ＧＤＰマイナス 景気の失速回避に全力あげよ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 15, 2012)
All-out efforts needed to reverse business slowdown
ＧＤＰマイナス　景気の失速回避に全力あげよ（11月14日付・読売社説）

The fall in the nation's gross domestic product for the July-September quarter should be considered a sign of business slowdown. The nation faces a crucial moment of determining whether the economy will be able to avoid weakening even further.
　景気後退のサインとみるべきだ。日本経済の失速を回避できるかどうかの正念場である。

The real-term GDP for the July-September period dropped 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, marking the first negative growth in three quarters. The slide translated into an annualized 3.5 percent decline. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda expressed a sense of crisis, saying, "It's a dismal figure."
　今年７～９月期の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は前期比０・９％減と、３四半期ぶりのマイナス成長となった。年率に換算すると３・５％減で、野田首相は「厳しい数字だ」と危機感を示した。

This contraction is attributable to two chief factors: the drop in foreign demand caused by the slowdown of foreign economies; and a fall in personal consumption and investment in plants and equipment that together account for core domestic demand. A boost in public investment for rebuilding from last year's earthquake and tsunami disaster stopped short of making up for the overall decline.
　海外経済の減速に伴う外需の落ち込みに加え、個人消費と設備投資という内需の二本柱がそろって減少したことが主因だ。復興需要による公共投資の増加では、マイナスを補いきれなかった。

Domestic automobile sales have slackened due to the end of government subsidies for eco-friendly car purchases, and sales of household electrical appliances such as flat-screen TVs have remained sluggish. Increased uncertainty over corporate performance also has restrained corporate investment in plants and equipment.
　消費は、エコカー補助金の終了で自動車販売が苦戦し、薄型テレビなど家電の不振も続いている。企業業績の不透明感が強まり、設備投資が控えられた。

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Inaccurate recovery scenario

The government and the Bank of Japan sketched out a scenario in which they would wait for foreign economies to recover while sustaining demand at home through reconstruction projects in the hope that this would eventually lead to full-scale growth.
　政府・日銀は、復興需要で内需を支えながら海外経済の回復を待ち、本格的な成長につなげるシナリオを描いていたが、

However, as the slowdown in domestic demand has come earlier than they expected, their scenario is not playing out as they imagined. They must increase their vigilance and make all-out efforts to sustain the economy.
早すぎた内需減速で目算は外れつつある。警戒を強め、景気の下支えに万全を期さねばならない。

Of major concern is that there seems to be slim hope of an early recovery in foreign economies.
　懸念されるのは、海外経済の早期回復が望み薄なことだ。

Europe has fallen into a negative growth phase. The United States, meanwhile, is heading for a "fiscal cliff" from year-end to early next year that involves an end to various tax breaks including last year's temporary payroll tax cuts, thereby threatening to deal another blow to the global economy.
　欧州はマイナス成長に陥っている。米国も年末から来年にかけて減税打ち切りなど「財政の崖」が控えており、世界経済に打撃を与える恐れがある。

Also of major concern is a sharp drop in Japan's exports to China due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy and strained bilateral relations over the Senkaku Islands.
　中国経済の減速と尖閣諸島問題を巡る日中関係の悪化を受け、中国向け輸出が急減していることも大きな不安材料といえよう。

A government-planned small-scale emergency economic package using reserve funds is not strong enough to cope with such adverse conditions. The government must compile a supplementary budget as soon as possible and put together a full-fledged stimulus package.
　こうした逆風に対して、予備費を使った小粒の緊急経済対策では力不足が否めない。政府は補正予算を早期に編成し、本格的な景気対策を打ち出すべきだ。

However, as fiscal conditions remain strict, it is necessary to allocate budgets on a priority basis to public works projects that will have the greatest economic impact.
　ただし財政事情は厳しい。効果の高い公共事業などに、予算を重点配分する必要がある。

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Use private sector as spur

The development and successful commercialization of private-sector innovation is the biggest driving force for economic growth. Future business opportunities can be expected in such growth industries as environment-related businesses and medical services.
　経済成長は、民間の創意で「売れる商品」を開発し、普及させていくことが最大の推進力となる。特に、環境関連や医療などの成長分野は今後、ビジネスチャンスの拡大が期待される。

We hope such moves will receive sufficient support for research and development projects through an investment tax credit and easing regulations that are hampering new business ventures. Adequate measures must be carefully devised after listening to the private sector's needs.
　投資減税による研究開発への支援や、新事業の障害となる規制の緩和などで後押ししたい。民間の要望に耳を傾け、的確な施策を厳選することが重要となる。

To make the most of the private sector's vigor, the domestic business environment must be improved first and foremost.
　民間活力を最大限に引き出すためには、国内の事業環境を改善させることも急務だろう。

Concrete measures to achieve this include correcting the strength of the record-high yen; lowering the corporate tax rate, which is high compared to international standards; and restarting idled nuclear reactors to avert a possible power shortage.
　具体的には、歴史的な超円高の是正や国際的に高い法人税率の引き下げ、原子力発電所の再稼働による電力不足の解消などだ。

Not least of all, the political situation must be stabilized to help shore up economic growth.
政治の安定を図り、日本の成長をテコ入れしなければならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 14, 2012)
（2012年11月14日01時20分  読売新聞）