英国民投票へ ＥＵ離脱なら不安定化を招く

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Europe to be unsettled if Britain opts to exit the EU in coming referendum
英国民投票へ　ＥＵ離脱なら不安定化を招く

A referendum has been set for June 23 in Britain regarding whether the country should stay in or exit from the European Union.
　欧州連合（ＥＵ）に英国が残留するか、離脱するかを問う国民投票が、６月２３日に実施されることになった。

Should the referendum comes out in favor of departure, there will be no turning back for the country. Britain is the second-largest economy in the EU and a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. If Britain leaves the bloc, it will inevitably have great impact on Europe’s politics and economy. The EU stands at a crossroads.
　国民投票で離脱となれば、もう後戻りはできない。英国は域内第２の経済規模を持ち、国連安全保障理事会常任理事国でもある。欧州の政治・経済に大きな影響を及ぼすのは避けられまい。ＥＵは岐路に立っている。

Calling to stay in the EU, British Prime Minister David Cameron has emphasized, “Britain will be safer, stronger and better off by remaining in a reformed European Union.” It takes into account a recent agreement reached at a meeting of EU leaders to adopt a package of reform measures aimed at keeping Britain in the bloc.
　残留を訴えるキャメロン英首相は、「改革した欧州にとどまる方が、英国は、より強く安全で豊かになれる」と強調した。ＥＵ首脳会議が残留を後押しする改革で合意したことを踏まえたものだ。

The deal promises to guarantee Britain “special status” as a concession to that country by the other EU members.
　合意では、ＥＵ側が譲歩して、英国に特別な地位を保証した。

It acknowledges that Britain would not commit itself to further political integration. The agreement would enable Britain to restrict social security benefits given to immigrants and would also guarantee not to place a financial burden on Britain or other non-eurozone member states if an economic crisis erupts in the eurozone.
　政治統合の深化には、英国が関与しないことを容認した。移民に対する社会保障を英国が制限することを可能にし、ユーロ圏の経済危機で英国など非ユーロ圏に負担をかけないよう保証した。

Cameron’s leadership will be tested over whether he will be able to persuade the British public to accept his calls for remaining a part of the EU.
　ＥＵ加盟継続に向けて国民を説得できるのか、キャメロン氏の指導力が試されよう。

Divisions over immigration

Since last year, the EU has been confronted with the serious challenge of dealing with a sharp increase in immigrants from the Middle East. Each EU country resorted to its own measures aimed at restricting the inflow of immigrants to its respective territory, which has added impetus to the anti-EU movement. If the current situation goes on, European integration could fall into a crisis.
　ＥＵは昨年以降、中東からの難民急増という深刻な課題に直面している。各国がバラバラに流入制限策に走り、反ＥＵの動きを勢いづかせた。このままでは、欧州統合が危機に陥りかねない。

In Britain, anti-immigration party has gained strength in recent years, against the backdrop of an increase in the number of immigrants from Eastern European countries that have joined the EU. Euroskepticism, the name given to skeptical views of the EU, has grown increasingly strong within the ruling Conservative Party, too. Pledging to settle the immigration issue through a referendum, Cameron scored a victory in a general election last year.
　英国でも近年、ＥＵに加盟した東欧諸国からの移民増加を背景に「反移民」政党が伸長し、与党・保守党内でもＥＵ懐疑論が強まっていた。キャメロン氏は、この問題を決着させる国民投票を公約し、昨年の総選挙で勝利した。

Half of Britain’s export destinations are other EU countries. If Britain exits the EU, it will be necessary for the nation to conclude new trade and other agreements with the union. It is certain that the British economy will face greater uncertainties.
　英国の輸出先の半分はＥＵだ。離脱の場合は、ＥＵとの間で貿易などの取り決めを締結し直す必要がある。英国経済の不透明さが増すのは確実だ。

The pro-exit camp has criticized the expansion of authorities given to EU and insists to restore sovereignty of Britain. London Mayor Boris Johnson — a prominent figure tipped as a candidate to succeed Cameron at the helm of the Conservative Party, with the hope of becoming the next prime minster — has said he supports Britain’s departure from the bloc. This will likely deal a blow to Cameron.
　離脱派は、ＥＵの権限拡大を批判し、英国の主権を取り戻すべきだと主張する。保守党の首相後継候補と目される有力者、ジョンソン・ロンドン市長が「離脱」支持を表明したのは、キャメロン氏にとっては痛手となろう。

Johnson and others may expect that Britain will be able to achieve long-term economic development by having the City in London, an international financial center, freed from EU regulations.
　ジョンソン氏らには、国際金融センターであるロンドンのシティーをＥＵの規制から解放することで、長期的な経済発展が望めるという期待もあるのではないか。

Britain’s exit from the EU would lead to a decline in the EU’s presence as a huge single market. It would also weaken the EU’s voice in dealing with such diplomatic issues as the sanctions imposed on Russia and the fight against terrorism.
　英国の離脱は、巨大な単一市場としてのＥＵの存在感低下につながる。対ロシア制裁やテロ対策など外交分野での取り組みでも、ＥＵの発言権を弱めよう。

A number of Japanese corporations have bases in Britain for their business operations in Europe. They could be forced to reconsider their business strategy, depending on the result of the British referendum.
　日本企業の多くが、欧州展開の拠点を英国に置く。国民投票の結果次第では、戦略の見直しを迫られることにもなる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 24, 2016)