for the single-seat electorate and the other for the proportional representation portion.
７月１０日の投票日までに、選挙区と比例区２枚の投票用紙をいかに有効に使うかを見極める。

With 2.4 million 18- and 19-year-olds voting for the first time, the older generation cannot just sit out this upcoming election.
　１８、１９歳の２４０万人もの若者を有権者として新たに迎える選挙だ。上の世代が、ただ傍観しているわけにはいかない。