中台閣僚級会談 歴史的な一歩にはなったが

The Yomiuri Shimbun February 14, 2014
Beijing-Taipei ties mark historic advance, but much remains uncertain
中台閣僚級会談　歴史的な一歩にはなったが（2月14日付・読売社説）

Relations between China and Taiwan have entered a new chapter with the recent commencement of direct government-to-government dialogue.
　中国と台湾の関係は、当局同士が直接交流する新たな段階に入った。

We should keep a close eye on whether this latest development will boost stability in East Asia by helping ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
これが、台湾海峡の緊張緩和を促し、東アジアの安定に寄与するのかを注視したい。

The chiefs of the highest-level governmental offices in charge of cross-strait affairs—Zhang Zhijun, director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, and Wang Yu-chi, head of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council—met in Nanjing on Tuesday and agreed to establish a permanent channel of communication between the two sides.
　中台関係の主管官庁トップである、中国の張志軍・国務院台湾事務弁公室主任と、台湾の王郁●・大陸委員会主任委員が、南京で会談し、恒常的な相互連絡ルートを設けることで合意した。（●は王ヘンに奇）

This is the first time a ministerial-level meeting between officials tasked with policies on China-Taiwan affairs has taken place since the 1949 split.
　１９４９年の中台分断後、中台政策担当の閣僚級会談が行われたのは初めてだ。

There has so far been no framework for dialogue between the Chinese and Taiwan authorities, with Beijing and Taipei refusing to acknowledge the other’s sovereignty. Talks on such subjects as bilateral economic cooperation have been conducted via “quasi-official” organizations on both sides.
　互いに相手の主権を認めていない中台間には、これまで当局同士の対話の枠組みはなく、経済協力などの話し合いは、「民間」の窓口機関を通じて行われてきた。

From now, various forms of direct cross-strait interchanges between the Chinese and Taiwan authorities will be considered, including exchanging permanent representative offices.
　今後、当局間では、出先事務所の相互設置をはじめ、様々な形の直接交流が模索される。

It seems, however, there are major differences in the Chinese and Taiwan governments’ intentions in bringing about the historic ministerial-level talks.
　ただ、歴史的な閣僚級会談を実現させた中台首脳の思惑には大きな食い違いがあると見てよい。

President Ma Ying-jeou may primarily seek to gain China’s agreement to ease its trade regulations so as to expand Taiwan’s business opportunities in China, while pushing for China to acknowledge Taiwan’s status as a party to international economic agreements.
　台湾の馬英九総統の狙いは、対中ビジネス拡大につながる規制緩和を中国当局から引き出したり、国際的な経済協定の当事者としての地位を中国に認めさせたりすることだろう。

Can Xi-Ma talks take place?

Ma may have placed his hopes on restoring his popular support by realizing such outcomes. With unified local elections scheduled for toward the end of the year, the Ma administration’s popularity ratings have been painfully low due to reasons including the slowdown in Taiwan’s economic growth, widening economic disparities, corruption scandals involving Ma’s close aides and internal strife in his governing Nationalist Party (Kuomintang).
　そうした成果を上げられれば、支持回復につながるとの読みがあるのではないか。年末の統一地方選を控えて、経済成長の鈍化や所得格差、側近の汚職、与党・国民党の内紛などにより、馬政権の支持率は低迷したままである。

Chinese President Xi Jinping, in contrast, must have certainly considered the cross-strait talks as a launching point for political consultations for China-Taiwan unification.
　これに対して、中国の習近平国家主席は、今回の会談を中台統一に向けた政治協議への足がかりとみなしているに違いない。

However, Taiwan is wary of having political consultations with China, as a great majority of Taiwan’s residents support the status quo and reject the idea of unification with China.
　だが、台湾側は政治協議には消極的だ。台湾住民の大多数は、現状維持を望んでおり、中国との統一は拒んでいる。

The current focus of attention is on whether a meeting between Ma and Xi can be held at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit meeting scheduled for this coming autumn in Beijing.
　当面の焦点は、北京で今秋開かれるアジア太平洋経済協力会議（ＡＰＥＣ）首脳会議の際に、馬氏と習氏による会談が実現するかどうかだ。

Wheeling and dealing will continue between Taiwan, which places priority on gaining practical benefits, and China, which sees a direct cross-strait channel of communication as a foothold for political consultations for unification.
実益重視の台湾と、統一協議につなげたい中国との駆け引きが続くことになろう。

In spite of the creation of full-scale interchanges between Chinese and Taiwan authorities, there has been no change at all in the basic security situation surrounding Taiwan. China has not given up its long-standing option of eventually taking back Taiwan, by force if necessary. Taiwan, for its part, is dependent on the backing by the United States for such matters as purchasing weapons.
　中台当局間の交流が本格化しても、台湾周辺の安全保障の構図には、依然変化がない。中国は武力統一の選択肢を放棄していない。台湾は、武器購入などで米国からの支援に依存している。

For Japan, Taiwan is most certainly an important neighbor for restraining China’s acts of hegemony in such areas as the East China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands.
　日本にとって、台湾は、尖閣諸島周辺を含む東シナ海などでの中国の覇権的行動をけん制する上でも重要な隣人である。

While watching closely what impact closer China-Taiwan ties will have on the future of the regional situation, Japan should make efforts to further boost its friendly relations with Taiwan.
中台接近が地域情勢に及ぼす影響を見極めながら、台湾との関係を密にしていくべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 14, 2014)
（2014年2月14日01時44分  読売新聞）